{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/payx-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/payx-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Paychex Inc. (PAYX) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Paychex (PAYX) analysis: AI price forecast, dividend yield, payroll demand trends, key support levels and the bear case. Updated daily.",
 "headline": "Paychex Inc. (PAYX)",
 "published": "2026-09-06T09:24:15+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-12T01:16:12.146+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-12T22:55:20.569Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "PAYX",
  "name": "Paychex Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Technology",
  "industry": "Software - Application",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.paychex.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 115.8,
  "previousClose": 115.18,
  "change": 0.62,
  "changePercent": 0.54,
  "open": 115.029999,
  "high": 115.97,
  "low": 114.795,
  "volume": 1762228,
  "averageVolume": 2359433,
  "marketCap": 41222538773,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 139.53,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 85.45,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-12T01:15:58.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 23.554193,
  "eps": 4.89,
  "dividendYield": 0.04111245508884179,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": 10.333123,
  "priceToBook": 10.965347,
  "revenueTtm": 3968000000,
  "grossMargin": 0.740080971659919,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.47123236325667317
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 29.25,
  "macd": -0.17,
  "sma50": 117.61,
  "sma200": 104.14,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 43,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 115.8,
  "analystTarget": 112,
  "analystCount": 19,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T01:15:58.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 115.8,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.67,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 114.64,
  "aggressiveEntry": 115.8,
  "stopLoss": 110.86,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.3,
  "targets": [
   118.08,
   120.37,
   123.81
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 89.07,
    "base": 123.9,
    "upside90th": 172.36
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 83.12,
    "base": 132.57,
    "upside90th": 211.44
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 80.07,
    "base": 141.84,
    "upside90th": 251.26
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 78.42,
    "base": 151.77,
    "upside90th": 293.7
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 77.62,
    "base": 162.38,
    "upside90th": 339.71
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 77.4,
    "base": 173.74,
    "upside90th": 390.01
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 77.62,
    "base": 185.9,
    "upside90th": 445.22
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 78.19,
    "base": 198.9,
    "upside90th": 505.98
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 79.05,
    "base": 212.81,
    "upside90th": 572.93
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 80.17,
    "base": 227.7,
    "upside90th": 646.74
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 8,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "PAYX Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$115.03",
    "Day Range": "$114.80 to $115.97",
    "Prev Close": "$115.18",
    "Volume": "1.76M",
    "52-Week Range": "$85.45 to $139.53",
    "Market Cap": "$41.22B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-31%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "PAYX Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Paychex Inc. is currently trading at $115.80, below its 50-day moving average of $117.61 and its 20-day exponential moving average of $120.56, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.25, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a bounce. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -0.17, further reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support levels are critical given the current technical setup. While the stock is trading above its 200-day SMA of $104.14, the proximity to the 50-day SMA at $117.61 presents immediate resistance. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume of 1.76 million compared to an average of 2.36 million, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action. Investors should watch for a potential reversal signal from the oversold RSI, but the current trend and insider selling warrant caution.",
    "Insiders have sold $25.8 million worth of stock against minimal purchases of $197.3 thousand, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term stock performance.",
    "Projected revenue growth of 5.00% to 6.00% significantly trails the technology sector median of 24.1%, raising concerns about competitive positioning and future expansion.",
    "The stock's RSI is at 29.25, indicating oversold conditions that historically can precede a price reversal or bounce.",
    "Paychex Inc. has a track record of beating EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 4.38% surprise, demonstrating operational reliability.",
    "The base case outlook for Paychex Inc. suggests a period of consolidation or modest decline, given the current technical indicators and Wall Street's neutral stance. With a median analyst price target of $112.00, below the current price, and moderate insider selling, the near-term upside appears limited. The company's lower projected revenue growth compared to its sector peers also weighs on future expansion expectations. Potential catalysts for a bullish reversal would likely stem from a significant shift in insider sentiment, a strong earnings beat coupled with positive forward guidance, or a broader market rally that lifts oversold technology stocks. Conversely, a failure to break out of its current bearish technical trend, continued sluggish revenue growth, or any negative news regarding client retention could push the stock towards its 200-day moving average support at $104.14, or even lower if broader market conditions deteriorate."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Paychex Inc. is trading in oversold territory according to its RSI, which could signal a potential short-term bounce, but this should be confirmed by a shift in insider sentiment and improving technical momentum.",
     "Given the moderate insider selling and below-sector revenue growth, consider a conservative position sizing until a clear bullish catalyst emerges.",
     "The stock's current price action is below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish short-term trend that investors should monitor closely for any signs of reversal."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling Signal",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $25.8 million worth of stock against minimal purchases of $197.3 thousand, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term stock performance.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Below Sector Revenue Growth",
     "text": "Projected revenue growth of 5.00% to 6.00% significantly trails the technology sector median of 24.1%, raising concerns about competitive positioning and future expansion.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Oversold RSI Conditions",
     "text": "The stock's RSI is at 29.25, indicating oversold conditions that historically can precede a price reversal or bounce.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Consistent Earnings Beats",
     "text": "Paychex Inc. has a track record of beating EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 4.38% surprise, demonstrating operational reliability.",
     "source": "Earnings Reports"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Paychex Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture with a P/E ratio of 23.55, which is below the sector median of 34, implying a potential valuation discount. However, its projected revenue growth of 5.00% for the next quarter and 6.00% for the current year lags behind the sector's median revenue growth of 24.1%. This suggests that the lower P/E might be justified by more modest growth prospects compared to industry peers. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $4.89, and it has consistently beaten analyst estimates in recent quarters, with the latest quarter showing a 4.38% surprise. Despite these earnings beats, the stock's current price action and Wall Street's neutral consensus suggest that the market may be looking past recent performance towards future growth expectations. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the lack of significant debt-to-equity ratio compared to the sector average (estimated at 0.0) is a positive.",
    "Paychex Inc. has demonstrated a pattern of beating analyst expectations in its recent earnings reports. The most recent quarter ending July 30, 2026, saw actual EPS of $2.62 against an estimate of $2.51, a 4.38% surprise, with the stock reacting positively with a 0.44% price increase. Prior quarters also show consistent beats, indicating operational efficiency and reliable forecasting from management.",
