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As of September 11, 2026, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) trades at $148.15. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $148.15, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $125.00 across 23 analysts. RSI at 52 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $91.12.
Moderna Inc. (MRNA)
Moderna Inc. NASDAQ
$148.15
11.53 (8.44%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
53 / 100
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is currently trading at $148.15, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($91.12 and $57.15), indicating positive short-to-medium term price momentum. However, the median analyst price target of $125.00 suggests a potential downside of 15.6% from current levels, contributing to a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. The company's recent earnings have shown some volatility, with a mix of beats and misses, but the latest quarter reported a positive surprise. Despite this, insider activity shows a net selling trend, with $48.3 million in sales versus no reported purchases, signaling a degree of caution from management. The biotechnology sector, represented by the XLV ETF, is experiencing an average revenue growth of 10.0%. Moderna's own revenue growth is projected at 8.00% for the current year and 16.00% for the next, indicating a recovery trajectory after recent declines. The company's negative EPS of -7.97 means its P/E ratio of -18.59 (negative due to EPS of $-7.97) billion. Key risks include the mixed analyst sentiment, the downside indicated by price targets, and the ongoing insider selling, which warrants close monitoring.
MRNA Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$138.04
Day Range
$135.29 to $149.68
Prev Close
$136.62
Volume
361.6K
52-Week Range
$22.28 to $176.66
Market Cap
$54.54B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Healthcare)
Performance vs XLV
Sector Position Analysis
Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-2% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards.
MRNA Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, MRNA beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
MRNA Analysis
Company's Health
4/5
12-Month Analyst Target
-15.62% Downside
Median of 23 analysts (12-month)
$125.00
AI Technical Analysis
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is currently trading above its 50-day SMA ($91.12) and 200-day SMA ($57.15), as well as its 20-day EMA ($129.30), indicating a generally bullish technical posture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51.6, suggesting neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD is positive at 16.96, further supporting the current upward trend. Key support levels are indicated by the moving averages, particularly the 50-day SMA. Resistance levels are less clearly defined by historical data, but the current price action suggests upward momentum could continue in the short term. Volume has been significantly lower than average recently, which could imply less conviction behind recent price movements. Investors should watch for any breaks below the 50-day SMA as a potential signal of weakening momentum.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transaction trends closely; the current 'Moderate Sell Signal' warrants caution.
- Given the 'Hold' consensus and downside indicated by the median price target, consider waiting for a clearer entry point or more positive analyst sentiment.
- The company's negative EPS makes traditional valuation metrics difficult to apply; focus on revenue growth projections and pipeline developments for future potential.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Significant Insider Selling
Insiders have sold $48.3 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence in near-term price appreciation.
Source: Insider SummaryBearish
Median Analyst Price Target Suggests Downside
The median Wall Street price target of $125.00 implies a 15.6% downside from the current stock price of $148.15.
Source: Wall Street SummaryBullish
Positive EPS Surprise in Latest Quarter
Moderna reported an EPS surprise of 4.37% in its most recent quarter ending July 31, 2026, suggesting improving operational performance.
Source: Earnings RecentBullish
Projected Revenue Growth
Revenue is expected to grow 8.00% in the current year and 16.00% in the next year, indicating a positive growth trajectory.
Source: Wall Street Revenue EstimatesMarket Outlook
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is expected to see its revenue grow by 8.00% in the current year and accelerate to 16.00% in the next year, suggesting a recovery in its business trajectory. The stock's current trading price above key moving averages indicates positive short-term momentum. However, the median Wall Street price target of $125.00, which is below the current price of $148.15, suggests that analysts believe the stock may be overvalued at present. Potential catalysts for upside could include stronger-than-expected clinical trial results for its pipeline drugs or significant new vaccine approvals. Conversely, downside risks include continued insider selling, a failure to meet revenue growth targets, or increased competition in the biotechnology space. The 'Hold' consensus rating reflects this uncertainty, suggesting investors should await clearer signals before making a significant commitment.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 54.54B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | N/A (Negative EPS) |
| EPS (TTM) | -7.97 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 52 Week High | 176.66 |
| 52 Week Low | 22.28 |
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a current market capitalization of $54.5 billion and negative EPS of -7.97, making traditional P/E ratio analysis inapplicable. Revenue growth is projected to rebound, with an estimated 8.00% increase for the current year and 16.00% for the next, signaling a recovery from previous declines. The company's latest quarterly earnings report showed a positive surprise of 4.37% on EPS, indicating some operational improvements. While the company's revenue growth projections are positive, the negative EPS and the lack of a P/E ratio suggest that valuation is currently driven by future growth expectations rather than current profitability. The median analyst price target of $125.00, which is below the current stock price of $148.15, implies that Wall Street analysts believe the stock is currently overvalued relative to its future prospects and sector averages. Further analysis of the balance sheet and cash flow would be necessary to fully assess its financial health.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) recently reported earnings with a positive surprise of 4.37% in its latest quarter ending July 31, 2026, with actual EPS of -1.97 against an estimate of -2.06. This follows a pattern of mixed earnings performance, including a significant beat in the May 22, 2026, quarter (32.84% surprise) and another beat in the May 1, 2026, quarter (12.37% surprise). However, the March 17, 2026, quarter showed a miss in price reaction despite a 54.76% EPS surprise. The company's revenue is projected to grow 8.00% in the current year and 16.00% in the next, indicating a path towards recovery.
