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As of September 15, 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) trades at $143.17. CleaRank Financial AI rates it Sell with a fair value of $143.17, in line with the current price. Wall Street's consensus target is $152.50 across 28 analysts. RSI at 23 is in oversold territory, and the price is above its 50-day average of $136.68.
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
Merck & Co., Inc. NYSE
$143.17
-1.680 (-1.16%)
Latest Price
AI Analyst Consensus
21 / 100
Merck & Co. (MRK) is trading at $143.17, below its 20-day EMA but above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($136.68 and $119.82). The stock is currently exhibiting a heavy insider sell signal, with $72.4 million in net sales reported in recent filings, indicating a lack of insider confidence. This selling pressure, coupled with an oversold RSI of 22.65, suggests potential for further price declines. Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $152.50, implying a 6.5% upside. However, the company's fundamental valuation appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 116.28 and a profit margin of 4.77%, which is below the sector median P/E of 31.9. The recent earnings reports have been mixed, with a significant EPS surprise of 50% in the quarter to June 2026, but overall negative EPS estimates for the current and next quarters. The company's revenue growth has been modest at 5.1%, and forward revenue estimates show only slight growth. While the stock is trading above key long-term moving averages, the prevailing insider selling and oversold technicals present significant near-term headwinds. The substantial insider selling, totaling $72.4 million, is a critical bearish signal that investors should monitor closely. Despite a generally positive outlook from analysts, the current technical and insider activity warrants caution.
MRK Price Analysis
Market Metrics
Open
$143.96
Day Range
$142.32 to $144.03
Prev Close
$144.85
Volume
64.9K
52-Week Range
$77.58 to $156.92
Market Cap
$357.37B
Peer Benchmarking
Valuation vs Sector (Healthcare)
Performance vs XLV
Sector Position Analysis
Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+265%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position.
MRK Financial Performance
Revenue vs. Earnings
Annual
Quarterly
Earnings Reality Check
Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, MRK beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 4 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats.
MRK Analysis
Company's Health
3/5
12-Month Analyst Target
+6.52% Upside
Median of 28 analysts (12-month)
$152.50
AI Technical Analysis
Merck & Co. (MRK) is trading below its 20-day EMA of $145.34, indicating short-term weakness, but remains above its 50-day SMA of $136.68 and 200-day SMA of $119.82, suggesting that the longer-term uptrend may still be intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 22.65, firmly in oversold territory, which could signal a potential bounce, but also indicates strong downward momentum. The MACD is at 2.37, suggesting bullish momentum, but this is contradicted by the RSI and the price action relative to the short-term EMA. Key support is seen at the 50-day SMA of $136.68, while resistance lies at the 20-day EMA of $145.34 and the current price of $143.17. Volume on the latest trading day was significantly below average, which is typical for a stock in an oversold condition. The chart structure, with the price below the 20-day EMA and the RSI significantly oversold, points towards a potential short-term pullback or consolidation. However, the sustained trading above longer-term moving averages suggests that the broader trend has not yet turned bearish. Investors should watch for a potential reversal pattern or a sustained move back above the 20-day EMA to confirm any upward price action.
ProTips
- Monitor insider transactions closely; the current heavy net selling signal suggests caution is warranted.
- Given the oversold RSI of 22.65, traders may look for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains uncertain without a clear catalyst.
- The high P/E ratio of 116.28 and negative operating margin warrant a conservative approach to valuation, especially considering the sector median P/E of 31.9.
Key Catalysts
Bearish
Heavy Insider Selling Pressure
Insiders have sold $72.4 million worth of stock, indicating a significant lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects.
Source: Insider Trading DataBearish
Oversold Technical Conditions
The RSI is at 22.65, signaling that the stock is technically oversold and could experience further downward price movement.
Source: Technical AnalysisBullish
Positive Earnings Surprise in Latest Quarter
Merck & Co. reported a 50% EPS surprise in the quarter to June 2026, beating estimates and potentially signaling improving operational performance.
Source: Earnings ReportBullish
Wall Street 'Buy' Consensus
A majority of Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $152.50, suggesting potential upside.
