{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/sam-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/sam-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Boston Beer (SAM) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) stock: Consumer Defensive, Beverages - Brewers. $1.7B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)",
 "published": "2026-07-24T09:51:36+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-09T23:03:10.387+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:40:44.527Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "SAM",
  "name": "Boston Beer Company, Inc. Class A Common Stock",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
  "industry": "Beverages - Brewers",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.bostonbeer.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 169.52,
  "previousClose": 162.33,
  "change": 7.19,
  "changePercent": 4.43,
  "open": 163,
  "high": 173.89999,
  "low": 161.67,
  "volume": 346241,
  "averageVolume": 202494,
  "marketCap": 1670648576,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 264.45999,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 158.67999,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-09T23:02:57.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": -25.38,
  "eps": -6.68,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 0.833,
  "priceToSales": 0.9103222,
  "priceToBook": 2.4026916,
  "revenueTtm": 1925446016,
  "grossMargin": 0.5038726954734682,
  "returnOnEquity": -0.08614001
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 20.02,
  "macd": -4.29,
  "sma50": 179.95,
  "sma200": 203.14,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Sell",
  "score": 21,
  "consensus": "Sell",
  "fairValue": 195,
  "analystTarget": 195,
  "analystCount": 13,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T23:02:57.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 169.52,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.89,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bearish",
  "conservativeEntry": 172.91,
  "aggressiveEntry": 169.52,
  "stopLoss": 194.49,
  "stopLossPercent": 12.48,
  "targets": [
   164.26,
   155.62,
   146.97
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 103.33,
    "base": 174.18,
    "upside90th": 293.6
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 85.52,
    "base": 178.96,
    "upside90th": 374.5
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 74.43,
    "base": 183.88,
    "upside90th": 454.25
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 66.49,
    "base": 188.93,
    "upside90th": 536.82
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 60.4,
    "base": 194.12,
    "upside90th": 623.93
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 55.51,
    "base": 199.46,
    "upside90th": 716.64
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 51.48,
    "base": 204.94,
    "upside90th": 815.79
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 48.09,
    "base": 210.57,
    "upside90th": 922.09
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 45.17,
    "base": 216.35,
    "upside90th": 1036.21
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 42.64,
    "base": 222.3,
    "upside90th": 1158.83
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "SAM Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$163.00",
    "Day Range": "$161.67 to $173.90",
    "Prev Close": "$162.33",
    "Volume": "346.2K",
    "52-Week Range": "$158.68 to $264.46",
    "Market Cap": "$1.67B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-6% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "SAM Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, SAM beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "SAM Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Volume has surged 64.8% above its average, accompanying the recent price action for Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM). The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($179.95 and $203.14), and its 20-day EMA ($176.84), indicating a strong bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to an oversold level of 20.02, suggesting a potential for a near-term reversal, though this is not guaranteed given the prevailing downward momentum. Key support levels are being tested, with the current price of $162.33 hovering near recent lows. The MACD indicator is negative at -4.29, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. While the oversold RSI presents a possibility for a bounce, the sustained price weakness relative to key moving averages and the significant volume increase suggest that downward pressure may continue until fundamental catalysts emerge or insider selling abates.",
    "Insiders have sold $1.6 million worth of SAM stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects and potentially signaling further downside.",
    "SAM reported a 3.3% year-over-year revenue decline, and current estimates project flat growth for the next fiscal year, significantly lagging sector peers and raising concerns about market share.",
    "The stock is trading below key moving averages (50-day, 200-day, 20-day EMA) with a negative MACD, reinforcing a bearish trend despite an oversold RSI.",
    "With a median price target of $195.00, analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating, reflecting a balanced view of potential upside against current fundamental challenges.",
    "The base case outlook for Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is cautious, with a median Wall Street price target of $195.00 suggesting a potential 20.1% upside from current levels. However, this target is tempered by a 'Hold' consensus rating and ongoing negative fundamental trends. The company's revenue has declined, and forward estimates show minimal growth, which contrasts sharply with sector averages. A significant turnaround in sales and profitability would be required to achieve higher valuations. Potential catalysts for a bullish shift would include a clear reversal in revenue trends, positive earnings surprises, and a cessation of insider selling. Conversely, continued sales declines, increased competition, or further negative earnings surprises could push the stock towards its lower support levels. The long-range projection suggests a base case of $180.92 by 2030, but with significant downside risk to $63.67."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for any signs of revenue stabilization or growth, as this is critical for SAM's turnaround potential.",
