{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/vale-vale/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/vale-vale/data.json",
 "title": "Vale (VALE) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "VALE stock forecast 2026: is VALE a buy right now? A Brazilian other industrial metals & mining stock on the NYSE. A dividend payer.",
 "headline": "Vale S.A. (VALE)",
 "published": "2026-11-09T19:00:44+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-11-09T19:00:45.29+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-11-11T13:24:38.790Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by Michelle Sofia, Market Analyst; prices delayed by up to a minute.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "VALE",
  "name": "Vale S.A.",
  "type": "American Depositary Receipt",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Basic Materials",
  "industry": "Other Industrial Metals & Mining",
  "country": "Brazil",
  "website": "https://vale.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 11.58,
  "previousClose": 11.97,
  "change": -0.39,
  "changePercent": -3.26,
  "open": 11.66,
  "high": 11.68,
  "low": 11.4425,
  "volume": 38785094,
  "averageVolume": 37506039,
  "marketCap": 49281733166,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 17.94,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 10.96,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-11-10T23:57:00.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 68.12,
  "eps": 0.17,
  "dividendYield": 0.0690846286701209,
  "beta": 0.73,
  "priceToSales": 1.2573,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 39196886974,
  "grossMargin": 0.30520099066488854,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.00262
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 38.49,
  "macd": -0.5435,
  "sma50": 13.37,
  "sma200": 15.12,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Sell",
  "score": 26,
  "consensus": "Sell",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 15,
  "analystCount": 25,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-10T23:57:00.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 11.58,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 2.15,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 7.27,
    "base": 12.19,
    "upside90th": 20.46
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 6.17,
    "base": 12.84,
    "upside90th": 26.69
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 5.51,
    "base": 13.52,
    "upside90th": 33.13
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 5.05,
    "base": 14.23,
    "upside90th": 40.07
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "atAGlance": {
  "asOf": "November 10, 2026",
  "rating": "Sell",
  "score": 26,
  "evidence": [
   {
    "label": "Trend",
    "text": "Down: the price is below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($13.37 and $15.12)."
   },
   {
    "label": "Valuation",
    "text": "P/E of 68.1 against 30.2 for the Basic Materials sector: a premium to peers (+126%)."
   }
  ]
 },
 "figures": {
  "asOf": "November 10, 2026",
  "earningsReaction": null,
  "insiders": null,
  "drawdown": {
   "years": 10,
   "worstFallPercent": -57.2,
   "peak": "October 2018",
   "trough": "March 2020",
   "recoveredBy": "December 2020",
   "recoveryMonths": 9,
   "belowThatPeakNowPercent": null,
   "fromHighNowPercent": -33.21,
   "oneYearHoldsPositivePercent": 57,
   "dividendsReinvested": true
  },
  "seasonality": {
   "years": 10,
   "bestMonth": {
    "month": "Dec",
    "averagePercent": 7.85,
    "upYearsPercent": 89
   },
   "worstMonth": {
    "month": "Mar",
    "averagePercent": -4.09,
    "upYearsPercent": 40
   }
  },
  "correlations": null,
  "analystTargets": {
   "analysts": 25,
   "low": 9.5,
   "median": 15,
   "high": 22,
   "mean": 15.31,
   "buy": 12,
   "hold": 12,
   "sell": 1
  },
  "dividend": {
   "yieldPercent": 6.91,
   "annualPerShare": 0.8
  },
  "simulation": {
   "year": 2030,
   "base": 14.23,
   "percentile10": 5.05,
   "percentile90": 40.07,
   "note": "Monte Carlo simulation outcomes, not price targets"
  }
 },
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "ch-overview",
   "title": "VALE stock today, November 11, 2026: price, news and analyst targets",
   "text": [
    "As of November 10, 2026, Vale S.A. (VALE) trades at $11.58. Wall Street's median 12-month price target is $15.00 across 25 analysts, 29.5% above the price. CleaRank rates it Sell with a score of 26/100.",
    "Vale's stock is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and has fallen well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($13.37 and $15.12), while analysts remain mostly on the sidelines. The price sits at $11.58, just above its 52-week low of $10.96, and the trailing P/E of 68.12 is far above the sector median of 30.2. Recent rating actions have been steady rather than decisive: Wells Fargo, UBS and Barclays all kept neutral-style ratings in early November, and Freedom Broker kept its Buy. The question for holders is whether the business can rebuild earnings from a thin current profit base.",