    "Moderate insider selling, with total sales exceeding $25.8 million against minimal purchases, presents a key risk, signaling potential concerns among management regarding future stock performance. The stock's current oversold RSI of 29.25, while potentially indicating a bounce, also reflects significant selling pressure and bearish momentum. Also, Paychex's projected revenue growth of 5.00% to 6.00% is considerably lower than the sector median of 24.1%, raising concerns about its ability to maintain competitive growth in the Technology sector."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "41.22B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "23.55"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "4.89"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "3.92%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "139.53"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "85.45"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($117.61) above the 200-day SMA ($104.14), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.3 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "29.25"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-0.17"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "117.61"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "104.14"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.28",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.14",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.22",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "-0.10"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "PAYX Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (29.3) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$118.08",
    "TARGET 2": "$120.37",
    "TARGET 3": "$123.81",
    "STOP LOSS": "$110.86"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.67%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in PAYX in September 2016 would be worth about $19,348 today, compared with about $35,328 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PAYX today could grow to about $19,663 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $55,850 and a bear case around $6,923. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "PAYX Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $152 for PAYX by 2030 in the base case, from $116 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $78.42. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PAYX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PAYX's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "PAYX simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$89.07",
        "$124",
        "$172"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$83.12",
        "$133",
        "$211"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$80.07",
        "$142",
        "$251"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$78.42",
        "$152",
        "$294"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$77.62",
        "$162",
        "$340"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$77.40",
        "$174",
        "$390"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$77.62",
        "$186",
        "$445"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$78.19",
        "$199",
        "$506"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$79.05",
        "$213",
        "$573"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$80.17",
        "$228",
        "$647"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/skyworks-solutions-swks/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "CSX vs NSC Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/csx-vs-nsc/"
    },
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "PAYX Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$197.3K",
    "Sold": "$25.8M",
    "Insiders": "22",
    "Avg Transaction": "$2.0M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in PAYX",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jul 13, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "RIVERA EFRAIN Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "396.4K",
        "$29.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 18, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "MUCCI MARTIN Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "315.0K",
        "$26.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 2, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "MUCCI MARTIN Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "187.3K",
        "$21.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 27, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "MUCCI MARTIN Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "150.0K",
        "$20.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 16, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "RIVERA EFRAIN Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "216.8K",
        "$18.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 16, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "MUCCI MARTIN Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "147.2K",
        "$16.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 14, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "MUCCI MARTIN Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "132.9K",
        "$16.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 10, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "MUCCI MARTIN Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "97.5K",
        "$14.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 27, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "SCHAEFFER STEPHANIE L Officer",
        "Sell",
        "103.0K",
        "$13.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 12, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "GIBSON JOHN B JR Officer",
        "Sell",
        "130.8K",
        "$11.8M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Paychex+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Paychex Inc. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Paychex Inc. is currently rated as a Hold with a consensus score of 43. While the stock is trading at $115.80, below its 50-day moving average and showing oversold conditions on its RSI, moderate insider selling and slower-than-sector revenue growth temper the bullish case. Wall Street's median price target of $112.00 also suggests limited upside from current levels."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Paychex Inc.'s price target?",
   "answer": "The median analyst price target for Paychex Inc. is $112.00, which is 3.3% below its current trading price of $115.80. This suggests that Wall Street analysts, on average, do not anticipate significant price appreciation in the near term."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks for Paychex Inc. stock?",
   "answer": "Key risks for Paychex Inc. include significant insider selling totaling over $25.8 million, which may indicate management's lack of confidence in future stock performance. Additionally, the company's projected revenue growth is substantially lower than its technology sector peers, raising concerns about its competitive positioning and future expansion."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is Paychex Inc. performing technically?",
   "answer": "Technically, Paychex Inc. is showing bearish signals, trading below its 50-day and 20-day moving averages, with an RSI at 29.3 indicating oversold conditions. The MACD is also negative, reinforcing the current downward momentum. However, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, which could act as a longer-term support level."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Paychex Inc.'s revenue growth outlook?",
   "answer": "Paychex Inc. is projected to achieve revenue growth of approximately 5.00% for the next quarter and 6.00% for the current year. This growth rate is notably lower than the median revenue growth of 24.1% observed among its technology sector peers."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does Paychex Inc. compare to its sector averages?",
   "answer": "Paychex Inc. has a P/E ratio of 23.55, which is below the technology sector median of 34, suggesting it may be undervalued relative to peers. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is 13.4%, slightly above the sector median of 13.4%. However, its revenue growth is significantly lower than the sector's median of 24.1%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Paychex Inc.'s dividend yield?",
   "answer": "Paychex Inc. offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.92%, with a dividend rate of $4.54. This yield is relatively attractive for income-focused investors."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Paychex Inc.'s stock price prediction for 2030?",
   "answer": "According to Monte Carlo simulations, Paychex Inc.'s stock price is projected to be $151.77 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $78.42, and the upside projection is $293.70. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets."
  }
 ],
 "related": {
  "peopleAlsoWatch": [
   {
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    "name": "ServiceNow Inc. NYSE",
    "price": "$132.53",
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