{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/ulta-beauty-ulta/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/ulta-beauty-ulta/data.json",
 "title": "Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock: Consumer Cyclical, Specialty Retail. $22.9B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)",
 "published": "2026-06-03T09:12:18+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T19:33:04.626+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T21:02:18.137Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ULTA",
  "name": "Ulta Beauty, Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Specialty Retail",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.ulta.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 546.65,
  "previousClose": 535.63,
  "change": 11.02,
  "changePercent": 2.06,
  "open": 542.905,
  "high": 546.65,
  "low": 531.77,
  "volume": 11620,
  "averageVolume": 707492,
  "marketCap": 22902184191,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 714.96997,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 443.60001,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T19:33:02.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 19.498726,
  "eps": 27.47,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 0.854,
  "priceToSales": 1.7677553,
  "priceToBook": 8.43844,
  "revenueTtm": 12955516928,
  "grossMargin": 0.3910008841523272,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.46117002
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 59.22,
  "macd": 9.06,
  "sma50": 512.07,
  "sma200": 557.08,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 70,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 635,
  "analystTarget": 635,
  "analystCount": 28,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T19:33:02.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 546.65,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 2.48,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 535.72,
  "aggressiveEntry": 546.65,
  "stopLoss": 513.22,
  "stopLossPercent": 4.2,
  "targets": [
   562.5,
   589.29,
   616.07
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 357.15,
    "base": 588.96,
    "upside90th": 971.24
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 312.78,
    "base": 634.55,
    "upside90th": 1287.33
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 287.45,
    "base": 683.66,
    "upside90th": 1625.98
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 270.85,
    "base": 736.58,
    "upside90th": 2003.09
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 259.32,
    "base": 793.59,
    "upside90th": 2428.63
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 251.1,
    "base": 855.01,
    "upside90th": 2911.41
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 245.24,
    "base": 921.19,
    "upside90th": 3460.32
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 241.14,
    "base": 992.49,
    "upside90th": 4084.88
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 238.44,
    "base": 1069.31,
    "upside90th": 4795.44
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 236.87,
    "base": 1152.08,
    "upside90th": 5603.5
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ULTA Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$542.91",
    "Day Range": "$531.77 to $546.65",
    "Prev Close": "$535.63",
    "Volume": "11.6K",
    "52-Week Range": "$443.60 to $714.97",
    "Market Cap": "$22.90B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-0.006533% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ULTA Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ULTA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ULTA Analysis",
   "text": [
    "At $546.65, Ulta Beauty, Inc. exhibits neutral momentum, as indicated by an RSI of 59.22. The stock is trading above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $512.07 and its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $537.66, suggesting some underlying support. However, it remains below its 200-day SMA of $557.08, which is currently acting as resistance. Volume has been significantly below average recently, with the latest volume at 1,162 compared to a 707,492 average, indicating a lack of strong conviction from traders. Key support levels are near the 50-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 200-day SMA and potentially higher psychological levels. The current technical setup suggests a neutral to cautiously optimistic near-term outlook, awaiting a decisive move above the 200-day SMA.",
    "Projected revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 5.00% for the next year provides a solid fundamental backdrop for potential stock appreciation.",
    "A significant majority of Wall Street analysts maintain 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings, with a median price target of $635.00, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.",
    "Recent insider transactions show net selling activity, with over $1 million in sales compared to approximately $500,000 in purchases, signaling potential caution among management.",
    "The stock is currently trading below its 200-day SMA of $557.08, which is acting as resistance, suggesting a need for further positive momentum to confirm a bullish technical trend.",
    "Ulta Beauty, Inc. is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates projecting a 7.00% increase year-over-year, reaching approximately $13.3 billion. The median analyst price target of $635.00 suggests a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of $546.65, indicating a base case scenario for continued appreciation over the next 6-12 months. Upside potential could be further enhanced by stronger-than-expected consumer spending in the beauty sector or successful expansion initiatives. Conversely, a significant slowdown in consumer discretionary spending, increased competition, or a shift in consumer preferences could pressure revenue and profitability, potentially leading to a downside scenario. The 'Moderate Sell Signal' from insider transactions warrants monitoring for any further negative developments."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider transactions closely, as recent selling activity has triggered a 'Moderate Sell Signal'.",
