{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/pony-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/pony-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Pony AI (PONY) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Pony AI Inc. (PONY) stock: Technology, Information Technology Services. $2.9B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Pony AI Inc. (PONY)",
 "published": "2026-07-21T09:44:03+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T02:27:36.473+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:55.031Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "PONY",
  "name": "Pony AI Inc.",
  "type": "American Depositary Receipt",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Technology",
  "industry": "Information Technology Services",
  "country": "China",
  "website": "https://pony.ai"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 6.63,
  "previousClose": 6.76,
  "change": -0.13,
  "changePercent": -1.92,
  "open": 6.66,
  "high": 6.82,
  "low": 6.605,
  "volume": 3211769,
  "averageVolume": 3217787,
  "marketCap": 2880162267,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 24.92,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 6.365,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T02:27:34.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": -18.957143511090962,
  "eps": -0.33,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": 24.945333,
  "priceToBook": 1.9757842,
  "revenueTtm": 125037000,
  "grossMargin": 0.17531750414135835,
  "returnOnEquity": -0.067719996
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 33.33,
  "macd": -0.23,
  "sma50": 7.41,
  "sma200": 10.87,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 78,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 6.7,
  "analystTarget": 21,
  "analystCount": 18,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T02:27:34.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 6.63,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 3.22,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 6.5,
  "aggressiveEntry": 6.63,
  "stopLoss": 6.18,
  "stopLossPercent": 4.88,
  "targets": [
   6.82,
   7.15,
   7.47
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 3.5,
    "base": 6.65,
    "upside90th": 12.62
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 2.69,
    "base": 6.66,
    "upside90th": 16.49
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 2.2,
    "base": 6.68,
    "upside90th": 20.27
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 1.86,
    "base": 6.7,
    "upside90th": 24.13
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 1.6,
    "base": 6.71,
    "upside90th": 28.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 1.4,
    "base": 6.73,
    "upside90th": 32.34
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 1.24,
    "base": 6.75,
    "upside90th": 36.77
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 1.1,
    "base": 6.76,
    "upside90th": 41.44
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 0.99,
    "base": 6.78,
    "upside90th": 46.37
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 0.9,
    "base": 6.8,
    "upside90th": 51.58
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "PONY Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$6.66",
    "Day Range": "$6.61 to $6.82",
    "Prev Close": "$6.76",
    "Volume": "3.21M",
    "52-Week Range": "$6.37 to $24.92",
    "Market Cap": "$2.88B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, PONY trades at 24.95x, far above the sector average of 4.20x."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "PONY Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, PONY beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "PONY Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Pony AI Inc. is currently trading below its key moving averages, with its price below the 50-day SMA of $7.41 and the 200-day SMA of $10.87. The 20-day EMA also sits above the current price at $7.33, reinforcing the bearish short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 33.33, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is slightly negative at -0.23. The nearest support level is the current price around $6.63, with resistance seen at the 20-day EMA ($7.33) and the 50-day SMA ($7.41). Volume has been slightly below its average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers in the immediate term. The current chart structure points to continued pressure until the stock can reclaim its key moving averages.",
    "Next year's revenue is projected to grow by 99.00% to $225.1 million, indicating significant market traction and demand for Pony AI's services.",
    "The median analyst price target is $21, representing a 216.7% upside from the current price, reflecting strong institutional confidence.",
    "Pony AI Inc. has exceeded EPS estimates in its last four reported quarters, demonstrating effective operational management.",
    "Insiders have sold $158.8K worth of shares across two transactions, indicating a degree of profit-taking or reallocation of capital.",
    "The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($7.41 and $10.87), with a bearish RSI reading, suggesting potential for further downside in the short term.",
    "The outlook for Pony AI Inc. over the next 6-12 months is cautiously optimistic, primarily driven by its exceptional revenue growth trajectory and strong analyst conviction. With next year's revenue projected to nearly double to $225.1 million (capped from $297.9M), the company is well-positioned for significant expansion. The median Wall Street price target of $21 suggests a potential upside of over 200%, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects. However, the thesis could be challenged by persistent technical weakness, with the stock trading below key moving averages and showing bearish momentum. Any failure to reclaim these levels or a continuation of insider selling could dampen sentiment. Conversely, continued strong execution on revenue growth and successful navigation of its negative EPS phase could lead to the higher end of analyst targets, particularly if market sentiment shifts favorably towards growth-oriented technology companies."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Pony AI Inc.'s substantial revenue growth, projected at 99.00% next year, provides a strong foundation for future expansion, despite current technical headwinds.",
     "Given the bearish technical indicators, consider waiting for confirmation of a trend reversal, such as reclaiming the 50-day SMA at $7.41, before initiating new positions.",
     "With a moderate sell signal from insiders, monitor future transactions closely; a shift towards net buying would be a significant bullish catalyst."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Revenue Growth Estimates",
     "text": "Next year's revenue is projected to grow by 99.00% to $225.1 million, indicating significant market traction and demand for Pony AI's services.",
     "source": "Wall Street Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "High Wall Street Price Target",
     "text": "The median analyst price target is $21, representing a 216.7% upside from the current price, reflecting strong institutional confidence.",
     "source": "Wall Street Consensus"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Consistent EPS Beats",
     "text": "Pony AI Inc. has exceeded EPS estimates in its last four reported quarters, demonstrating effective operational management.",
     "source": "Earnings Reports"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $158.8K worth of shares across two transactions, indicating a degree of profit-taking or reallocation of capital.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Momentum",