Source: Analyst RatingsMarket Outlook
Merck & Co. (MRK) faces a challenging near-term outlook due to significant insider selling and oversold technical conditions. The current price action below the 20-day EMA and a significantly oversold RSI suggest a potential for further downside, despite the stock trading above its longer-term moving averages. The high valuation multiples, including a P/E of 116.28, further add to concerns. The base case scenario for MRK anticipates a period of consolidation or potential decline, given the bearish insider signal and stretched valuation. Upside catalysts would need to overcome the current negative sentiment, potentially driven by stronger-than-expected clinical trial results or significant pipeline advancements not yet reflected in current estimates. Conversely, continued insider selling, negative earnings surprises, or increased competition could exacerbate downward pressure, pushing the stock towards its 50-day SMA support level.
Key Statistics
| Market Cap | 357.37B |
|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 116.28 |
| EPS (TTM) | 1.25 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% |
| 52 Week High | 156.92 |
| 52 Week Low | 77.58 |
Merck & Co. (MRK) presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a high P/E ratio of 116.28, significantly above the Healthcare sector median of 31.9, suggesting the stock is trading at a premium. Its Price-to-Sales ratio stands at 5.39, also above the sector median of 3.7. The company's profit margin is 4.77%, which is lower than the sector median of 6.9%, and its operating margin is negative at -0.24%. Return on Equity (ROE) is reported at 6.96%, aligning with the sector median. Despite these valuation concerns, forward estimates show potential for growth, with next year's EPS projected at $9.55 and revenue growth expected to be around 5.00% in the next year. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.28, which is higher than the sector average. While the company has a substantial dividend yield of 2.35%, the high P/E and negative operating margin raise questions about the sustainability of its current valuation, especially when compared to sector averages.
Earnings & Growth Analysis
Merck & Co. (MRK) has shown mixed recent earnings performance. The most recent quarter to June 2026 reported an EPS of -$0.13, which was a 50% surprise compared to an estimated -$0.26, and the stock saw a 0.26% price increase. Prior to this, the quarter to March 2026 also beat estimates with an EPS of -$1.28 versus an expected -$1.47, leading to a 2.73% stock price gain. However, the company has a history of negative EPS estimates for the current and next quarters, with current year EPS estimated at $2.75 and next year's at $9.55. Revenue growth has been modest, with current quarter estimates showing 0.00% year-over-year growth.
Key Risks
Merck & Co. (MRK) faces significant risks stemming from heavy insider selling, with $72.4 million in net sales, indicating a lack of confidence from management. The stock is also technically oversold with an RSI of 22.65, suggesting potential for further price declines despite longer-term moving averages remaining supportive. Also, the company's valuation appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 116.28 significantly exceeding the sector median, and a negative operating margin raises concerns about profitability.
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 22.65 |
|---|---|
| MACD | 2.37 |
| SMA 50 | 136.68 |
| SMA 200 | 119.82 |
RSI
Oversold
SMA Cross
Bullish
Price vs SMA
Bullish
MACD
Bullish
Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($136.68) above the 200-day SMA ($119.82), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 22.7 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup.
Market Correlations
How this stock moves relative to other assets
Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods.
S&P 500 (SPY)
+0.16
Weak correlation
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
+0.04
Weak correlation
Bitcoin (BTC)
-0.10
Weak correlation
Gold (XAU)
+0.06
Weak correlation
Check Custom Correlation
How does any other asset move with MRK? One year of daily closes, Pearson correlation.
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MRK Trade Plans
Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels
Select Your Trade Bias
Risk Tolerance
Conservative
2%
Aggressive
Portfolio Value
$
Position Size: Enter portfolio size →
Short entry pick an entry style
Conservative
$146.03
2% above current price
Lower risk, wait for rally
Aggressive
$143.17
Short at current price
Higher risk, chasing the move
Risk Management
STOP LOSS
$152.60
MAX LOSS
-4.5%
Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss
Calculated based on RSI (22.7) and current market volatility
Profit Targets (Based on Conservative Entry)
TARGET 1
$138.73
-5% (Conservative)
-3.1% (Aggressive)
TARGET 2
$131.43
-10% (Conservative)
-8.2% (Aggressive)
TARGET 3
$124.13
-15% (Conservative)
-13.3% (Aggressive)
Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3
Calculate Your Trade
Disclaimer
This AI-generated trade plan for MRK is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis is based on historical data patterns and technical indicators which may not predict future results. Stock trading involves risk of loss. Verify all data independently and consult a qualified financial advisor. Generated on September 15, 2026.Growth of $10,000
A $10,000 investment in MRK in September 2016 would be worth about $24,335 today, compared with about $35,344 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark.