     "Consider the stock's position relative to its 200-day moving average; a sustained move above $557.08 would be a positive technical confirmation.",
     "Given the competitive retail landscape, focus on Ulta's ability to maintain market share and adapt to evolving consumer trends."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Revenue Growth Estimates",
     "text": "Projected revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 5.00% for the next year provides a solid fundamental backdrop for potential stock appreciation.",
     "source": "Wall Street Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Analyst Buy Consensus",
     "text": "A significant majority of Wall Street analysts maintain 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings, with a median price target of $635.00, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.",
     "source": "Wall Street Summary"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling Signal",
     "text": "Recent insider transactions show net selling activity, with over $1 million in sales compared to approximately $500,000 in purchases, signaling potential caution among management.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Trading Below 200-Day Moving Average",
     "text": "The stock is currently trading below its 200-day SMA of $557.08, which is acting as resistance, suggesting a need for further positive momentum to confirm a bullish technical trend.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.50, which appears reasonable given its projected revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year. This P/E is in line with the sector average of 19.5, suggesting fair valuation relative to its peers. The company's consistent revenue growth, with an 8.9% increase reported previously and projected 4.00% for the current quarter, indicates sustained demand for its products. The company's ability to consistently meet or exceed earnings estimates, with a few exceptions, points to operational efficiency. The current valuation does not appear excessively stretched, especially when considering the projected growth trajectory and the positive analyst sentiment.",
    "Ulta Beauty, Inc. most recently reported Q1 2026 earnings on August 27, 2026, with an EPS of $6.55, beating the estimate of $6.20 by 5.65%, though the stock saw a -4.18% price reaction. Prior to this, the company delivered a strong Q4 2026 EPS of $7.74, exceeding estimates by 12.34%, but also experienced a -4.78% stock decline. The company missed estimates in Q1 2026 and Q4 2025, but beat in Q3 2025 and Q2 2026, indicating a somewhat mixed but generally positive earnings performance trend.",
    "The primary risk for Ulta Beauty, Inc. stems from recent insider selling activity, which has resulted in a 'Moderate Sell Signal' with over $1 million in sales versus less than $500,000 in purchases. Additionally, the stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential near-term headwinds and a need for confirmation of a sustained upward trend. Competitive pressures within the specialty retail sector also present an ongoing challenge."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "22.90B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "19.50"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "27.47"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "714.97"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "443.60"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $512.07, 200-day: $557.08), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "59.22"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "9.06"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "512.07"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "557.08"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.36",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.31",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.19",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.05"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ULTA Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (59.2) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$562.50",
    "TARGET 2": "$589.29",
    "TARGET 3": "$616.07",
    "STOP LOSS": "$513.22"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.54%",
    "Average Feb return": "+1.04%",
    "Average Mar return": "-3.39%",
    "Average Apr return": "+4.70%",
    "Average May return": "+2.12%",
    "Average Jun return": "-2.18%",
    "Average Jul return": "-0.14%",
    "Average Aug return": "-0.97%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.17%",
    "Average Oct return": "-4.34%",
    "Average Nov return": "+9.16%",
    "Average Dec return": "+2.94%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "2.48%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ULTA in September 2016 would be worth about $22,098 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ULTA today could grow to about $21,075 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $102,506 and a bear case around $4,333. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ULTA Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $737 for ULTA by 2030 in the base case, from $547 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $271. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ULTA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ULTA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ULTA simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$357",
        "$589",
        "$971"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$313",
        "$635",
        "$1,287"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$287",
        "$684",
        "$1,626"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$271",
        "$737",
        "$2,003"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$259",
        "$794",
        "$2,429"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$251",
        "$855",
        "$2,911"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$245",
        "$921",
        "$3,460"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$241",
        "$992",
        "$4,085"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$238",
        "$1,069",
        "$4,795"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$237",
        "$1,152",
        "$5,604"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ULTA Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$499.5K",
