{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/pagaya-technologies-pgy/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/pagaya-technologies-pgy/data.json",
 "title": "Pagaya (PGY) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) stock: Technology, Software - Infrastructure. $1.7B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)",
 "published": "2026-08-04T09:52:04+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-23T03:05:51.595+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-23T07:19:50.467Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "PGY",
  "name": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Technology",
  "industry": "Software - Infrastructure",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://pagaya.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 20.77,
  "previousClose": 20.9,
  "change": -0.13,
  "changePercent": -0.62,
  "open": 21.3,
  "high": 21.6,
  "low": 20.64,
  "volume": 1769218,
  "averageVolume": 2194032,
  "marketCap": 1732754759,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 44.99,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 10.4,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-23T03:05:51.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 14.9787245,
  "eps": 1.41,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 5.37,
  "priceToSales": 1.26763,
  "priceToBook": 2.962132,
  "revenueTtm": 1389959040,
  "grossMargin": 0.4018280325676419,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.19459
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 49.1,
  "macd": 0.05,
  "sma50": 20.25,
  "sma200": 17.19,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 79,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 27,
  "analystTarget": 27,
  "analystCount": 11,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-23T03:05:51.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 20.77,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 3.65,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 20.35,
  "aggressiveEntry": 20.77,
  "stopLoss": 18.93,
  "stopLossPercent": 7,
  "targets": [
   21.37,
   22.39,
   23.41
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 9.66,
    "base": 18.34,
    "upside90th": 34.8
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 6.54,
    "base": 16.19,
    "upside90th": 40.06
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 4.71,
    "base": 14.29,
    "upside90th": 43.36
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 3.5,
    "base": 12.62,
    "upside90th": 45.45
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 2.66,
    "base": 11.14,
    "upside90th": 46.68
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 2.05,
    "base": 9.83,
    "upside90th": 47.25
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 1.59,
    "base": 8.68,
    "upside90th": 47.3
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 1.25,
    "base": 7.66,
    "upside90th": 46.94
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 0.99,
    "base": 6.77,
    "upside90th": 46.26
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 0.79,
    "base": 5.97,
    "upside90th": 45.31
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "PGY Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$21.30",
    "Day Range": "$20.64 to $21.60",
    "Prev Close": "$20.90",
    "Volume": "1.77M",
    "52-Week Range": "$10.40 to $44.99",
    "Market Cap": "$1.73B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-56%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "PGY Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, PGY beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "PGY Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is exhibiting neutral momentum with an RSI of 49.1, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($20.25 and $17.19), suggesting a generally positive trend, though it is currently below its 20-day exponential moving average of $21.11. Key support is observed around the 200-day SMA at $17.19, while resistance may be encountered near the 50-day SMA at $20.25 and the 20-day EMA at $21.11. Trading volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 1.77 million compared to an average of 2.19 million, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders at current levels.",
    "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. exceeded EPS estimates by 48.61% in the quarter to June 2026, reporting $1.07 versus $0.72, leading to a 9.24% stock price increase.",
    "11 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $27.00, representing a 30.0% upside from the current price.",
    "Insiders have sold a net $23.8 million in stock versus $501K in purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal.",
    "The stock is currently trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, suggesting potential short-term downward pressure.",
    "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is expected to see continued growth, with analysts projecting revenue to increase by 13.00% in the current year to $1.5 billion and by 16.00% next year to $1.7 billion. The company's strong profit margins and positive earnings surprises provide a solid foundation for future performance. The median analyst price target of $27.00 suggests a 30.0% upside, indicating confidence in the company's ability to execute its growth strategy. Key upside catalysts could include continued strong earnings beats and successful expansion into new markets, while downside risks involve persistent insider selling and potential competitive pressures within the technology sector."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider selling activity closely, as the current trend indicates a moderate sell signal from management.",
     "The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($20.25 and $17.19), suggesting a generally positive trend, but watch for resistance near the 20-day EMA.",
     "Consider position sizing carefully given the moderate insider selling and the stock's current trading range."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Earnings Beat in Q2 2026",
     "text": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. exceeded EPS estimates by 48.61% in the quarter to June 2026, reporting $1.07 versus $0.72, leading to a 9.24% stock price increase.",
     "source": "Company Earnings Report"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets",
     "text": "11 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating with a median price target of $27.00, representing a 30.0% upside from the current price.",
     "source": "Wall Street Analysts"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling Trend",
     "text": "Insiders have sold a net $23.8 million in stock versus $501K in purchases, indicating a moderate sell signal.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Trading Below 20-Day EMA",
     "text": "The stock is currently trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, suggesting potential short-term downward pressure.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. presents a compelling valuation, trading at a P/E ratio of 14.98, which is significantly below the sector median of 34. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.27 is also lower than the sector average of 7.5, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its revenue. The company boasts a strong profit margin of 9.12% and a return on equity of 19.46%, outperforming the sector average ROE of 13.4%. While its debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34 is slightly above the sector average, the strong profitability and revenue growth of 18.6% suggest a healthy financial footing.",
    "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. recently reported a strong earnings beat for the quarter to June 2026, delivering an actual EPS of $1.07 against an estimated $0.72, a surprise of 48.61%. This positive result was accompanied by a 9.24% increase in stock price. The company has a history of surprising positively on earnings, with a notable 445.45% surprise in the quarter to March 2026.",
