Gold on the Rise: Record Highs in Q4 2025

Gold Expert Predictions for Q4 2025

Wall Street is broadly bullish, but forecasts differ broadly:

• Goldman Sachs now sees year-end 2025 at $3,700/oz (up from their earlier $3,300 call). Their baseline range was $3,650 to $3,950, and in a recession scenario they saw $3,880.  However, if there are massive “panic cuts” by the Fed or damage to the Fed’s independence then this could send prices racing toward $4,500.
• J.P. Morgan pegs year-end around $3,675, with a potential push to $4,000 by Q2 2026 if macro conditions align and demand from investors or central banks remains at peak levels.
• Deutsche Bank is more conservative, sticking to a $3,500 base target, but admits a run toward $3,800 to 4,000 is possible if geopolitical risks flare.

Not everyone buys the bull case. Citigroup in its bearish case, sees prices dipping to $2,500 to $2,700 in H2 2026 driven by weaker investment demand amid improving global growth. Important to note, that since their bearish outlook in June 2025, where they forecasted that gold will dip below $3000, they have since revised to a bullish stance of $3300 in Q4 of 2025.

Most analysts, over 75% in polls at the time, thought $3,800+ was achievable before year-end. Gold went well past that, ending 2025 above $4,300.

CleaRank’s 2025 Gold Calls

Jacob Bakshi, a senior derivatives and broker strategy specialist at CleaRank, together with his team forecasted on May 7th 2025 on the official CleaRank X account (@Clearank), when gold was trading at $3,340/oz, that it’ll go well beyond the $4000 level in 2025, possibly leveling out at $4200-$4400.

At the time, Jacob explained his bullish stance, which was well above any other expert forecast:

“The derivatives market is telling you institutions aren’t just hedging, they’re positioning for a structural supply squeeze. At this point, $4,200 isn’t a dream target. It’s the logical next step.”

Jacob Bakshi, Senior Market Strategist, CleaRank

Gold is back on the bull run and as forecasted $XAU will test $3500, a clean break sets up a move toward $3800. Our target is well above $4000. India/Pakistan at it now, add to Israel/Iran, Ukraine/Russian and the writing is on the wall. $VOO & $QQQ to take a near term hit. https://t.co/Dkr2PNXCP8

- CleaRank (@CleaRank) May 6, 2025

Our team posted again X on June 12, 2025, advising of an historic bullish gold run with a target of $4200.

We have warned multiple times that Gold’s next bullish pump is going to be historic. $XAU, $GLD will targeting new highs with @Jacob_bakshi forecasting $4200. See our full analysis here 👇https://t.co/pf7J4MYGRK https://t.co/Evmlg6GJVf

- CleaRank (@CleaRank) June 12, 2025

We posted again on the @CleaRank X account on August 14th 2025, when gold was trading at $3,330, just before the rally that followed.

Another Revised Bullish Forecast by Jacob Bakshi

If you thought, $4200 or $4400 sounds overly bullish, it’s time to review how you see the world’s oldest store of value. In September 2025, Jacob revised his bullish gold spot forecast even further for Q4 2025, with a lower limit target of $4,600 per ounce. That forecast failed: gold peaked at $4,549.71 on December 26, 2025, below the $4,600 he called the floor, and ended the year above $4,300. 

As Jacob explained:

“Gold hitting consistent all-time record highs is exactly as we expected with the Fed about to cut rates into rising inflation.$4,600 now seems like the lower limit for Q4. Central banks are buying aggressively, new mine supply has plateaued, and investor demand for hard assets keeps climbing. Those forces together create a durable floor under gold prices and set the stage for further upside.”

Jacob Bakshi, Senior Market Strategist, CleaRank

Economic Influences on Gold in 2025

The price is determined by four main economic levers: inflation, rates, the dollar, and geopolitics. They’re the fire in the belly of this rampant rally.

Inflation and Interest Rates: Walking the Tightrope

With inflation close to 3%, it’s more than enough to keep investors jittery. Now layer in the Fed, which is expected to start aggressive rate cuts with at least a 25-basis-point cut in September. That certainty is now close to 100%, with the Non-Farm Payrolls data coming in significantly lower than expected at 22K instead of the forecasted 77K. The cooling jobs data indicates that the Fed cannot act fast enough and if aggressive cuts are perceived as panic, the market could stampede towards gold. Also the lower yields will mean bonds lose their attractiveness and suddenly gold looks like a far better option.

But inflation is only one factor for gold, what really matters is the real yields which are the gap between rates and inflation. The risk is if Powell maintains rates at around 3.75% while inflation slides toward 2% and the labor market doesn’t collapse, then that gap widens and gold loses a lot of its appeal. 

Markets don’t exactly trust the Fed here either as  after years of blown calls on “transitory” inflation, confidence is paper-thin. If they move too slow, then gold should stall around the mid-$3,300s. If they overreact and slash into recession fears? That’s when we get a melt-up and the ceiling jumps well above the $4K levels.

Divergence Once More

Gold has had an explosive run in 2025, but the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell about 10% between the start of 2025 and mid-September and finished the year down about 9.4%, with a few key factors driving the divergence:

• Competing for Safe-haven status: The dollar and gold are both seen as crisis hedges, but tensions and uncertainty this year have propelled demand for gold even when the dollar stayed relatively strong.
• Inflation and Fed policy bets: Markets are constantly speculating and have priced in rate cuts in September and beyond, making gold more attractive, while simultaneously weakening the USD safe-haven attractiveness.
• Central bank buying & de-dollarization: Nations like China and India continue aggressive gold accumulation as a hedge, reducing reliance on dollar denominated assets

Global Growth: Gold’s Bipolar Catalyst

Gold thrives in two extremes:

• Doomsday Scenarios: Recessions, stock market crashes, or a China growth meltdown will send investors swarming towards gold’s safety.
• Growth with Baggage: Gold demand can still be high during expansionary periods if it’s accompanied by growth side effects such as inflation, debt bubbles, or political instability.

