{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/united-parcel-service-ups/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/united-parcel-service-ups/data.json",
 "title": "United Parcel Service, Inc (UPS) Stock Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stock: Industrials, Integrated Freight & Logistics. $84.4B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)",
 "published": "2026-07-27T09:24:12+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-10T12:13:32.934+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:43:38.576Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "UPS",
  "name": "United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B Common Stock",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Industrials",
  "industry": "Integrated Freight & Logistics",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.ups.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 99.97,
  "previousClose": 99.22,
  "change": 0.75,
  "changePercent": 0.76,
  "open": 99,
  "high": 100.5099,
  "low": 98.81,
  "volume": 2607071,
  "averageVolume": 3465347,
  "marketCap": 84414548566,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 122.41,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 82,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-10T12:13:30.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 18.6855,
  "eps": 5.31,
  "dividendYield": 0.06611570166591772,
  "beta": 1.038,
  "priceToSales": 0.9386695,
  "priceToBook": 5.604067,
  "revenueTtm": 89929998336,
  "grossMargin": 0.13006919505999825,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.29602
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 35.62,
  "macd": -1.47,
  "sma50": 107.4,
  "sma200": 104.96,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 58,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 117.5,
  "analystTarget": 117.5,
  "analystCount": 29,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T12:13:30.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 99.97,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.43,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 98.97,
  "aggressiveEntry": 99.97,
  "stopLoss": 96,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   101.94,
   103.92,
   106.89
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 71.62,
    "base": 102.62,
    "upside90th": 147.03
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 63.34,
    "base": 105.33,
    "upside90th": 175.16
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 57.99,
    "base": 108.12,
    "upside90th": 201.57
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 54.06,
    "base": 110.98,
    "upside90th": 227.84
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 50.97,
    "base": 113.91,
    "upside90th": 254.59
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 48.45,
    "base": 116.93,
    "upside90th": 282.17
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 46.35,
    "base": 120.02,
    "upside90th": 310.82
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 44.55,
    "base": 123.2,
    "upside90th": 340.71
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 42.99,
    "base": 126.46,
    "upside90th": 371.99
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 41.62,
    "base": 129.8,
    "upside90th": 404.78
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "UPS Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$99.00",
    "Day Range": "$98.81 to $100.51",
    "Prev Close": "$99.22",
    "Volume": "2.61M",
    "52-Week Range": "$82.00 to $122.41",
    "Market Cap": "$84.41B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-27%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "UPS Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, UPS beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "UPS Analysis",
   "text": [
    "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($107.40 and $104.96), indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.62, classified as bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further downside or a period of consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also negative, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Volume has been slightly below average recently, which could indicate a lack of conviction from either buyers or sellers. The overall technical picture points to a stock under pressure, with a need for a significant catalyst to reverse the current bearish momentum.",
    "Insiders have sold approximately $2.7 million worth of stock against $1.5 million in purchases recently, indicating a net selling trend that could pressure prices.",
    "UPS is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($107.40 and $104.96), with a bearish RSI status, suggesting potential for further price declines.",
    "The most recent earnings report showed an EPS beat of 6.02%, following a significant 37.5% beat in the prior quarter, indicating improving operational performance.",
    "The company offers a substantial dividend yield of 6.56%, which can attract income-focused investors and provide a floor for the stock price.",
    "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is expected to see modest revenue growth of around 3.00% for the current year, with similar projections for the next year. The base case scenario for UPS stock, based on long-range projections, suggests a price of $110.15 by 2030. This outlook is supported by its attractive dividend yield of 6.56% and a P/E ratio below the sector average, positioning it as a potential value and income act. However, the trajectory could be altered by several factors. Positive catalysts such as stronger-than-anticipated demand, successful cost-containment initiatives, or a reversal in insider selling trends could drive the stock higher, potentially towards the higher end of analyst targets. Conversely, persistent bearish technical momentum, increased competition, or a slowdown in global trade could lead to downside risk, pushing the stock towards its lower projection range."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider the moderate insider selling trend as a signal of caution, despite the stock's dividend appeal.",
     "Monitor the 50-day and 200-day SMAs for signs of a technical trend reversal; currently, the stock is trading below both.",
     "Given the modest revenue growth projections, focus on the company's ability to manage costs and maintain its dividend payout."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling Continues",
     "text": "Insiders have sold approximately $2.7 million worth of stock against $1.5 million in purchases recently, indicating a net selling trend that could pressure prices.",
     "source": "Insider Trading Data"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Momentum",
     "text": "UPS is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($107.40 and $104.96), with a bearish RSI status, suggesting potential for further price declines.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Earnings Surprise",
     "text": "The most recent earnings report showed an EPS beat of 6.02%, following a significant 37.5% beat in the prior quarter, indicating improving operational performance.",
     "source": "Earnings Report"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Attractive Dividend Yield",
     "text": "The company offers a substantial dividend yield of 6.56%, which can attract income-focused investors and provide a floor for the stock price.",
     "source": "Dividend Data"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 18.69, which is below the sector average P/E of 25.5, suggesting a potential valuation discount relative to its peers. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the trailing twelve months was $5.31. While the P/E ratio appears attractive, the revenue growth has been modest, with current year estimates at 3.00% year-over-year. The company's balance sheet strength is not detailed, but its significant market capitalization of over $84 billion suggests a substantial enterprise. The current valuation may offer a value act for income-focused investors given the dividend yield, but growth prospects appear moderate.",
    "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) most recently reported an EPS of $1.76 on July 28, 2026, beating the analyst estimate of $1.66 by 6.02%. This followed a significant beat in the prior quarter where EPS was -$0.05 against an estimate of -$0.08, a 37.5% surprise. However, prior to that, the company missed estimates in the January 2026 quarter. The stock experienced a slight decline of 0.92% following the most recent earnings report.",