     "Given the bearish technicals and oversold RSI, traders may look for short-term opportunities on any bounce, but the prevailing trend suggests caution for longer-term positions.",
     "The persistent insider selling is a key risk factor; any shift to net buying activity from insiders would be a significant positive signal."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Persistent Insider Selling Continues",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $1.6 million worth of SAM stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects and potentially signaling further downside.",
     "source": "Insider Trading Data"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Negative Revenue Growth Trend",
     "text": "SAM reported a 3.3% year-over-year revenue decline, and current estimates project flat growth for the next fiscal year, significantly lagging sector peers and raising concerns about market share.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Setup",
     "text": "The stock is trading below key moving averages (50-day, 200-day, 20-day EMA) with a negative MACD, reinforcing a bearish trend despite an oversold RSI.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus",
     "text": "With a median price target of $195.00, analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating, reflecting a balanced view of potential upside against current fundamental challenges.",
     "source": "Wall Street Summary"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) presents a challenging fundamental picture, with a negative EPS of -6.68 rendering traditional P/E ratio analysis impossible. The company's revenue has contracted by 3.3% year-over-year, and current year revenue estimates project a further 2.00% decline, with next year's growth expected to be flat at 0.00%. This contrasts sharply with the sector average revenue growth of 10.00%, indicating SAM is losing market share or facing significant headwinds. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the negative profitability and revenue trends raise concerns. The current valuation is difficult to justify given the lack of growth and profitability. While the median analyst target price of $195.00 offers a potential upside, the 'Hold' consensus and the company's current financial trajectory suggest that the stock may struggle to reach these levels without a significant turnaround in sales and profitability.",
    "Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) has shown a pattern of missing earnings estimates in recent quarters. The latest earnings report on July 23, 2026, showed an EPS of $3.65 against an estimate of $4.83, a miss of 24.43%, which was followed by a 3.23% price increase. Prior to that, on April 30, 2026, the company missed estimates by 16.75% with an EPS of $1.64 versus $1.97, leading to a 9.59% price drop. While there was a positive surprise in October 2025, the overall trend indicates significant earnings volatility and a struggle to meet analyst expectations.",
    "Persistent insider selling, with $1.6 million in sales and no reported purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management in the company's near-term prospects. The company is experiencing negative revenue growth, with current year sales down 3.3% and projected flat growth for next year, significantly underperforming the sector average. Also, the stock is trading well below its key moving averages, with an oversold RSI suggesting potential for further downside if current trends persist."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "1.67B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "N/A (Negative EPS)"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "-6.68"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "264.46"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "158.68"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $179.95, 200-day: $203.14), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 20.0 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "20.02"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-4.29"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "179.95"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "203.14"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.13",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.04",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.08",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.03"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "SAM Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for rally",
    "Higher risk, chasing the move",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (20.0) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$164.26",
    "TARGET 2": "$155.62",
    "TARGET 3": "$146.97",
    "STOP LOSS": "$194.49"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "-1.72%",
    "Average Feb return": "-1.03%",
    "Average Mar return": "+1.80%",
    "Average Apr return": "+4.41%",
    "Average May return": "+1.38%",
    "Average Jun return": "-0.89%",
    "Average Jul return": "+7.10%",
    "Average Aug return": "-0.24%",
    "Average Sep return": "-3.31%",
    "Average Oct return": "+2.93%",
    "Average Nov return": "-0.31%",
    "Average Dec return": "-1.37%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.89%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in SAM in September 2016 would be worth about $9,300 today, compared with about $35,913 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SAM today could grow to about $13,113 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $68,359 and a bear case around $2,516. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "SAM Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $189 for SAM by 2030 in the base case, from $170 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $66.49. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SAM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SAM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "SAM simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$103",
        "$174",
        "$294"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$85.52",
        "$179",
        "$375"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$74.43",
        "$184",
        "$454"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$66.49",
        "$189",
        "$537"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$60.40",
        "$194",
        "$624"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$55.51",