     "text": "The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($7.41 and $10.87), with a bearish RSI reading, suggesting potential for further downside in the short term.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Pony AI Inc. exhibits a strong revenue growth profile, with current year estimates projecting a 67.00% increase and next year's estimates showing a remarkable 99.00% growth, reaching $225.1 million. While the company's EPS is negative at -0.33, making P/E ratio analysis impossible, the significant top-line expansion suggests increasing market penetration and demand for its services. The company's financial health is further supported by a substantial cash position, indicated by its cash-to-market-cap ratio, providing a buffer against operational burn. Compared to the technology sector averages, Pony AI's revenue growth significantly outpaces the sector's 10.0% average. However, without positive EPS, a direct comparison on profitability metrics like ROE is not feasible. The current valuation, while not directly comparable via P/E, is underpinned by high growth expectations, as reflected in the optimistic Wall Street price targets.",
    "Pony AI Inc. has shown consistent positive surprises in its recent earnings reports. The latest quarter ending August 18, 2026, reported an EPS of -0.10 against an estimate of -0.17, a 41.18% beat, with the stock reacting positively with a 1.1% price increase. Prior quarters also demonstrated strong performance relative to expectations, with EPS beats of 60% and 30.77% in June and May 2026, respectively. This pattern of exceeding analyst expectations, even with negative EPS, suggests effective cost management or better-than-anticipated revenue generation.",
    "The primary risks for Pony AI Inc. include its current technical weakness, trading below key moving averages and exhibiting bearish momentum on the RSI. Additionally, moderate insider selling, with $158.8K in sales across two transactions, signals a degree of caution from management. The company's negative EPS also presents a long-term profitability challenge that needs to be addressed as it scales."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "2.88B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "N/A (Negative EPS)"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "-0.3300"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "24.92"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "6.37"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Bearish SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $7.405, 200-day: $10.87), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bearish",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "33.33"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-0.23"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "7.41"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "10.87"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.37",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.38",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.27",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.06"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "PONY Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (33.3) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$6.822",
    "TARGET 2": "$7.147",
    "TARGET 3": "$7.472",
    "STOP LOSS": "$6.180"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "⚠️ Limited data: Based on ~1 year of trading history. Patterns may not be statistically significant."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "-13.50%",
    "Average Feb return": "+14.67%",
    "Average Mar return": "-36.91%",
    "Average Apr return": "+11.19%",
    "Average May return": "+63.21%",
    "Average Jun return": "-29.97%",
    "Average Jul return": "+4.89%",
    "Average Aug return": "+3.73%",
    "Average Sep return": "+58.49%",
    "Average Oct return": "-18.85%",
    "Average Nov return": "-8.56%",
    "Average Dec return": "+7.03%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "3.22%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in PONY in November 2024 would be worth about $5,525 today, compared with about $12,655 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PONY today could grow to about $10,255 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $77,798 and a bear case around $1,352. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "PONY Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $6.70 for PONY by 2030 in the base case, from $6.63 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $1.86. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PONY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PONY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "PONY simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$3.50",
        "$6.65",
        "$12.62"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$2.69",
        "$6.66",
        "$16.49"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$2.20",
        "$6.68",
        "$20.27"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$1.86",
        "$6.70",
        "$24.13"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$1.60",
        "$6.71",
        "$28.14"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$1.40",
        "$6.73",
        "$32.34"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$1.24",
        "$6.75",
        "$36.77"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$1.10",
        "$6.76",
        "$41.44"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$0.9919",
        "$6.78",
        "$46.37"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$0.8962",
        "$6.80",
        "$51.58"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/yum-vs-qsr/"
    },
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "PONY Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$158.8K",
    "Insiders": "2",
    "Avg Transaction": "$158.8K"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in PONY",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Mar 30, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "WANG HAOJUN Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "18.3K",
        "$158.8K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 25, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "LOU TIANCHENG Chief Technology Officer",
        "Grant",
        "31.3K",
        "-"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Pony+AI+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is Pony AI Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Pony AI Inc.'s stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $6.70, with a downside scenario of $1.86 and an upside scenario of $24.13. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is Pony AI Inc. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Pony AI Inc. is rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts with a consensus score of 78 and a median price target of $21, suggesting significant upside. However, the stock shows recent technical weakness and moderate insider selling."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Pony AI Inc.?",
   "answer": "The main risks for Pony AI Inc. include its current bearish technical momentum, moderate insider selling totaling $158.8K, and negative EPS which hinders traditional valuation metrics."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is Pony AI Inc.'s revenue growth compared to its sector?",
   "answer": "Pony AI Inc. demonstrates exceptional revenue growth, with current year estimates at +67.00% and next year at +99.00%, significantly outpacing the technology sector's average revenue growth of 10.00%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Pony AI Inc.'s recent earnings performance?",
   "answer": "Pony AI Inc. has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 41.18% beat in the latest quarter ending August 18, 2026, with an EPS of -0.10 against an estimate of -0.17."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the outlook for Pony AI Inc. in the next 12 months?",
   "answer": "The outlook for Pony AI Inc. is positive, driven by strong projected revenue growth of 99.00% next year and a median Wall Street price target of $21, indicating substantial upside potential from the current price."
  },
  {
   "question": "Does Pony AI Inc. pay dividends?",
   "answer": "Pony AI Inc. does not currently pay dividends, as indicated by a dividend yield of 0%."
  }
 ],
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    "ticker": "TSM",
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