We’re watching China closely because if its property crisis deepens or consumer spending flatlines, Chinese households (the world’s hungriest gold buyers) could gobble up even more metal. On the other hand, cash could be lured into the stock market instead if there is a surprise tech boom or manufacturing rebound.

Geopolitics: A Tinderbox World

Unfortunately we live in a harsh reality, the world’s a tinderbox and things can go south very fast. The Ukraine war grinds on, Taiwan tensions simmer, and the Middle East remains a powder keg. Now add to the mix the aggressive Trump administration prioritizing trade wars , and you’ve got the perfect conditions for the volatility storm.

When headlines scream disaster or pending wars, gold does what it does best and that is preserve wealth while the stock market and cryptocurrencies crumble.

Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns and Price Trends

After spending endless hours going through over 200 technical indicators, we believe that from a technical standpoint it’s conclusive that gold’s Q4 2025 outlook looks mostly bullish. After breaking at least 28 all-time highs since the beginning of 2025, the momentum remains strong.  This notion is further boosted by short term indicators such as the RSI positive which suggest that despite potential pullbacks the rally still has plenty of momentum left in the tank

When analyzing key price levels gold is currently facing significant resistance around the $3,700 mark. This is a psychological barrier similar to the $2,700 level we observed in 2024. If we see a decisive breakout above $3,700 then our next target will be $4,200  and then a push beyond $4,600 before years end. Gold did break $3,700 and passed $4,200, but it topped out at $4,549.71 in December 2025 and did not get beyond $4,600. On the support side, buyers have consistently stepped in around $3,400. If that level were to break, the next support could be seen around $3,200 or unexpectedly back below $3,000. The upward-sloping 50-day moving average, currently in the mid-$3,300s, provides additional short-term support.

Our analysis also uncovered that gold’s multi-year chart is forming a “cup and handle” pattern. This is a bullish formation that suggests once a breakout is achieved after a long period of stagnation that there should be a continued rally over the coming years. We expect there to be more brief pullbacks but they will be more like a pause than a signal of a major trend reversal. 

The overall technical picture remains positive, and if gold manages to break steadily above $3,700, we expect to see it reaching several more new record levels and moving deep above the $4K levels. On the other hand, a consolidation between $3,500 and $3,300, will most probably serve as a solid foundation for future gains. Despite some expected volatility, all signs pointed to gold continuing on a sharp upward trajectory in Q4 of 2025, and it did: gold rose about 65% in 2025, its biggest annual gain since 1979.

Gold’s 2025 Supply and Demand

The Gold price isn’t moved by technical charts or Fed announcements alone-it’s dependent on real world supply and demand, and here’s what our fundamental analysis yielded:

Supply: Stuck in Neutral

Mining Stagnation: Global gold production is holding steady at roughly 3,500 tonnes per year, with Q2 output around 909 tonnes. New mega-mines are rare, and older ones are digging up lower-grade ore. Even with prices soaring, miners can’t magically ramp up output of gold that doesn’t exist or that is too difficult to mine.

Recycling Bump: High prices pushed recycling up around 10% in the first half of 2025, as households cashed in old jewelry. But obviously it’s limited-you can only recycle what’s already above ground.

Bottom line: supply is capped, but when demand spikes, prices spike.

Demand: Central Banks and Investors Rule

The 2025 Equation

Supply: Flat, with miners stuck around 3,500 t annually.
Demand: Central banks + investors are still outweighing the jewelry slump.
X-Factor: China’s decision to let insurers buy gold, potentially adding another $27 billion of demand, which is a game-changer.

Our Pro Tip: Markets hate shortages. With supply capped, central banks hoarding, and investors buying every dip, the floor under gold looks solid. Prices may swing, but the fundamental case for holding gold is only getting louder.

Gold Price FAQs

What has driven gold to record highs early in 2025?

A mix of inflationary concerns, speculation of fed rate cuts, and the on-going wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, have all contributed to increased demand for gold.

What is the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold?

When the dollar rises, gold drops, and vice-versa. However, since they are both considered a relative safe haven they may move in tandem in certain market conditions. You can read more about the current divergence between gold and the DXY here.

How do geopolitical events impact the gold price?

In times of global uncertainty or wars, the gold price will rally as it is historically considered to be a safe haven. Global tensions are currently at a simmering point, which is another key driver of the current bullish gold run.

What are the forecasts for gold for the remainder of 2025?

In 2025, most major financial institutions were bullish on gold. Goldman Sachs forecast $3,700 for year-end 2025 ($3,880 in a recession scenario) and J.P. Morgan expected gold to average $3,675 in Q4 2025. Jacob Bakshi, a senior derivatives and broker strategy specialist at CleaRank, set a lower limit target of $4,600 per ounce for Q4 2025. Gold beat the bank targets but fell short of Jacob’s floor, peaking at $4,549.71 on December 26, 2025. You can read more about Jacob Bakshi’s gold prediction here.

Should investors consider adding gold to their portfolios in 2025?

Most experts would agree that you should add approximately 5 to 10% of your portfolio in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and market volatility. You can use the CleaRank investment portfolio generator to help you decide how much weight gold should currently have in your portfolio. If you’re not sure how to invest in gold, you can also check out our guide on how to invest in gold.

Disclosure:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only. All prices, data, and forecasts reflect market conditions at the time of writing and the latest fact-check (as of the date specified above). Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.