        "$199",
        "$717"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$51.48",
        "$205",
        "$816"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$48.09",
        "$211",
        "$922"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$45.17",
        "$216",
        "$1,036"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$42.64",
        "$222",
        "$1,159"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "MDLZ Mondelēz International, Inc. NASDAQ $62.27 -0.3202%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mdlz-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "MNST Monster Beverage Corporation NASDAQ $43.09 +0.5836%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mnst-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "PM Philip Morris International Inc. NYSE $189.77 +2.19%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/pm-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "WMT Walmart Inc. NASDAQ $105.73 -0.0945%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/walmart-wmt/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KO The Coca-Cola Company NYSE $88.11 +0.3188%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/coca-cola-ko/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation NASDAQ $98.48 -0.2229%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/kmb-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "TGT Target Corp. NYSE $157.52 -3.19%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/target-tgt/"
    },
    {
     "text": "TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company NYSE $38.79 +0.9105%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/tap-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "CSX vs NSC Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/csx-vs-nsc/"
    },
    {
     "text": "VTI vs SCHB Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vti-vs-schb/"
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/apa-vs-ovv/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "SAM Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$1.6M",
    "Insiders": "17",
    "Avg Transaction": "$524.4K"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in SAM",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jan 4, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "GEIST JOHN C Officer",
        "Sell",
        "11.7K",
        "$11.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 4, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "FISHER CYNTHIA A Director",
        "Sell",
        "10.2K",
        "$10.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 26, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "CALAGIONE SAMUEL A III Officer",
        "Sell",
        "20.5K",
        "$10.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 9, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "KOCH C. JAMES Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "12.8K",
        "$10.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 11, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "CALAGIONE SAMUEL A III Officer",
        "Sell",
        "27.0K",
        "$9.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 11, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "KOCH C. JAMES Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "10.0K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 1, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "KOCH C. JAMES Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "10.0K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 8, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "KOCH C. JAMES Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "10.0K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 9, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "KOCH C. JAMES Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "10.0K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 7, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "KOCH C. JAMES Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "10.0K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Boston+Beer+Company%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "SAM is currently rated 'Sell' with a consensus score of 20, reflecting significant headwinds. While the stock is oversold technically, persistent insider selling and negative revenue growth present substantial risks, making it a difficult buy at this time."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is SAM's long-term outlook based on the Monte Carlo simulation?",
   "answer": "The Monte Carlo simulation for SAM projects a base case price of $180.92 by 2030, with a downside scenario of $63.67 and an upside scenario of $514.05. These are statistical outcomes and not definitive price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key risks facing Boston Beer Company, Inc.?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for SAM include ongoing negative revenue trends, significant insider selling, and a bearish technical setup. Competitive pressures within the beverage industry also pose a threat to market share and profitability."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does SAM's revenue growth compare to its sector averages?",
   "answer": "SAM's revenue growth is currently negative at -3.3%, significantly underperforming the Consumer Defensive sector average of 10.0%. Current year estimates project flat growth for SAM next year, indicating a continued struggle to gain traction."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus for SAM stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for SAM is 'Hold', with 11 out of 13 analysts recommending this rating. The overall Wall Street score is 50 out of 100, indicating a neutral stance from analysts."
  },
  {
   "question": "What does the insider trading activity suggest for SAM?",
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      "text": "SAM is currently rated 'Sell' with a consensus score of 20, reflecting significant headwinds. While the stock is oversold technically, persistent insider selling and negative revenue growth present substantial risks, making it a difficult buy at this time."
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      "text": "SAM's technicals are bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The RSI is at an oversold level of 20.02, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains downward."
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}