Key Risks
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) faces several key risks, including a 'Hold' consensus rating from Wall Street and a median price target suggesting a 15.6% downside from current levels. Also, significant insider selling totaling $48.3 million with no corresponding purchases indicates a lack of confidence from management regarding near-term stock appreciation. The company's negative EPS also presents a challenge for traditional valuation metrics, making future growth expectations the primary driver of its stock price.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 51.60 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 16.96 |
| SMA 50 | 91.12 |
| SMA 200 | 57.15 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($91.12) above the 200-day SMA ($57.15), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.29
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.26
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.20
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
MRNA Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$146.66
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
AGGRESSIVE
$148.15
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$102.66
MAX LOSS
-30.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (51.6) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$151.06
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$154.00
+5% (Conservative)
+4.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$158.40
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
High-Volatility Risk Disclaimer
MRNA is classified as a high-volatility asset (Daily Vol: 32.95%). Aggressive price swings can lead to rapid capital loss. Liquidity risks may prevent exiting trades at desired prices. This AI-generated analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MRNA in December 2018 would be worth about $73,452 today, compared with about $28,753 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MRNA today could grow to about $42,529 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $322,650 and a bear case around $5,606. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MRNA Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $264 for MRNA by 2030 in the base case, from $148 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $73.38. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MRNA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $90.21 | $171 | $325 |
| 2028 | $79.96 | $198 | $490 |
| 2029 | $75.38 | $229 | $694 |
| 2030 | $73.38 | $264 | $952 |
| 2031 | $72.90 | $306 | $1,280 |
| 2032 | $73.49 | $353 | $1,697 |
| 2033 | $74.90 | $408 | $2,224 |
| 2034 | $77.00 | $472 | $2,889 |
| 2035 | $79.73 | $545 | $3,727 |
| 2036 | $83.05 | $630 | $4,780 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MRNA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. MRNA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MRNA Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$48.3M
13 Transactions
Insiders
11
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.7M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2022 | AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
|
Sell | 310.0K | $40.9M |
| Jun 11, 2024 | AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
Director
|
Sell | 202.8K | $30.1M |
| Aug 5, 2026 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 499.2K | $28.7M |
| Dec 15, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $18.8M |
| Dec 22, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $18.6M |
| Aug 4, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $17.0M |
| Nov 17, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $16.5M |
| Dec 8, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $16.2M |
| Dec 29, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $16.1M |
| Dec 1, 2022 | BANCEL STEPHANE J
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 90.0K | $15.9M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Moderna's (MRNA) current stock price and consensus rating?
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is currently trading at $148.15 per share. The consensus rating among Wall Street analysts is 'Hold', with a consensus score of 53 out of 100.
What is the median analyst price target for Moderna (MRNA) stock?
The median analyst price target for Moderna (MRNA) is $125.00, which represents a potential downside of 15.6% from its current trading price of $148.15.
Are Moderna (MRNA) insiders buying or selling stock?
Moderna (MRNA) insiders are net sellers of the stock. There have been no reported insider purchases, while total sales amount to $48.3 million in recent filings, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.
What are Moderna's (MRNA) recent earnings performance and future revenue projections?
Moderna (MRNA) has shown mixed earnings results, with the latest quarter ending July 31, 2026, reporting a positive EPS surprise of 4.37%. Revenue is projected to grow 8.00% in the current year and 16.00% in the next year.
How does Moderna's (MRNA) stock performance compare to its sector averages?
Moderna (MRNA) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($91.12 and $57.15), indicating positive technical momentum. However, its valuation metrics are difficult to assess due to negative EPS. The company's projected revenue growth of 8.00% for the current year is slightly below the Healthcare sector average of 10.00%.
What are the main risks facing Moderna (MRNA) stock?
Key risks for Moderna (MRNA) include the 'Hold' consensus rating, a median price target suggesting downside, significant insider selling, and the challenge of interpreting valuation with negative EPS. These factors highlight potential headwinds for the stock.
What is Moderna's (MRNA) stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Moderna's (MRNA) stock forecast for 2030 shows a base case price of $264.34, with a downside projection of $73.38 and an upside projection of $952.25. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees.