{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/phm-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/phm-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock: Consumer Cyclical, Residential Construction. $22.2B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)",
 "published": "2026-07-23T09:47:33+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T00:27:39.938+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T21:01:06.474Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "PHM",
  "name": "PulteGroup, Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Residential Construction",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://pultegroupinc.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 116.41,
  "previousClose": 118.93,
  "change": -2.52,
  "changePercent": -2.12,
  "open": 116.42,
  "high": 117.575,
  "low": 114.78,
  "volume": 2181236,
  "averageVolume": 1416074,
  "marketCap": 22174516352,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 144.5,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 108.49,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T00:27:36.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 12.264556,
  "eps": 9.79,
  "dividendYield": 0.00893317313483189,
  "beta": 1.201,
  "priceToSales": 1.3940141,
  "priceToBook": 1.7315373,
  "revenueTtm": 16407075840,
  "grossMargin": 0.25044734351889814,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.14901
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 26.42,
  "macd": -2.47,
  "sma50": 127.64,
  "sma200": 125.29,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Sell",
  "score": 21,
  "consensus": "Sell",
  "fairValue": 116.41,
  "analystTarget": 146,
  "analystCount": 16,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T00:27:36.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 116.41,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.86,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bearish",
  "conservativeEntry": 118.74,
  "aggressiveEntry": 116.41,
  "stopLoss": 123.51,
  "stopLossPercent": 4.02,
  "targets": [
   112.8,
   106.86,
   100.93
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 81.82,
    "base": 131,
    "upside90th": 209.75
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 75.76,
    "base": 147.42,
    "upside90th": 286.85
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 73.41,
    "base": 165.89,
    "upside90th": 374.9
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 72.82,
    "base": 186.68,
    "upside90th": 478.59
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 73.32,
    "base": 210.08,
    "upside90th": 601.87
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 74.63,
    "base": 236.4,
    "upside90th": 748.88
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 76.57,
    "base": 266.03,
    "upside90th": 924.29
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 79.06,
    "base": 299.37,
    "upside90th": 1133.53
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 82.07,
    "base": 336.89,
    "upside90th": 1382.88
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 85.56,
    "base": 379.11,
    "upside90th": 1679.72
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "PHM Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$116.42",
    "Day Range": "$114.78 to $117.58",
    "Prev Close": "$118.93",
    "Volume": "2.18M",
    "52-Week Range": "$108.49 to $144.50",
    "Market Cap": "$22.17B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (0.0372% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "PHM Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, PHM beat estimates 1 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "PHM Analysis",
   "text": [
    "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $127.64 and its 200-day SMA of $125.29, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.42, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term reversal or bounce. The MACD is also negative at -2.47, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price of $116.41, with resistance found at the 50-day SMA of $127.64. Volume has been above average recently, with 2,181,236 shares traded, which is 54% above the average volume, suggesting increased investor interest but currently in a downtrend. The overall technical picture points to significant downside risk from current levels.",
    "PulteGroup's current year revenue is projected to decline by 5.00%, following a recent -9.6% year-over-year decrease. This sustained top-line contraction poses a significant risk to future profitability and valuation.",
    "Insiders have sold a total of $29.3 million in stock, with no reported purchases. This moderate insider selling indicates a lack of confidence from management and could signal further downside pressure.",
    "The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($127.64) and 200-day SMA ($125.29), with an oversold RSI of 26.42. This suggests a strong bearish trend and potential for further price depreciation.",
    "The RSI reading of 26.42 indicates the stock is oversold, which could lead to a short-term technical bounce or reversal as buyers step in.",
    "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) faces a challenging outlook, with current price action below key moving averages and negative revenue growth suggesting potential for further downside. The median analyst price target of $146.00 implies an upside of 25.4% from the current price of $116.41, but this is tempered by the bearish technicals and moderate insider selling. The company's current year revenue is projected to decline by 5.00%, although a modest recovery is expected in the following year. The primary catalyst for a potential turnaround would be a significant improvement in the housing market, a reduction in interest rates, or a strong beat on upcoming earnings reports. Conversely, persistent negative revenue trends, rising interest rates, or increased competition could push the stock towards its lower support levels. The oversold RSI presents a short-term opportunity for a bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish without fundamental improvements."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Given the bearish technicals and negative revenue growth, consider implementing a tighter stop-loss strategy, potentially 1.5x the daily volatility of 7.9%, which would place it around $104.50.",
     "The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($127.64 and $125.29), indicating a bearish trend. Monitor for any sustained break above the 50-day SMA ($127.64) as a potential early sign of trend reversal.",
     "Moderate insider selling totaling $29.3 million warrants attention. While not a definitive sell signal, it suggests management's current assessment of the company's prospects may be cautious."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Persistent Negative Revenue Growth",
