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As of October 10, 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) trades at $145.60. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Hold with a fair value of $145.60, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $161.00 across 27 analysts. RSI at 42 is in neutral territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $143.46.
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
Merck & Co., Inc. NYSE
$145.60
3.220 (2.26%)
At close: Oct 9, 4:00 PM EDT
AI Analyst Consensus
55 / 100
Merck & Co. (MRK) is currently trading at $145.60, aligning with its fair value and showing a slight upside to the median analyst target price of $161.00. The company operates within the Healthcare sector, specifically Drug Manufacturers - General, and is represented by the XLV ETF. Despite a positive consensus from Wall Street analysts, who collectively rate the stock a 'Buy' with a score of 72, and forward revenue growth estimates of 3.00% for the next year, significant insider selling totaling $72.4 million in recent filings presents a notable headwind. Technically, MRK is positioned above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($143.46 and $123.90), indicating a generally positive trend. However, the RSI is neutral at 41.67, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The company's fundamentals show a profit margin of 4.77% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.28, which is slightly above the sector median of 1.28, but its return on equity at 6.96% is in line with the sector average. The high P/E ratio of 113.00, compared to the sector average of 31.90, suggests a premium valuation, potentially driven by future growth expectations.
MRK Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$141.37
Day Range
$141.36 to $146.68
Prev Close
$142.38
Volume
9.29M
52-Week Range
$78.03 to $156.92
Market Cap
$359.22B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Healthcare)
Performance vs XLV
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+254%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
MRK Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, MRK beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 4 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
MRK Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+10.58% Upside
Median of 27 analysts (12-month)
$161.00
AI Technical Analysis
Merck & Co. (MRK) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($143.46 and $123.90), indicating a generally upward trend. The 50-day SMA is acting as support, while the 200-day SMA is also providing a floor. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41.67, which is in neutral territory, suggesting a lack of strong momentum in either direction. The MACD is slightly negative at -0.39, hinting at potential bearish pressure, though it remains close to the zero line. Volume on the latest trading day was 9.29 million, slightly above the average of 8.52 million, indicating moderate investor interest. The current price is near the 20-day EMA of $145.05. Given the neutral RSI and slightly negative MACD, the stock may consolidate or face minor pullbacks unless new catalysts emerge.
ProTips
- Monitor upcoming clinical trial results and FDA approvals for key pipeline drugs, as these are critical catalysts for Merck & Co. (MRK).
- Given the neutral RSI and proximity to the 20-day EMA, consider waiting for a clearer technical signal or a pullback to support levels before initiating new positions.
- The significant insider selling warrants close attention; track any further transactions and consider their implications for management's confidence in the company's near-term prospects.
Key Catalysts
Bullish
Positive Clinical Trial Data for Key Drug Candidates
Positive results from ongoing clinical trials for Merck's pipeline drugs, such as Keytruda's expanded indications or new oncology treatments, could significantly boost future revenue and earnings potential.
Source: Company Pipeline UpdatesBullish
Stronger-than-Expected Forward Earnings Growth
If Merck surpasses the projected EPS of $9.49 for next year and revenue growth exceeds the estimated 4.00%, it could justify the current premium valuation and drive the stock price higher.
Source: Wall Street EstimatesBearish
Continued Insider Selling Pressure
Sustained or increased insider selling activity, especially by key executives, could signal a lack of confidence in the company's near-term outlook or suggest that current stock prices are considered overvalued by management.
Source: Insider Transaction FilingsBearish
Regulatory Hurdles or Drug Rejection
Any setbacks in regulatory approvals for new drugs or increased scrutiny on existing blockbuster products like Keytruda could negatively impact future revenue streams and stock performance.
Source: Regulatory FilingsNeutral
Quarterly Earnings Performance
Future quarterly earnings reports will be key in determining if Merck can consistently meet or exceed analyst expectations and demonstrate a clear path to sustained profitability following recent losses.
Source: Company Earnings ReportsMarket Outlook
Merck & Co. (MRK) is expected to see a significant rebound in earnings in the next fiscal year, with EPS projected to reach $9.49 from $2.73 in the current year, alongside revenue growth of 4.00%. The median analyst target price of $161.00 suggests a potential upside of 10.60% from the current price of $145.60, indicating a moderately positive outlook. However, this outlook is tempered by substantial insider selling and a high valuation multiple (P/E of 113.00). A key catalyst for upside would be continued positive clinical trial results or successful product launches that drive revenue growth beyond current estimates. Conversely, any failure to meet earnings expectations or increased regulatory scrutiny could exacerbate the bearish sentiment signaled by insider transactions.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 359.22B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 113.00 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.26 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.34% |
| 52 Week High | 156.92 |
| 52 Week Low | 78.03 |
Merck & Co. (MRK) trades at a P/E ratio of 113.00, significantly higher than the Healthcare sector average of 31.90, suggesting a premium valuation. Its price-to-sales ratio is 5.28, also above the sector median of 3.70. The company's profit margin stands at 4.77%, with an operating margin of -0.24%, indicating challenges in operational profitability despite positive net margins. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.28, matching the sector average, while its return on equity is 6.96%, in line with the sector median. Despite the high valuation multiples, forward estimates suggest revenue growth of 3.00% for the current year and 4.00% for the next. The company's EPS is projected to grow substantially next year to $9.49 from a current year estimate of $2.73, which is a significant turnaround from the current year's negative growth. This forward-looking growth potential may justify the current premium valuation.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Merck & Co. (MRK) has shown mixed earnings performance in recent quarters, with a notable beat in the quarter to December 2025, reporting EPS of $2.04 against an estimate of $2.01, a 1.49% surprise. However, the most recent quarter to June 2026 reported an EPS of -$0.13, significantly beating the estimate of -$0.26 with a 50% surprise, though the result was still a loss. Prior to that, the quarter to March 2026 also showed a loss, albeit with a positive surprise. The company's earnings trajectory indicates a pattern of losses in recent quarters, though estimates suggest a strong rebound in EPS for the next fiscal year.
