As of September 26, 2026, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) trades at $79.32. RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, and the price is below its 50-day average of $82.25.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF NASDAQ
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is currently trading at $79.32, showing a significant downward trend. The ETF is positioned below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with its 20-day EMA at $81.22 and 50-day SMA at $82.25. This technical setup suggests a bearish momentum in the short to medium term. The fund's strategy focuses on long-duration U.S. Treasury securities, aiming to provide investors with exposure to the long end of the government bond market for duration and diversification purposes.
TLT's recent performance indicates a challenging environment for long-term bonds. Year-to-date, the fund has returned -2.88%, underperforming its category return of -0.67%. This underperformance extends to its 1-year and 5-year trailing returns as well, although it has outperformed its category over the 3-year period. The fund's substantial net assets of $47.05 billion and an expense ratio of 0.15% make it a significant player in the bond ETF market, offering concentrated access to long-maturity sovereign debt.
TLT Price Analysis
Market Metrics
TLT Fund Facts
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is a fixed-income exchange-traded fund designed to provide targeted exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasury securities. The fund seeks to track the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, holding publicly issued government bonds with remaining maturities of more than twenty years. Its portfolio is focused almost entirely on U.S. Treasury debt, making it a core instrument for investors and institutions seeking broad access to the long end of the government bond market.
Trailing returns vs category
| Period | TLT | Category |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | -2.88% | -0.67% |
| 1 month | 0.76% | -0.69% |
| 3 months | -2.64% | -0.43% |
| 1 year | -0.33% | 0.41% |
| 3 years | -1.05% | -2.02% |
| 5 years | -8.00% | -5.40% |
| 10 years | -2.42% | -1.10% |
Fund reference data as of Sep 26, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change.
TLT Analysis
At $79.32, TLT exhibits an oversold condition with an RSI of 27.53, well below the 30 threshold. The ETF is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average ($81.22), its 50-day simple moving average ($82.25), and its 200-day simple moving average ($85.67). The MACD is at -0.65, indicating bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator is at 13.50, also suggesting oversold conditions. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -212.14, reinforcing the oversold signal.
The price is currently below all key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA acting as resistance at $82.25 and the 200-day SMA at $85.67. The significant volume increase, with the latest volume at 62.51 million compared to the average of 43.29 million, suggests strong selling pressure or increased investor interest at current levels. The oversold technical indicators point to a potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish until the price can reclaim its key moving averages.
- Consider TLT for its significant interest rate sensitivity, suitable for hedging against falling rates.
- Monitor inflation data and Federal Reserve statements closely, as they are key drivers of TLT's performance.
- The ETF's oversold technical indicators suggest a potential short-term buying opportunity, but the long-term trend remains dependent on macroeconomic shifts.
- TLT can serve as a diversifier within a broader portfolio, particularly for investors seeking to balance equity risk with fixed-income exposure.
The outlook for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is cautiously optimistic, contingent on shifts in monetary policy and inflation expectations. Currently, TLT is trading at $79.32, exhibiting oversold technical conditions with an RSI of 27.53 and trading below key moving averages. This suggests a potential for a near-term rebound as the market digests current interest rate levels.
Over the next 6-12 months, TLT's performance will likely be dictated by the Federal Reserve's actions and inflation data. If inflation moderates and the Fed signals a pivot towards easing monetary policy, long-duration bonds like those held by TLT could see significant price appreciation. Conversely, persistent inflation or a delayed easing cycle would continue to weigh on the ETF. The fund's substantial net assets and low expense ratio provide a stable foundation for investors seeking long-term duration exposure.
Market Correlations
How this etf moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
How does any other asset move with TLT? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Key Statistics
| Net Assets (Market Cap) | 9.46B |
|---|---|
| Yield | 4.90% |
| Day High | $79.46 |
| Day Low | $78.83 |
| 52 Week High | 92.19 |
| 52 Week Low | 78.83 |
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is built upon a portfolio of long-duration U.S. Treasury securities, with 99.6% allocated to bonds. This focus provides significant interest rate sensitivity, making it a core holding for investors seeking to manage duration risk or diversify fixed-income exposure. The fund tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, offering concentrated exposure to sovereign debt with remaining maturities exceeding twenty years.
Managed by iShares, TLT holds substantial net assets of $47.05 billion, indicating strong investor confidence and liquidity. The expense ratio is a competitive 0.15%, translating to a cost of $15.00 per $10,000 invested annually. While the fund's strategy is straightforward, its performance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly inflation expectations and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which dictate the trajectory of long-term interest rates.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
As an ETF focused on long-duration U.S. Its performance is intrinsically linked to the interest rate environment and the creditworthiness of the U.S. government. The underlying assets are government debt, which carries minimal credit risk but is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. Aggregate trends in U.S. Treasury yields, influenced by inflation data and central bank policy, are the primary drivers of TLT's value.
The current macroeconomic backdrop, with potential shifts in inflation and monetary policy, directly impacts the value of long-dated bonds. Investors watch inflation reports and Federal Reserve statements closely, as these can signal future interest rate movements. Higher inflation or a hawkish Fed stance typically leads to rising yields and falling bond prices, negatively affecting TLT, while the opposite scenario can be beneficial.
Key Risks
The primary risk for TLT is interest rate risk, given its focus on long-duration bonds. A significant increase in interest rates would lead to a substantial decline in the ETF's net asset value. Concentration risk is also a factor, as the fund holds a concentrated portfolio of long-term U.S. Treasury debt, making it highly sensitive to movements in this specific market segment. Also, potential shifts in monetary policy or unexpected inflation spikes could exacerbate these risks.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 27.53 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.65 |
| SMA 50 | 82.25 |
| SMA 200 | 85.67 |
TLT Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Long entry pick an entry style
Risk Management
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in TLT in September 2016 would be worth about $5,761 today, compared with about $36,004 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TLT today could grow to about $9,973 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $18,198 and a bear case around $5,466. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
TLT ETF Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $79.23 for TLT by 2030 in the base case, from $79.32 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $54.17. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TLT's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $65.56 | $79.30 | $95.91 |
| 2028 | $60.58 | $79.28 | $104 |
| 2029 | $57.01 | $79.26 | $110 |
| 2030 | $54.17 | $79.23 | $116 |
| 2031 | $51.77 | $79.21 | $121 |
| 2032 | $49.70 | $79.19 | $126 |
| 2033 | $47.87 | $79.17 | $131 |
| 2034 | $46.22 | $79.15 | $136 |
| 2035 | $44.72 | $79.13 | $140 |
| 2036 | $43.35 | $79.11 | $144 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TLT's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.