{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/tm-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/tm-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored (TM) Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "Is Toyota Motor (TM) a Buy or Sell today? Get the latest AI trade setup, key support levels and ADR valuation analysis. Updated daily.",
 "headline": "Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored (TM)",
 "published": "2026-09-03T09:22:35+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T16:57:18.478+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:40:48.587Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "TM",
  "name": "Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored",
  "type": "American Depositary Receipt",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Auto Manufacturers",
  "country": "Japan",
  "website": "https://global.toyota"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 198.57,
  "previousClose": 192.48,
  "change": 6.09,
  "changePercent": 3.16,
  "open": 197.32,
  "high": 198.88,
  "low": 197.32,
  "volume": 6557,
  "averageVolume": 338856,
  "marketCap": 227931614287,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 248.89999,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 166.10001,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T16:57:17.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 8.4273205,
  "eps": 22.84,
  "dividendYield": 0.03481544891484969,
  "beta": 0.337,
  "priceToSales": 0.004386926,
  "priceToBook": 15.652382,
  "revenueTtm": 336754259800,
  "grossMargin": 0.18027171100300177,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.12404
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 52.02,
  "macd": 2.28,
  "sma50": 187.03,
  "sma200": 202.21,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 75,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 233.5,
  "analystTarget": 233.5,
  "analystCount": 4,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T16:57:17.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 198.565,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.35,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 194.59,
  "aggressiveEntry": 198.57,
  "stopLoss": 188.76,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   204.32,
   214.05,
   223.78
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 155.32,
    "base": 210.3,
    "upside90th": 284.74
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 145.1,
    "base": 222.73,
    "upside90th": 341.9
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 139.57,
    "base": 235.9,
    "upside90th": 398.73
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 136.29,
    "base": 249.84,
    "upside90th": 458.02
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 134.38,
    "base": 264.61,
    "upside90th": 521.06
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 133.41,
    "base": 280.26,
    "upside90th": 588.74
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 133.14,
    "base": 296.82,
    "upside90th": 661.75
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 133.41,
    "base": 314.37,
    "upside90th": 740.75
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 134.14,
    "base": 332.95,
    "upside90th": 826.41
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 135.25,
    "base": 352.63,
    "upside90th": 919.38
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "TM Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$197.32",
    "Day Range": "$197.32 to $198.88",
    "Prev Close": "$192.48",
    "Volume": "6.6K",
    "52-Week Range": "$166.10 to $248.90",
    "Market Cap": "$227.93B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-44%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "TM Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Toyota Motor Corporation is currently trading at $198.57, finding support near its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $187.03 and facing resistance at its 200-day SMA of $202.21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52.02, indicating neutral momentum. The MACD is positive at 2.28, suggesting some underlying bullish momentum. Volume has been exceptionally low recently, with the latest volume at 6,557 compared to a 338,856 average, which may limit the conviction behind recent price action.",
    "Toyota Motor Corporation reported an EPS of $7.66, significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $3.94 by 94.42%, indicating strong operational performance.",
    "With a P/E ratio of 8.43, Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a substantial discount compared to the sector average of 15.00, suggesting potential for valuation expansion.",
    "The stock is currently priced below its 200-day SMA of $202.21, which historically acts as a significant resistance level and may indicate near-term downward pressure.",
    "While the latest quarter showed a significant beat, the prior quarter experienced a substantial EPS miss, highlighting some volatility in earnings performance.",
    "The base case scenario for Toyota Motor Corporation over the next 6-12 months suggests a potential move towards its median analyst target price of $233.50, representing an upside of 17.6% from the current price of $198.57. This outlook is supported by its attractive valuation and strong recent earnings beat. Upside potential could be further realized if the stock decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA of $202.21 with increasing volume. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance level, coupled with a return to significant earnings misses or broader market downturns in the automotive sector, could lead to a retest of lower support levels."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor trading volume closely; exceptionally low volume recently may limit the conviction behind price movements.",
     "Consider the stock's position relative to its 200-day SMA ($202.21) as a key indicator for near-term trend direction.",
     "Given the stock's attractive P/E ratio relative to the sector, consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate short-term volatility."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong EPS Beat in Latest Quarter",
     "text": "Toyota Motor Corporation reported an EPS of $7.66, significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $3.94 by 94.42%, indicating strong operational performance.",
     "source": "Company Earnings Report"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Attractive Valuation Relative to Sector",
     "text": "With a P/E ratio of 8.43, Toyota Motor Corporation trades at a substantial discount compared to the sector average of 15.00, suggesting potential for valuation expansion.",
     "source": "Financial Data Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Trading Below 200-Day Moving Average",
     "text": "The stock is currently priced below its 200-day SMA of $202.21, which historically acts as a significant resistance level and may indicate near-term downward pressure.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Mixed Earnings Surprise History",
     "text": "While the latest quarter showed a significant beat, the prior quarter experienced a substantial EPS miss, highlighting some volatility in earnings performance.",
     "source": "Historical Earnings Data"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Toyota Motor Corporation's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 8.43, which is considerably lower than the sector average of 15.00, suggesting attractive valuation. The company's revenue growth for the current quarter is projected at 8.00%, aligning with sector averages. The low P/E ratio and positive revenue growth indicate a solid fundamental footing. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates, as seen in its recent performance, further supports its fundamental strength.",