    "The stock is down 32.00% over six months and 19.13% over three months, and it sits 23.43% below its 200-day average. The 50-day average is below the 200-day average by 11.61%, a configuration that technical traders usually read as a longer downtrend. Momentum confirms the weakness: the 14-day RSI is 38.5, which is in the bearish zone but not oversold, and the MACD line is negative. The stock did bounce 5.46% over the past week, but that move has not yet pulled the price back above the 20-day EMA.",
    "The trailing P/E of 68.12 is a premium to the sector median of 30.2, but that figure rests on a reported profit that is very thin. Reported earnings per share over the last 12 months were $0.17, and the net profit margin is 1.01%, while the operating margin is 19.31%. The gap between operating and net margins is wide, and return on equity is only 0.26% against a sector median of 17.9%. On sales the stock looks cheaper than peers, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.26 against a sector median of 4.2.",
    "Of 25 analysts with a current rating, 12 rate the stock buy or strong buy, 12 rate it hold, and one rates it sell or strong sell. Twelve months ago the buy count was 10 of 25, so the split has moved toward buy slightly. Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating on November 3, 2026, UBS kept its Neutral rating on November 2 and again on October 21, Barclays kept its Equal-Weight rating on November 2, and Freedom Broker kept its Buy rating on November 2. Scotiabank was the one upgrade, moving to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform on October 19, 2026. The median 12-month analyst target is $15.00, which sits 29.5% above the price of $11.58. The analysts' average EPS estimate for next fiscal year (2027) is $1.81, which is expected to grow 9.2% from this year's estimate.",
    "The trailing dividend yield is 6.91%, based on an annual dividend of $0.80 per share. Because the dividend is large relative to the reported $0.17 of earnings per share over the last year, its sustainability depends on cash flow and on the earnings rebuilding that analysts forecast. Debt-to-equity is 0.55, which gives the balance sheet a moderate footing.",
    "CleaRank score 26/100 (Sell). 8 of 18 checks pass: trend 0 of 4, momentum 1 of 3, valuation and quality 3 of 4, analysts 2 of 3, track record 2 of 4.",
    "A. , a Brazil-based multinational mining company focused on the production and export of iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, copper, manganese, ferroalloys, and other base metals. The company also operates logistics infrastructure that supports its mining activities, including railways, ports, maritime terminals, and distribution systems. Vale serves industrial customers across the steel, metals, energy transition materials, and broader materials sectors, with operations spanning multiple regions worldwide."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-news",
   "title": "VALE stock news",
   "text": [
    "October 19, 2026·Scotiabank",
    "Scotiabank upgraded the stock to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform on October 19, 2026. An upgrade from a major bank is the kind of signal that can attract buyers back after a long decline.",
    "November 3, 2026·Wells Fargo",
    "Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating on November 3, 2026. The reaffirmation shows a cautious middle view at a time when the stock is near its lows.",
    "November 2, 2026·Freedom Broker",
    "Freedom Broker kept its Buy rating on November 2, 2026. A firm that stays positive while the stock trades near its 52-week low keeps the bullish case alive.",
    "UBS kept its Neutral rating on November 2, 2026, and had kept the same rating on October 21, 2026. Two reaffirmations in a short span show a settled view that the stock is not yet a clear buy.",
    "November 2, 2026·Barclays",
    "Barclays kept its Equal-Weight rating on November 2, 2026. Like the other holds, it signals that the near-term path depends on earnings delivery rather than on a rating change."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Scotiabank lifts its rating October 19, 2026·Scotiabank Scotiabank upgraded the stock to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform on October 19, 2026. An upgrade from a major bank is the kind of signal that can attract buyers back after a long decline.",
     "Wells Fargo holds Equal-Weight November 3, 2026·Wells Fargo Wells Fargo kept its Equal-Weight rating on November 3, 2026. The reaffirmation shows a cautious middle view at a time when the stock is near its lows.",