     "text": "PulteGroup's current year revenue is projected to decline by 5.00%, following a recent -9.6% year-over-year decrease. This sustained top-line contraction poses a significant risk to future profitability and valuation.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold a total of $29.3 million in stock, with no reported purchases. This moderate insider selling indicates a lack of confidence from management and could signal further downside pressure.",
     "source": "Insider Summary"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Indicators",
     "text": "The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($127.64) and 200-day SMA ($125.29), with an oversold RSI of 26.42. This suggests a strong bearish trend and potential for further price depreciation.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Oversold RSI Suggests Potential Bounce",
     "text": "The RSI reading of 26.42 indicates the stock is oversold, which could lead to a short-term technical bounce or reversal as buyers step in.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) exhibits a P/E ratio of 12.26, which appears reasonable when compared to the sector average P/E of 12.26, suggesting fair valuation on this metric. However, the company's revenue growth has turned negative, declining by 9.6% year-over-year for the current year, which contrasts with the sector average revenue growth of 5.0%. This decline in top-line performance, coupled with an oversold technical condition, raises concerns about future earnings potential. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $9.79, and the market capitalization is $22.17 billion. While the P/E ratio is in line with sector averages, the negative revenue growth is a key concern. The stock is trading below its key moving averages, indicating that the market may be pricing in further challenges for the homebuilding sector.",
    "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) most recently reported an EPS of $1.21, slightly missing the estimate of $1.22 by 0.82% in July 2026, with the stock price reacting positively with a 2% gain. Prior to that, in April 2026, the company missed estimates by 1.1% with an EPS of $1.79 against an estimate of $1.81, leading to a 2.36% price decline. The company did, however, beat estimates by a significant 16.15% in January 2026, reporting an EPS of $1.87 versus an estimate of $1.61, though the stock saw a minor dip of 0.07%. Overall, the earnings trend shows inconsistency with recent performance indicating a slight downturn.",
    "PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) faces significant risks stemming from its negative revenue growth of -9.6% year-over-year for the current year, which is a stark contrast to the sector average of 5.0%. Also, the stock is trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling bearish momentum and potential for further price declines. Moderate insider selling, with $29.3 million in total sales, also indicates a lack of confidence from management in the near-term outlook."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "22.17B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "12.26"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "9.79"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.8590%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "144.50"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "108.49"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($127.64) above the 200-day SMA ($125.29), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 26.4 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "26.42"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-2.47"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "127.64"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "125.29"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.37",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.26",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.00",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.09"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "PHM Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for rally",
    "Higher risk, chasing the move",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (26.4) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$112.80",
    "TARGET 2": "$106.86",
    "TARGET 3": "$100.93",
    "STOP LOSS": "$123.51"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+6.66%",
    "Average Feb return": "-2.63%",
    "Average Mar return": "-2.90%",
    "Average Apr return": "+7.25%",
    "Average May return": "+2.57%",
    "Average Jun return": "+1.74%",
    "Average Jul return": "+6.19%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.05%",
    "Average Sep return": "-2.54%",
    "Average Oct return": "-1.75%",
    "Average Nov return": "+6.58%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.38%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.86%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in PHM in September 2016 would be worth about $57,600 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PHM today could grow to about $32,566 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $144,293 and a bear case around $7,350. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "PHM Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $187 for PHM by 2030 in the base case, from $116 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $72.82. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PHM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PHM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "PHM simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$81.82",
        "$131",
        "$210"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$75.76",
        "$147",
        "$287"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$73.41",
        "$166",
        "$375"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$72.82",
        "$187",
        "$479"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$73.32",
        "$210",
        "$602"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$74.63",
        "$236",
        "$749"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$76.57",
        "$266",
        "$924"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$79.06",
        "$299",
        "$1,134"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$82.07",
        "$337",
        "$1,383"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$85.56",
        "$379",
        "$1,680"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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    {
