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As of October 11, 2026, Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) trades at $91.97. RSI at 57 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $88.97.
Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG)
Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF NYSE
$91.97
0.6600 (0.72%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
75 / 100
Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) offers broad exposure to large-cap U.S. growth stocks, tracking a market-cap-weighted growth index. The fund's strategy focuses on companies emphasizing earnings and revenue expansion, with significant concentration in technology (57.75%), communication services (14.53%), and consumer cyclical (11.29%) sectors. While VUG has demonstrated strong long-term performance, its year-to-date return of 11.13% has lagged its category's 2.85% return, and its 1-month return of 2.18% has also underperformed the category's 12.27%. However, its 3-year and 5-year returns show a positive trend against its category.
VUG Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$91.84
Day Range
$91.49 to $92.13
Prev Close
$91.31
Volume
4.34M
52-Week Range
$69.63 to $93.00
Market Cap
$20.21B
VUG Fund Facts
Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to provide broad exposure to large-cap U.S. growth stocks. The fund is designed to track a market-cap-weighted growth index, giving investors diversified access to companies that typically emphasize earnings and revenue expansion rather than value characteristics.
Issuer
Vanguard
Category
Large Growth
Inception
Jan 26, 2004
Expense ratio
0.03%
Net assets
$392.07B
NAV
$92.00
Distribution yield
0.38%
YTD return
11.13%
Turnover
12.00%
Sector weights
Healthcare
4.6%
Realestate
1.0%
Technology
57.8%
Industrials
4.5%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3%
Consumer Defensive
1.3%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | VUG | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 11.13% | 2.85% |
| 1 month | 2.18% | 12.27% |
| 3 months | 4.47% | 3.28% |
| 1 year | 13.09% | 29.03% |
| 3 years | 26.30% | 23.49% |
| 5 years | 13.87% | 10.17% |
| 10 years | 17.94% | 15.87% |
Fund reference data as of Oct 11, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
VUG Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
Momentum has shifted for VUG: the RSI has moved to 56.5, indicating neutral momentum. The ETF is currently trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with values of 90.52, 88.97, and 83.49 respectively. This positioning suggests an overall uptrend. The ETF's latest volume of 4,337,600 is 24.7% below its average volume, indicating a lack of strong conviction behind recent price action.
ProTips
- Consider VUG as a core holding for long-term growth exposure, particularly if you believe in the continued dominance of large-cap technology companies.
- Monitor sector rotation trends; a sustained shift towards value stocks could impact VUG's performance negatively.
- Given its concentration, consider diversifying with a value-oriented ETF or a broader market index fund to balance risk.
Market Outlook
The outlook for Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) remains cautiously optimistic, driven by its strong exposure to the technology sector and its long-term growth potential. While recent performance has lagged its category, the fund's positioning above key moving averages suggests underlying strength. The 6-12 month forecast hinges on continued innovation within its core holdings and a favorable macroeconomic environment for growth stocks. A shift in market sentiment favoring value over growth could present a headwind, potentially testing its support levels around the 50-day SMA.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.96
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.97
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.49
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.15
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with VUG? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 20.21B |
|---|---|
| Yield | 0.38% |
| Day High | $92.13 |
| Day Low | $91.49 |
| 52 Week High | 93.00 |
| 52 Week Low | 69.63 |
Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF is built upon a foundation of large-cap U.S. growth equities, with technology being its dominant sector at 57.75%. This concentration highlights a focus on innovation and expansion-driven companies. The fund's low expense ratio of 0.03% translates to a cost of $3.00 per $10,000 invested, making it a cost-effective vehicle for accessing this segment. With net assets totaling $392.07 billion, VUG is a substantial fund, reflecting significant investor trust and market presence. The sector's health is largely tied to the performance of major technology and communication services companies.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its underlying holdings, heavily weighted in technology and communication services, are expected to drive its performance. These sectors are characterized by high growth potential, with companies often reinvesting heavily in research and development. The overall earnings trend for these sectors will directly influence VUG's aggregate performance. Investors should monitor the earnings reports of VUG's top constituents, such as Microsoft and Apple, for insights into the fund's future trajectory.
Key Risks
The primary risk for VUG lies in its significant sector concentration, particularly in technology, making it vulnerable to downturns in that specific industry. Also, as a growth-oriented ETF, it carries higher volatility compared to broad market or value-focused funds. A sharp rotation out of growth stocks into value stocks could negatively impact its performance.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 56.50 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 1.01 |
| SMA 50 | 88.97 |
| SMA 200 | 83.49 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($88.97) above the 200-day SMA ($83.49), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
VUG Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Long entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$90.13
2% below current price (Pullback entry)
Lower risk, wait for pullback
Aggressive
$91.97
Buy at current price
Higher risk, immediate entry
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$87.43
MAX LOSS
-3.0%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (56.5) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$94.64
+5% (Conservative)
+2.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$99.14
+10% (Conservative)
+7.8% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$103.65
+15% (Conservative)
+12.7% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of VUG is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on October 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in VUG in October 2016 would be worth about $49,966 today, compared with about $36,479 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VUG today could grow to about $30,776 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $73,979 and a bear case around $12,803. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
VUG ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $144 for VUG by 2030 in the base case, from $91.97 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $82.80. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VUG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $77.99 | $103 | $136 |
| 2028 | $77.79 | $115 | $170 |
| 2029 | $79.70 | $129 | $208 |
| 2030 | $82.80 | $144 | $251 |
| 2031 | $86.78 | $161 | $300 |
| 2032 | $91.52 | $181 | $356 |
| 2033 | $96.99 | $202 | $421 |
| 2034 | $103 | $226 | $495 |
| 2035 | $110 | $253 | $581 |
| 2036 | $118 | $283 | $680 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using VUG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG)?
The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF has an expense ratio of 0.03%, which equates to a cost of $3.00 per $10,000 invested annually.
What sectors does the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) hold?
VUG is heavily concentrated in Technology (57.75%), followed by Communication Services (14.53%) and Consumer Cyclical (11.29%).
What is the distribution yield for the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG)?
The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF has a distribution yield of 0.38%.
How has the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) performed against its category over the past year?
Over the past year, VUG returned 13.09% while its category returned 29.03%, indicating underperformance against its peers.
What is the price prediction for VUG ETF in 2030?
Based on a Monte Carlo simulation, the projected base price for VUG ETF in 2030 is $144.19, with a downside projection of $82.80 and an upside projection of $251.09. These are statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.
What are the key risks associated with investing in VUG?
Key risks include significant concentration in the technology sector and higher volatility inherent in growth-focused investments, making it susceptible to sector-specific downturns and rotations out of growth stocks.
How does the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) compare to its benchmark index?
VUG is designed to track a market-cap-weighted growth index, providing diversified access to large-cap U.S. growth companies, and is managed by Vanguard as a low-cost passive investment.