    "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with total sales exceeding purchases by approximately $1.2 million in the recent reporting period. The stock's technical indicators are bearish, trading below key moving averages and showing weak momentum, which could lead to further price declines. Additionally, the company's revenue growth is projected to be modest at 3.00% for the current year, potentially limiting upside potential."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "84.41B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "18.69"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "5.31"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "6.61%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "122.41"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "82.00"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Bearish SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($107.40) above the 200-day SMA ($104.96), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bearish",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "35.62"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.47"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "107.40"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "104.96"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.38",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.30",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "-0.04",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.06"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "UPS Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (35.6) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$101.94",
    "TARGET 2": "$103.92",
    "TARGET 3": "$106.89",
    "STOP LOSS": "$96.00"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "-2.32%",
    "Average Feb return": "-1.26%",
    "Average Mar return": "-0.67%",
    "Average Apr return": "+0.50%",
    "Average May return": "-0.76%",
    "Average Jun return": "+2.18%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.55%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.25%",
    "Average Sep return": "-2.41%",
    "Average Oct return": "+0.63%",
    "Average Nov return": "+4.54%",
    "Average Dec return": "-1.71%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.43%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in UPS in September 2016 would be worth about $9,140 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in UPS today could grow to about $12,984 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $40,490 and a bear case around $4,164. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "UPS Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $111 for UPS by 2030 in the base case, from $99.97 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $54.06. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on UPS's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using UPS's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "UPS simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$71.62",
        "$103",
        "$147"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$63.34",
        "$105",
        "$175"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$57.99",
        "$108",
        "$202"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$54.06",
        "$111",
        "$228"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$50.97",
        "$114",
        "$255"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$48.45",
        "$117",
        "$282"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$46.35",
        "$120",
        "$311"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$44.55",
        "$123",
        "$341"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$42.99",
        "$126",
        "$372"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$41.62",
        "$130",
        "$405"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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    {
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    },
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/northrop-grumman-noc/"
    },
    {
     "text": "SNA Snap-on Incorporated NYSE $377.66 +0.7550%",
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    {
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    {
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    },
    {
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    {
     "text": "PWR Quanta Services, Inc. NYSE $622.49 -0.7161%",
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    },
    {
     "text": "LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. NASDAQ $14.62 -2.14%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/intuitive-machines-lunr/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "Copper Futures (HG1) vs Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/copper-vs-gold/"
    },
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/uber-vs-lyft/"
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/amat-vs-lrcx/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "UPS Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$1.5M",
    "Sold": "$2.7M",
    "Insiders": "4",
    "Avg Transaction": "$1.0M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in UPS",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jan 28, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR. Officer",
        "Sell",
        "25.0K",
        "$2.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 25, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR. Officer",
        "Sell",
        "7.3K",
        "$1.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 22, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "SHI CHRISTIANA SMITH Director",
        "Buy",
        "500",
        "$44.1K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 1, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "TOME CAROL B. Chief Executive Officer",
        "Buy",
        "11.7K",
        "$1.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 31, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "JOHNSON WILLIAM R Director",
        "Buy",
        "5.0K",
        "$432.5K"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=United+Parcel+Service%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s (UPS) stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) has a projected base case price of $110.15 by 2030. The downside projection is $53.65, while the upside projection reaches $226.13. These figures represent statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is UPS stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently rated as 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 58 out of 100. While the median analyst price target suggests an 18.4% upside, the stock is trading below key moving averages with bearish momentum, and insiders have been net sellers."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the dividend yield for UPS stock?",
   "answer": "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) offers a dividend yield of approximately 6.56%, providing a significant income stream for investors."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does UPS's valuation compare to its sector peers?",
   "answer": "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) has a P/E ratio of approximately 18.69, which is lower than the sector average P/E of 25.5, indicating it may be trading at a discount relative to its industry peers."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the recent earnings trends for UPS?",
   "answer": "United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) recently reported a 6.02% EPS beat in its latest quarter, following a substantial 37.5% beat in the previous quarter. However, prior quarters showed mixed performance, including an EPS miss."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key risks facing UPS?",
   "answer": "Key risks for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) include moderate insider selling, bearish technical momentum indicated by its trading position below key moving averages, and modest projected revenue growth of 3.00% for the current year."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the consensus rating for UPS stock among Wall Street analysts?",
   "answer": "The consensus rating for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stock among 29 Wall Street analysts is 'Hold', with a median price target of $117.50."
  }
 ],
 "related": {
  "peopleAlsoWatch": [
   {
    "ticker": "RSG",
    "name": "Republic Services, Inc. NYSE",
    "price": "$222.92",
    "change": "+0.8323%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/rsg-stock-analysis/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "NOC",
    "name": "Northrop Grumman Corporation NYSE",
    "price": "$522.25",
    "change": "+0.6359%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/northrop-grumman-noc/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "SNA",
    "name": "Snap-on Incorporated NYSE",
    "price": "$377.66",
    "change": "+0.7550%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/snap-on-sna/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "GD",
    "name": "General Dynamics Corp. NYSE",
    "price": "$355.35",
    "change": "+0.3105%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/general-dynamics-gd/"
   },
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    "ticker": "BWXT",
    "name": "BWX Technologies, Inc. NYSE",
    "price": "$150.13",
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