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As of September 11, 2026, ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) trades at $31.67. RSI at 36 is in neutral territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $32.36.
ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX)
ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF CBOE
$31.67
-0.1750 (-0.55%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
25 / 100
The ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) is currently trading below its key moving averages, including the 20-day EMA at $32.46, the 50-day SMA at $32.36, and the 200-day SMA at $32.11. This indicates a bearish price trend. The fund's year-to-date return of 11.96% trails its category's 13.51% return. Recent performance also shows weakness, with a 3-month return of -13.32% compared to the category's 10.83%. The ETF's assets under management stand at $768.02 million, with an expense ratio of 0.75%.
ARKX Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$31.55
Day Range
$31.50 to $32.16
Prev Close
$31.84
Volume
479.5K
52-Week Range
$25.16 to $37.89
ARKX Fund Facts
ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that focuses on companies involved in space exploration, space infrastructure, and defense innovation. The fund typically invests at least 80% of its assets in domestic and foreign equity securities tied to its theme, giving it exposure to businesses across orbital and sub-orbital aerospace, next-generation defense technologies, enabling technologies, and aerospace beneficiaries.
Issuer
ARK ETF Trust
Category
Technology
Inception
Mar 30, 2021
Expense ratio
0.75%
Net assets
$768.02M
NAV
$32.55
Distribution yield
0.00%
YTD return
11.96%
Turnover
24.00%
Sector weights
Technology
24.6%
Industrials
60.1%
Consumer Cyclical
10.2%
Communication Services
5.1%
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | ARKX | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 11.96% | 13.51% |
| 1 month | 5.82% | 19.10% |
| 3 months | -13.32% | 10.83% |
| 1 year | 23.65% | 54.99% |
| 3 years | 30.38% | 27.86% |
| 5 years | 9.01% | 9.93% |
| 10 years | N/A | 19.36% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 11, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
ARKX Analysis
AI Technical Analysis
ARKX is currently facing resistance at its 20-day Exponential Moving Average of $32.46, and its 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages at $32.36 and $32.11, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.85, indicating bearish momentum. The Stochastic indicator is at 8.46, suggesting oversold conditions within the current bearish trend. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -133.37 further supports a bearish outlook. The ETF's price of $31.67 is below all these key technical levels.
ProTips
- Monitor the performance of the Industrials sector, as it represents the largest portion of ARKX's holdings.
- Compare ARKX's trailing returns against its category average to assess its ongoing performance.
- Consider the expense ratio of 0.75% when evaluating the total cost of holding this ETF.
- Be aware of the high concentration risk due to the fund's focus on specific innovative industries.
Market Outlook
The outlook for ARKX is cautious, given its current bearish technical trend and underperformance relative to its category. While the long-term thesis for space and defense innovation remains intact, the fund's active management and sector concentration expose it to significant volatility. Investors should monitor the fund's ability to regain upward momentum and outperform its peers. Over the next 6-12 months, ARKX will likely remain sensitive to broader market sentiment and specific news within the space and defense industries. A sustained move above the $32.11 to $32.46 resistance zone would be required to signal a potential trend reversal. Failure to do so could lead to further downside, testing lower support levels.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.74
Strong correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.74
Strong correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
+0.44
Moderate correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.25
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
Calculating correlation...
Key Statistics
| Yield | 0.00% |
|---|---|
| Day High | $32.16 |
| Day Low | $31.50 |
| 52 Week High | 37.89 |
| 52 Week Low | 25.16 |
The ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, with 60.07% of its assets allocated there. Technology follows at 24.61%, with Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services making up the remainder. This concentration suggests that the fund's performance is highly dependent on the health and trends within the aerospace, defense, and related technology industries. The fund's overview highlights its focus on companies involved in space exploration, infrastructure, and defense innovation, including those in aerospace, communications, semiconductors, and robotics.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Its top holdings are subject to earnings reports. The most recent earnings report for a key holding showed an EPS surprise of 13.1% ($1.64 actual vs $1.45 estimate), though the stock price declined by 6.38% following the announcement. This suggests that even positive earnings surprises may not translate into immediate stock price appreciation in the current market environment for this sector.
Key Risks
The primary risk for ARKX is its high concentration in the Industrials sector (60.07%), making it vulnerable to downturns in aerospace and defense. Additionally, the fund's underperformance relative to its category, particularly over the 1-year and 3-month periods, highlights a risk of continued lagging returns. The bearish technical indicators, including the RSI and price being below key moving averages, suggest ongoing downward pressure.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 35.85 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.24 |
| SMA 50 | 32.36 |
| SMA 200 | 32.11 |
RSI
Bearish
SMA Cross
Neutral
Price vs SMA
Bearish
MACD
Bearish
Price is trading below the 50-day SMA.
ARKX Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
🔴 SHORT ENTRY (click to switch)
CONSERVATIVE
$32.30
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
AGGRESSIVE
$31.67
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$33.31
MAX LOSS
-3.1%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (35.9) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$30.68
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$29.07
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$27.45
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
ETF Investment Disclaimer
This AI-generated analysis of ARKX is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETFs are subject to market risk including possible loss of principal. Performance depends on the underlying index or assets tracked. Read the fund prospectus before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Generated on September 11, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in ARKX in March 2021 would be worth about $15,599 today, compared with about $19,199 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ARKX today could grow to about $21,328 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $65,569 and a bear case around $6,937. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
ARKX ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $42.87 for ARKX by 2030 in the base case, from $31.67 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $21.07. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ARKX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $23.95 | $34.16 | $48.72 |
| 2028 | $22.30 | $36.84 | $60.88 |
| 2029 | $21.48 | $39.74 | $73.52 |
| 2030 | $21.07 | $42.87 | $87.23 |
| 2031 | $20.90 | $46.24 | $102 |
| 2032 | $20.90 | $49.88 | $119 |
| 2033 | $21.03 | $53.81 | $138 |
| 2034 | $21.26 | $58.04 | $158 |
| 2035 | $21.57 | $62.61 | $182 |
| 2036 | $21.97 | $67.53 | $208 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ARKX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expense ratio for the ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX)?
The ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF has an expense ratio of 0.75%. This means that for every $10,000 invested, $75 would be allocated to fund expenses annually.
What sectors does ARKX focus on and how concentrated is it?
ARKX is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, holding 60.07% of its assets there. Technology accounts for 24.61%, with smaller allocations to Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services. This thematic focus provides targeted exposure to space and defense innovation.
What is the distribution yield for ARKX?
The ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF currently has a distribution yield of 0%.
How has ARKX performed against its category over different timeframes?
In the year-to-date period, ARKX returned 11.96% compared to its category's 13.51%. Over the past year, the fund returned 23.65% while its category returned 54.99%. The 3-month return for ARKX was -13.32%, lagging the category's 10.83%.
What are the key technical indicators for ARKX?
ARKX shows bearish momentum with an RSI at 35.9 and is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($32.36 and $32.11). The 20-day EMA is at $32.46.
What is the outlook for ARKX based on its strategy?
ARKX aims to capture innovation in space and defense, a sector with long-term growth potential driven by technological advancements and increased commercial and governmental activity. However, its active management and thematic focus can lead to higher volatility and sector-specific risks.
What are the main risks associated with investing in ARKX?
Key risks include significant concentration in the Industrials sector, potential underperformance relative to broader market categories, and the inherent volatility associated with innovative and emerging industries like space and defense.
What is the price prediction for ARKX ETF in 2030?
Based on a Monte Carlo simulation, the base case price prediction for the ARKX ETF in 2030 is $42.87. The simulation also indicates a downside price of $21.07 and an upside price of $87.23. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets or guarantees.