    "Toyota Motor Corporation has demonstrated a strong earnings performance in its recent quarters. The latest reported EPS of $7.66 significantly surpassed the analyst estimate of $3.94 by 94.42%, although the stock saw a minor decline of 1.73% on the news. Prior to this, the company experienced a substantial EPS miss in the second quarter of 2026, reporting -$1.36 against an estimate of -$0.77. However, the periods before that showed strong beats, indicating a pattern of volatile but often positive earnings surprises.",
    "A primary risk for Toyota Motor Corporation is its current trading position below the 200-day Simple Moving Average ($202.21), which could signal near-term downward pressure. While the company has a history of strong earnings beats, the significant miss in Q2 2026 warrants attention. Also, the exceptionally low recent trading volume may limit the strength of any upward price movements."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "2.35T"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "8.43"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "22.84"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "3.05%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "248.90"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "166.10"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $187.03, 200-day: $202.21), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "52.02"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "2.28"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "187.03"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "202.21"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.51",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.44",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.15",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.12"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "TM Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (52.0) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$204.32",
    "TARGET 2": "$214.05",
    "TARGET 3": "$223.78",
    "STOP LOSS": "$188.76"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.35%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in TM in September 2016 would be worth about $15,993 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in TM today could grow to about $17,759 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $46,301 and a bear case around $6,812. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "TM Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $250 for TM by 2030 in the base case, from $199 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $136. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on TM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using TM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "TM simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$155",
        "$210",
        "$285"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$145",
        "$223",
        "$342"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$140",
        "$236",
        "$399"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$136",
        "$250",
        "$458"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$134",
        "$265",
        "$521"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$133",
        "$280",
        "$589"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$133",
        "$297",
        "$662"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$133",
        "$314",
        "$741"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$134",
        "$333",
        "$826"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$135",
        "$353",
        "$919"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SE Sea Limited Sponsored NYSE $106.21 -1.37%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/se-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "AMZN Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ $251.89 -0.2021%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/amazon-amzn/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CHWY Chewy Inc. NYSE $20.16 -4.36%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/chwy-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "PHM PulteGroup, Inc. NYSE $116.41 -2.12%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/phm-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. NYSE $88.09 +0.0682%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/best-buy-bby/"
    },
    {
     "text": "PAG Penske Automotive Group Inc. NYSE $216.61 -0.7787%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/penske-automotive-pag/"
    },
    {
     "text": "YUM Yum! Brands Inc. NYSE $144.51 -0.4512%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/yum-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. NYSE $197.88 +0.6562%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/lowes-companies-low/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/csx-vs-nsc/"
    },
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "TM Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "None",
    "Insiders": "1",
    "Avg Transaction": "N/A"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in TM",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Mar 25, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "TOMOYAMA SHIGEKI Officer",
        "Grant",
        "17",
        "$3.6K"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&amp;company=Toyota+Motor+Corporation+Sponsored&amp;type=4&amp;dateb=&amp;owner=include&amp;count=40&amp;search_text=&amp;action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is currently rated a Buy with a consensus score of 75 out of 100. The stock is trading at $198.57, with a median analyst target price of $233.50, suggesting an upside of 17.6%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Toyota Motor Corporation's price target for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Toyota Motor Corporation's base case price projection for 2030 is $249.84, with a downside scenario of $136.29 and an upside scenario of $458.02. These are simulation outcomes, not guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has Toyota Motor Corporation performed in recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "Toyota Motor Corporation recently reported an EPS of $7.66, significantly beating estimates by 94.42%. However, the stock experienced a 1.73% decline on this news. The company had a notable miss in the prior quarter but showed strong beats in earlier periods."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical indicators for Toyota Motor Corporation?",
   "answer": "Toyota Motor Corporation's technical indicators show neutral momentum with an RSI at 52.0 and positive MACD at 2.28. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA ($187.03) but below its 200-day SMA ($202.21)."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does Toyota Motor Corporation's valuation compare to its sector peers?",
   "answer": "Toyota Motor Corporation's P/E ratio of 8.43 is significantly lower than the sector average of 15.00, indicating a potentially attractive valuation. Revenue growth is projected at 8.00% for the current quarter."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the main risks facing Toyota Motor Corporation?",
   "answer": "Key risks include the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, which may indicate near-term weakness, and the recent exceptionally low trading volume, which could limit upside potential. A past earnings miss also warrants monitoring."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the outlook for Toyota Motor Corporation's revenue growth?",
   "answer": "Toyota Motor Corporation's revenue is expected to grow by 8.00% in the current quarter and 4.00% in the next quarter. For the current year, revenue growth is projected at a substantial 196.00%, followed by 3.00% growth next year."
  }
 ],
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/best-buy-bby/"
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   }
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    "ticker": "SYY",
    "text": "Sysco Corp.",
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