     "Freedom Broker keeps Buy November 2, 2026·Freedom Broker Freedom Broker kept its Buy rating on November 2, 2026. A firm that stays positive while the stock trades near its 52-week low keeps the bullish case alive.",
     "UBS keeps Neutral November 2, 2026·UBS UBS kept its Neutral rating on November 2, 2026, and had kept the same rating on October 21, 2026. Two reaffirmations in a short span show a settled view that the stock is not yet a clear buy.",
     "Barclays keeps Equal-Weight November 2, 2026·Barclays Barclays kept its Equal-Weight rating on November 2, 2026. Like the other holds, it signals that the near-term path depends on earnings delivery rather than on a rating change."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-street",
   "title": "VALE price target 2026",
   "text": [
    "The base case is that the stock keeps trading in a weak, range-bound pattern near its 52-week low until earnings stop shrinking. Analysts expect EPS to fall 9.1% this fiscal year to $1.66 and then rise 9.2% to $1.81 in 2027, and revenue is expected to grow 6.8% this year, so the recovery depends on that second-half and next-year growth actually arriving. Conditions that would improve the picture are a price that reclaims the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA, and revenue growth that turns positive after the 3.90% decline in the latest quarter. Conditions that would worsen it are a break below the $10.96 low, further weakness in the iron ore and base-metals prices the business depends on, or a shift in analyst ratings toward sell. The median analyst target of $15.00 sits well above the price, but the target range runs from $9.50 to $22.00, so the spread of views is wide. These are scenarios, not forecasts."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent analyst rating actions on VALE",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Firm",
      "Action",
      "Rating"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Nov 3, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Wells Fargo",
        "Maintains",
        "Equal-Weight"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Freedom Broker",
        "Maintains",
        "Buy"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "UBS",
        "Maintains",
        "Neutral"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Barclays",
        "Maintains",
        "Equal-Weight"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 21, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "UBS",
        "Maintains",
        "Neutral"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 19, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Scotiabank",
        "Upgrade",
        "Sector Outperform"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-levels",
   "title": "VALE support and resistance levels",
   "text": [
    "Support sits at the 52-week low of $10.96, the nearest level below the price and the point where the stock would be testing its lowest trading of the past year. Above the price, the nearest resistance is the 20-day EMA at $12.04, which a rebound would meet first. The 50-day SMA at $13.37 is the next hurdle and marks where the stock has recently been trading. The 200-day SMA at $15.12 is the longer-term trend line, and the 52-week high of $17.94 is the top of the range."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "VALE support and resistance levels",
     "columns": [
      "Level",
      "What it is",
      "Price",
      "From the price"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Resistance 4",
       "cells": [
        "52-week high",
        "$17.94",
        "+54.9%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Resistance 3",
       "cells": [
        "200-day moving average",
        "$15.12",
        "+30.6%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Resistance 2",
       "cells": [
        "50-day moving average",
        "$13.37",
        "+15.4%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Resistance 1",
       "cells": [
        "20-day exponential average",
        "$12.04",
        "+4.0%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Price",
       "cells": [
        "November 10, 2026",
        "$11.58",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 1",
       "cells": [
        "52-week low",
        "$10.96",
        "-5.4%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "RSI Bearish",
     "SMA cross Bearish",
     "Price vs SMA Bearish",
     "MACD Bearish"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-price",
   "title": "VALE stock price and trading"
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-fundamentals",
   "title": "VALE fundamentals and valuation",
   "text": [
    "Price to earnings vs sector: VALE trades at a significant premium to sector peers (+126% against the sector median P/E). Investors are paying more for each dollar of earnings than for the typical stock in the sector.",