    "Sold": "$1.0M",
    "Insiders": "17",
    "Avg Transaction": "$304.5K"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ULTA",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Mar 25, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "427.0K",
        "$130.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 29, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "402.7K",
        "$122.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 9, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "280.8K",
        "$90.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 20, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "242.4K",
        "$81.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 22, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "162.5K",
        "$54.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 7, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "155.1K",
        "$49.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 13, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "140.5K",
        "$46.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 19, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "DILLON MARY N Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "120.9K",
        "$40.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 30, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HEILBRONN CHARLES Director",
        "Sell",
        "120.9K",
        "$37.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 4, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "DILLON MARY N Director",
        "Sell",
        "81.7K",
        "$26.6M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Ulta+Beauty%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $635.00, suggesting a 16.2% upside from its current price of $546.65. While recent insider selling is a point of caution, the company's consistent revenue growth and analyst consensus support a bullish stance."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Ulta Beauty's stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $736.58 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $270.85, and the upside projection is $2,003.09. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Ulta Beauty, Inc.?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for Ulta Beauty include recent insider selling activity indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal', and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, which acts as resistance. Competitive pressures within the specialty retail sector also pose a continuous challenge."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has Ulta Beauty performed in recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "Ulta Beauty recently reported Q1 2026 EPS of $6.55, beating estimates by 5.65%, although the stock reacted negatively. The company has shown a mixed but generally positive earnings trend, with several recent quarters exceeding analyst expectations."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Ulta Beauty's valuation compared to its sector?",
   "answer": "Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a P/E ratio of 19.50, which is in line with the sector average of 19.5. This suggests that the stock is fairly valued relative to its industry peers, especially considering its projected revenue growth."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the analyst consensus for Ulta Beauty stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for Ulta Beauty, Inc. is 'Buy', with 28 analysts covering the stock. This includes 4 'Strong Buy' ratings, 15 'Buy' ratings, and 8 'Hold' ratings, contributing to a Wall Street score of 70 out of 100."
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   "answer": "Ulta Beauty's technical indicators show neutral momentum with an RSI at 59.2. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 20-day moving averages but below its 200-day moving average, which is currently acting as resistance. Low recent trading volume suggests a lack of strong conviction."
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      "text": "Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $635.00, suggesting a 16.2% upside from its current price of $546.65. While recent insider selling is a point of caution, the company's consistent revenue growth and analyst consensus support a bullish stance."
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      "text": "The primary risks for Ulta Beauty include recent insider selling activity indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal', and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, which acts as resistance. Competitive pressures within the specialty retail sector also pose a continuous challenge."
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      "text": "Ulta Beauty recently reported Q1 2026 EPS of $6.55, beating estimates by 5.65%, although the stock reacted negatively. The company has shown a mixed but generally positive earnings trend, with several recent quarters exceeding analyst expectations."
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      "text": "Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a P/E ratio of 19.50, which is in line with the sector average of 19.5. This suggests that the stock is fairly valued relative to its industry peers, especially considering its projected revenue growth."
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      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "The Wall Street consensus for Ulta Beauty, Inc. is 'Buy', with 28 analysts covering the stock. This includes 4 'Strong Buy' ratings, 15 'Buy' ratings, and 8 'Hold' ratings, contributing to a Wall Street score of 70 out of 100."
     }
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    {
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     "name": "What is the technical outlook for Ulta Beauty stock?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Ulta Beauty's technical indicators show neutral momentum with an RSI of 59.22. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 20-day moving averages but below its 200-day moving average, which is currently acting as resistance. Low recent trading volume suggests a lack of strong conviction."
     }
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}