    "Insider selling represents a moderate risk, with net sales totaling $23.8 million against $501K in purchases, signaling potential caution from management. Additionally, the stock's current price is below its 20-day EMA, which could indicate short-term downward pressure. While revenue growth is strong, the current quarter's revenue growth estimate is slightly negative (-2.3%), warranting close monitoring."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "1.73B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "14.98"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "1.41"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "44.99"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "10.40"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($20.25) above the 200-day SMA ($17.19), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "49.10"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.05"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "20.25"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "17.19"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.47",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.45",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.42",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.01"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "PGY Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (49.1) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$21.37",
    "TARGET 2": "$22.39",
    "TARGET 3": "$23.41",
    "STOP LOSS": "$18.93"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Limited data: Based on ~1 year of trading history. Patterns may not be statistically significant."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "-5.97%",
    "Average Feb return": "+1.73%",
    "Average Mar return": "-11.84%",
    "Average Apr return": "+1.49%",
    "Average May return": "+16.83%",
    "Average Jun return": "+4.10%",
    "Average Jul return": "+106.69%",
    "Average Aug return": "-7.82%",
    "Average Sep return": "-31.57%",
    "Average Oct return": "-6.08%",
    "Average Nov return": "-8.47%",
    "Average Dec return": "-2.68%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "3.65%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in PGY in April 2021 would be worth about $1,731 today, compared with about $18,588 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in PGY today could grow to about $2,876 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $21,816 and a bear case around $379. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "PGY Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $12.62 for PGY by 2030 in the base case, from $20.77 today (0.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $3.50. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on PGY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using PGY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "PGY simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$9.66",
        "$18.34",
        "$34.80"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$6.54",
        "$16.19",
        "$40.06"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$4.71",
        "$14.29",
        "$43.36"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$3.50",
        "$12.62",
        "$45.45"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$2.66",
        "$11.14",
        "$46.68"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$2.05",
        "$9.83",
        "$47.25"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$1.59",
        "$8.68",
        "$47.30"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$1.25",
        "$7.66",
        "$46.94"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$0.9895",
        "$6.77",
        "$46.26"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$0.7873",
        "$5.97",
        "$45.31"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "PGY Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$501.0K",
    "Sold": "$23.8M",
    "Insiders": "14",
    "Avg Transaction": "$392.5K"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in PGY",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "May 13, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "YULZARI YAHAV HAIM Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "355.7K",
        "$5.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 11, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "PARDO AVITAL Chief Technology Officer",
        "Sell",
        "150.0K",
        "$2.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 11, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "YULZARI YAHAV HAIM Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "150.0K",
        "$2.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 8, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "PARDO AVITAL Chief Technology Officer",
        "Sell",
        "165.5K",
        "$2.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 8, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "YULZARI YAHAV HAIM Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "160.7K",
        "$2.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 12, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "PARDO AVITAL Chief Technology Officer",
        "Sell",
        "116.5K",
        "$1.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 9, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "PERROS EVANGELOS Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "23.8K",
        "$902.4K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 3, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "ROSEN TAMI Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "28.5K",
        "$632.6K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 3, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "ROSEN TAMI Director",
        "Sell",
        "28.2K",
        "$619.4K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 15, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "ROSEN TAMI Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "13.9K",
        "$571.4K"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Pagaya+Technologies+Ltd.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s stock price forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base case of $12.62, with a downside scenario at $3.50 and an upside scenario at $45.45. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 79 out of 100. The median analyst price target of $27.00 suggests a 30.0% upside from the current price of $20.77."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Pagaya Technologies Ltd.?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. include moderate insider selling totaling $23.8 million and the stock trading below its 20-day EMA. Additionally, the current quarter's revenue growth estimate is slightly negative, which warrants close observation."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does Pagaya Technologies Ltd. compare to its sector peers?",
   "answer": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. trades at a P/E ratio of 14.98 and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.27, both significantly lower than the sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively. Its revenue growth of 18.6% also compares favorably to the sector average of 24.1%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s recent earnings performance?",
   "answer": "Pagaya Technologies Ltd. recently reported a strong earnings beat for the quarter to June 2026, with EPS of $1.07 versus an estimate of $0.72, a 48.61% surprise. This follows a pattern of positive earnings surprises."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the technical outlook for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock?",
   "answer": "The technical outlook for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is neutral, with an RSI at 49.1. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($20.25 and $17.19), indicating a generally positive trend, but is currently below its 20-day EMA."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the consensus analyst rating for Pagaya Technologies Ltd.?",
   "answer": "The consensus analyst rating for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 'Buy', supported by 11 analysts. There are no 'Hold', 'Sell', or 'Strong Sell' ratings, and 2 analysts rate it as 'Strong Buy'."
  }
 ],
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   {
    "ticker": "INTU",
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