Key Risks
The most significant risk for Merck & Co. (MRK) is the heavy insider selling, with $72.4 million in sales by insiders, signaling potential concerns about future performance or valuation. The high P/E ratio of 113.00 compared to the sector average of 31.90 also presents a valuation risk, suggesting the stock may be overvalued if future growth expectations are not met. Also, the company has reported losses in recent quarters, although forward estimates indicate a strong recovery.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 41.67 |
|---|---|
| MACD | -0.39 |
| SMA 50 | 143.46 |
| SMA 200 | 123.90 |
RSI
Neutral
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bearish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($143.46) above the 200-day SMA ($123.90), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.18
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.05
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.20
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.07
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MRK? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
Try
MRK Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Entry Strategies pick an entry style
Conservative
$144.14
Slight discount to current
Wait for small dip
Aggressive
$145.60
At current price
Enter now if confident
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$136.00
MAX LOSS
-5.7%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (41.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$148.47
+3% (Conservative)
+2.0% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$151.35
+5% (Conservative)
+3.9% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$155.68
+8% (Conservative)
+6.9% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MRK is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on October 10, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MRK in October 2016 would be worth about $23,879 today, compared with about $36,018 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
Compare with Another Ticker
Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MRK today could grow to about $21,921 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $56,640 and a bear case around $8,484. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MRK Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $199 for MRK by 2030 in the base case, from $146 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $109. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MRK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $117 | $157 | $213 |
| 2028 | $111 | $170 | $260 |
| 2029 | $110 | $184 | $310 |
| 2030 | $109 | $199 | $363 |
| 2031 | $110 | $216 | $422 |
| 2032 | $112 | $233 | $486 |
| 2033 | $114 | $252 | $558 |
| 2034 | $117 | $273 | $638 |
| 2035 | $120 | $295 | $726 |
| 2036 | $124 | $319 | $825 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MRK's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MRK Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$72.4M
22 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 867.1K | $87.1M |
| Nov 2, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 600.0K | $59.9M |
| Nov 9, 2021 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 663.9K | $54.6M |
| Nov 4, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 470.0K | $46.4M |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAVIS ROBERT M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 235.0K | $29.5M |
| Nov 7, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 235.8K | $23.5M |
| Nov 9, 2020 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 280.0K | $22.8M |
| Nov 1, 2018 | SCHECHTER ADAM H
Officer
|
Sell | 277.9K | $20.5M |
| Oct 5, 2020 | DAVIS ROBERT M
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 251.3K | $20.4M |
| Oct 2, 2018 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 279.9K | $20.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Merck & Co. (MRK) stock a buy right now?
Merck & Co. (MRK) has a 'Buy' consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $161.00, implying a 10.60% upside from the current price of $145.60. However, significant insider selling and a neutral technical outlook suggest caution, leading to a 'Hold' consensus score of 55.
What is Merck & Co.'s (MRK) fair value and upside potential?
Merck & Co.'s (MRK) fair value is estimated at $145.60, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside based on this metric. The median analyst target price is $161.00, suggesting a potential upside of 10.60%.
What are the key risks facing Merck & Co. (MRK)?
The primary risks for Merck & Co. (MRK) include substantial insider selling totaling $72.4 million, a high P/E ratio of 113.00 compared to the sector average, and recent quarterly losses, despite positive future earnings projections.
How does Merck & Co. (MRK) compare to its sector averages?
Merck & Co. (MRK) has a P/E ratio of 113.00, significantly higher than the Healthcare sector median of 31.90. Its price-to-sales ratio is 5.28 versus the sector median of 3.70. The company's debt-to-equity and return on equity are in line with sector averages.
What is the outlook for Merck & Co. (MRK) in the next 12 months?
The outlook for Merck & Co. (MRK) is cautiously optimistic, supported by analyst price targets suggesting a 10.60% upside and projected revenue growth of 3.00% for the current year. However, significant insider selling and a neutral technical RSI warrant close monitoring.
What are the recent earnings trends for Merck & Co. (MRK)?
Merck & Co. (MRK) has reported mixed earnings, with a beat on estimates in the quarter to December 2025 and the most recent quarter to June 2026, though both resulted in losses. Forward estimates indicate a strong EPS rebound for the next fiscal year.
What is MRK stock forecast for 2030?
Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Merck & Co. (MRK) has a base case projection of $199.30 for 2030, with a downside scenario of $109.34 and an upside scenario of $363.28. These are statistical outcomes, not price targets.