     "text": "MRDN Golden Matrix Group, Inc. NASDAQ $13.38 -2.41%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mrdn-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. NASDAQ $546.65 +2.06%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/ulta-beauty-ulta/"
    },
    {
     "text": "TM Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored NYSE $198.57 +3.16%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/tm-stock-analysis/"
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    {
     "text": "NKE Nike, Inc. NYSE $36.64 +0.0546%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/nike-nke/"
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    {
     "text": "MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited NYSE $9.06 -1.84%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/miniso-group-mnso/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "XRP/USD vs HBAR/USD Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/xrp-vs-hbar/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "PHM Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$29.3M",
    "Insiders": "16",
    "Avg Transaction": "$2.9M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in PHM",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Feb 5, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "MARSHALL RYAN R Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "111.3K",
        "$14.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 23, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "O SHAUGHNESSY ROBERT T Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "71.0K",
        "$9.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 28, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "O SHAUGHNESSY ROBERT T Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "115.1K",
        "$7.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jan 26, 2017",
       "cells": [
        "DUGAS RICHARD J JR Director",
        "Sell",
        "341.2K",
        "$7.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 27, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "MARSHALL RYAN R Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "98.0K",
        "$6.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 25, 2016",
       "cells": [
        "DUGAS RICHARD J JR Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "243.1K",
        "$5.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 5, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "FOLLIARD THOMAS J Director",
        "Sell",
        "37.0K",
        "$5.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 27, 2017",
       "cells": [
        "ELLINGHAUSEN JAMES R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "136.9K",
        "$4.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 5, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "O SHAUGHNESSY ROBERT T Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "90.5K",
        "$4.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 17, 2017",
       "cells": [
        "DUGAS RICHARD J JR Director",
        "Sell",
        "162.0K",
        "$3.9M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=PulteGroup%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is PulteGroup's stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "PulteGroup's long-range projection for 2030 estimates a base price of $186.68, with a downside scenario of $72.82 and an upside scenario of $478.59. These figures are derived from Monte Carlo simulations and are not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is PulteGroup stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Currently, PulteGroup (PHM) is rated a 'Sell' with a consensus score of 20, trading below key moving averages and exhibiting negative revenue growth. While Wall Street has a 'Buy' consensus, the technicals and insider selling suggest a bearish outlook."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks for PulteGroup?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for PulteGroup include negative revenue growth, bearish technical indicators with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($127.64 and $125.29), and moderate insider selling totaling $29.3 million, suggesting potential headwinds in the housing market."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does PulteGroup's valuation compare to its sector?",
   "answer": "PulteGroup's P/E ratio of 12.26 is in line with the sector average of 12.26. However, its revenue growth is negative at -9.6%, contrasting with the sector average of 5.0%, indicating potential fundamental weakness despite a seemingly fair P/E ratio."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the RSI status for PulteGroup?",
   "answer": "PulteGroup's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently 26.42, which is considered 'Oversold'. This suggests that the stock may be due for a short-term bounce, but it does not negate the broader bearish trend indicated by other technical indicators."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the recent earnings trend for PulteGroup?",
   "answer": "PulteGroup has shown an inconsistent earnings trend, recently missing estimates slightly in July 2026 and April 2026, although it achieved a significant beat in January 2026. This mixed performance suggests variability in its ability to meet analyst expectations."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the outlook for PulteGroup's revenue growth?",
   "answer": "Revenue estimates indicate a continued decline for the current quarter and year, with a -5.00% growth rate projected for both. A slight recovery is anticipated for the next quarter and next year, with projected growth rates of +5.00% and +4.00% respectively."
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      "text": "PulteGroup's long-range projection for 2030 estimates a base price of $186.68, with a downside scenario of $72.82 and an upside scenario of $478.59. These figures are derived from Monte Carlo simulations and are not guaranteed price targets."
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      "text": "PulteGroup has shown an inconsistent earnings trend, recently missing estimates slightly in July 2026 and April 2026, although it achieved a significant beat in January 2026. This mixed performance suggests variability in its ability to meet analyst expectations."
     }
    },
    {
     "@type": "Question",
     "name": "What is the outlook for PulteGroup's revenue growth?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Revenue estimates indicate a continued decline for the current quarter and year, with a -5.00% growth rate projected for both. A slight recovery is anticipated for the next quarter and next year, with projected growth rates of +5.00% and +4.00% respectively."
     }
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 ]
}