    "Return vs XLB: Since May 30, 2025, VALE has gained 26.8% against a gain of 22.4% for XLB.",
    "Revenue growth: Revenue grew 0.9% in FY2025 to $38.4B, from $38.1B a year earlier.",
    "Profit margin: The net margin was 5.2% in FY2025, down from 15.7% the year before.",
    "Profitable: VALE earned $2.0B in FY2025."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-history",
   "title": "VALE price history and drawdowns",
   "text": [
    "Against the market: VALE trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $26,627 against $40,115.",
    "A $10,000 investment in VALE in December 2016 would be worth about $26,627 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $40,115 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested)."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-scenarios",
   "title": "VALE stock price prediction 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $14.23 for VALE by 2030 in the base case, from $11.58 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $5.05. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VALE's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "VALE simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "10th percentile",
      "Base case",
      "90th percentile",
      "range base today"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$7.27",
        "$12.19",
        "$20.46",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$6.17",
        "$12.84",
        "$26.69",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$5.51",
        "$13.52",
        "$33.13",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$5.05",
        "$14.23",
        "$40.07",
        ""
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-faq",
   "title": "VALE stock forecast: questions people ask",
   "text": [
    "How these figures are computed, and where the data comes from: CleaRank methodology."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-related",
   "title": "Compare VALE with similar assets",
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/cx-stock-analysis/"
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     "text": "HL Hecla Mining Company NYSE $14.29 -7.27%",
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     "text": "AA Alcoa Corporation NYSE $39.98 -4.40%",
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 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the VALE stock forecast?",
   "answer": "The median 12-month analyst price target is $15.00, which is 29.5% above the current price, with targets ranging from $9.50 to $22.00 across 25 analysts. The nearest level below the price is the 52-week low at $10.96, and the nearest level above is the 20-day EMA at $12.04. Forecasts are analyst estimates and are not guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the VALE price target?",
   "answer": "The median 12-month analyst target is $15.00, with the lowest target at $9.50 and the highest at $22.00. The consensus rating is Hold, with 12 of 25 analysts rating the stock buy or strong buy and 12 rating it hold. The price of $11.58 sits below the median target."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is VALE a buy or sell today?",
   "answer": "Analysts split 12 buy, 12 hold and one sell out of 25, so the consensus rating is Hold. CleaRank rates the stock Sell with a score of 26 out of 100. The stock is below its 50-day SMA by 13.37% and below its 200-day SMA by 23.43%, and the 14-day RSI of 38.5 is in the bearish zone."
  },
  {
   "question": "Why has the VALE stock fallen this year?",
   "answer": "The stock is down 32.00% over six months and 19.13% over three months. The price history is the clearest evidence of the decline, since no specific cause is attributed to it in the reporting available here."
  },
  {
   "question": "How much does VALE pay in dividends?",
   "answer": "The annual dividend is $0.80 per share, giving a trailing dividend yield of 6.91%. Reported earnings per share over the last 12 months were $0.17, so the payout is large relative to that profit. Investors should check the company's cash flow before relying on the yield."
  },
  {
   "question": "How risky is the VALE stock?",
   "answer": "The typical daily move, measured as the 30-day standard deviation of daily returns, is 2.15%. The beta against the S&P 500 is 0.73, meaning the stock has moved less than the broad market on average. Its price has still fallen 35.45% below the 52-week high."
  },
  {
   "question": "What does the VALE valuation look like against peers?",
   "answer": "The trailing P/E of 68.12 is a premium to the sector median P/E of 30.2, which is 125.6% above it. The gap reflects the very thin reported profit behind the P/E."
  }
 ],
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    "ticker": "HL",
    "text": "Hecla Mining Company",
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