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Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)
CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MRK today could grow to about $22,139 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $57,115 and a bear case around $8,582. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.
MRK Stock Price Prediction: 2030
CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $197 for MRK by 2030 in the base case, from $143 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $108. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MRK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.
| Year | Downside (10th pct) | Base case | Upside (90th pct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $115 | $155 | $209 |
| 2028 | $110 | $168 | $256 |
| 2029 | $108 | $182 | $305 |
| 2030 | $108 | $197 | $358 |
| 2031 | $109 | $213 | $416 |
| 2032 | $111 | $231 | $481 |
| 2033 | $113 | $250 | $552 |
| 2034 | $116 | $270 | $631 |
| 2035 | $119 | $293 | $719 |
| 2036 | $123 | $317 | $818 |
Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MRK's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice.
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MRK Insider Trading Analysis
Bought
None
No open-market buys
Sold
$72.4M
22 Transactions
Insiders
14
Active Traders
Avg Transaction
$3.3M
Large trades
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 867.1K | $87.1M |
| Nov 2, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 600.0K | $59.9M |
| Nov 9, 2021 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 663.9K | $54.6M |
| Nov 4, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 470.0K | $46.4M |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAVIS ROBERT M
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 235.0K | $29.5M |
| Nov 7, 2022 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Officer and Director
|
Sell | 235.8K | $23.5M |
| Nov 9, 2020 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 280.0K | $22.8M |
| Nov 1, 2018 | SCHECHTER ADAM H
Officer
|
Sell | 277.9K | $20.5M |
| Oct 5, 2020 | DAVIS ROBERT M
Chief Financial Officer
|
Sell | 251.3K | $20.4M |
| Oct 2, 2018 | FRAZIER KENNETH C
Chief Executive Officer
|
Sell | 279.9K | $20.2M |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is Merck & Co. (MRK) stock a buy right now?
Merck & Co. (MRK) is currently rated as a Sell based on significant insider selling and oversold technical conditions. While Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $152.50, the stock's high P/E ratio and negative operating margin present fundamental concerns.
What is Merck & Co.'s (MRK) stock price forecast for 2030?
Merck & Co.'s (MRK) long-range projection for 2030 estimates a base case price of $196.75, with a downside scenario at $108.05 and an upside scenario at $358.29. These figures are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation and not definitive price targets.
What are the key technical levels for Merck & Co. (MRK)?
Merck & Co. (MRK) is trading below its 20-day EMA of $145.34, indicating short-term weakness. Key support is found at the 50-day SMA of $136.68, while resistance is near the 20-day EMA. The RSI is significantly oversold at 22.65.
What is the insider activity for Merck & Co. (MRK)?
Insider activity for Merck & Co. (MRK) shows a heavy net sell signal, with $876.0M in total sales versus $1.6M in total purchases in recent filings. This indicates a lack of insider confidence in the stock's near-term prospects.
How does Merck & Co. (MRK) compare to its sector averages?
Merck & Co. (MRK) trades at a P/E ratio of 116.28, significantly higher than the Healthcare sector median of 31.9. Its profit margin of 4.77% is below the sector median of 6.9%, and its revenue growth of 5.1% is also lower than the sector median of 8.1%.
What are the recent earnings results for Merck & Co. (MRK)?
Merck & Co. (MRK) reported a positive EPS surprise of 50% for the quarter ending June 2026, with actual EPS of -$0.13 against an estimate of -$0.26. However, EPS estimates for the current and next quarters remain negative.
What is the overall Wall Street sentiment for Merck & Co. (MRK)?
Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus for Merck & Co. (MRK), with 15 Buy ratings and 8 Hold ratings out of 28 analysts. The median price target is $152.50, suggesting a potential 6.5% upside from the current price.