{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/orly-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/orly-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) stock: Consumer Cyclical, Auto Parts. $69.4B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "O&#039;Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)",
 "published": "2026-07-23T09:39:38+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-23T02:05:54.388+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-23T08:07:41.394Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ORLY",
  "name": "O'Reilly Automotive Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Auto Parts",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.oreillyauto.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 85.82,
  "previousClose": 82.88,
  "change": 2.94,
  "changePercent": 3.55,
  "open": 83.93,
  "high": 87.019997,
  "low": 83.93,
  "volume": 9515688,
  "averageVolume": 7705219,
  "marketCap": 69425015169,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 108.72,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 82.59,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-23T02:05:54.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 26.31111,
  "eps": 3.15,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 0.515,
  "priceToSales": 3.6099846,
  "priceToBook": -38.57339882354867,
  "revenueTtm": 18572562432,
  "grossMargin": 0.5144589762946256,
  "returnOnEquity": -3.325083316739853
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 43.37,
  "macd": -1.33,
  "sma50": 88.37,
  "sma200": 91.36,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 55,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 110,
  "analystTarget": 110,
  "analystCount": 28,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-23T02:05:54.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 85.82,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.39,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 84.96,
  "aggressiveEntry": 85.82,
  "stopLoss": 80.27,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.52,
  "targets": [
   87.51,
   89.21,
   91.76
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 67.57,
    "base": 95.68,
    "upside90th": 135.47
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 65.23,
    "base": 106.67,
    "upside90th": 174.43
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 65.11,
    "base": 118.92,
    "upside90th": 217.19
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 66.13,
    "base": 132.58,
    "upside90th": 265.79
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 67.91,
    "base": 147.8,
    "upside90th": 321.67
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 70.3,
    "base": 164.78,
    "upside90th": 386.25
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 73.2,
    "base": 183.71,
    "upside90th": 461.03
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 76.59,
    "base": 204.81,
    "upside90th": 547.69
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 80.44,
    "base": 228.33,
    "upside90th": 648.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 84.76,
    "base": 254.55,
    "upside90th": 764.53
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ORLY Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$83.93",
    "Day Range": "$83.93 to $87.02",
    "Prev Close": "$82.88",
    "Volume": "9.52M",
    "52-Week Range": "$82.59 to $108.72",
    "Market Cap": "$69.43B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+26%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ORLY Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ORLY beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ORLY Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Volume has increased by 23.5% above its average, signaling heightened trading activity as O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($88.37 and $91.36). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43.37, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD is negative at -1.33, suggesting a bearish trend. The current price of $85.82 is below the 50-day SMA of $88.37 and the 200-day SMA of $91.36, positioning these averages as resistance. The chart structure suggests a near-term bearish bias, with the price action failing to break above key technical levels. The neutral RSI and negative MACD further support this view. Investors should watch for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA as a potential signal of a trend reversal, while sustained trading below these averages could lead to further downside pressure.",
    "A sustained move above the 50-day SMA ($88.37) and subsequently the 200-day SMA ($91.36) would signal a potential reversal of the current bearish technical trend.",
    "Ongoing net selling by insiders, particularly officers, totaling $27.5 million, could indicate a lack of confidence and potentially weigh on future price performance.",
    "Future earnings reports that significantly beat analyst estimates could provide a catalyst for upward price movement, especially if accompanied by strong forward guidance.",
    "The overall performance of the Consumer Cyclical sector and the auto parts industry will influence O'Reilly Automotive's stock price, irrespective of company-specific news.",
    "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory over the next 6-12 months, with analysts forecasting revenue growth of 7.00% for the current year and 11.3% for the next. The median analyst price target of $110.00 suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current price, indicating a bullish long-term view despite current technical challenges. The company's strong profit margins and minimal debt provide a stable foundation for this outlook. Potential catalysts for upside include a successful re-establishment of trading above key moving averages and continued market share gains in the resilient auto parts sector. Conversely, downside risks include persistent insider selling, a failure to break out of the current technical downtrend, and increased competition within the industry. Any significant deterioration in the company's negative return on equity could also weigh on investor sentiment."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s ability to reclaim its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as sustained trading below these levels indicates bearish momentum.",
     "Given the moderate insider selling, investors should pay close attention to any future insider transactions for further clues on management's confidence.",
     "Consider the company's premium valuation relative to sector peers and its negative return on equity as key factors in assessing risk-reward."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Reclaiming Key Moving Averages",
     "text": "A sustained move above the 50-day SMA ($88.37) and subsequently the 200-day SMA ($91.36) would signal a potential reversal of the current bearish technical trend.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Continued Insider Selling Pressure",
     "text": "Ongoing net selling by insiders, particularly officers, totaling $27.5 million, could indicate a lack of confidence and potentially weigh on future price performance.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Earnings Surprises",
     "text": "Future earnings reports that significantly beat analyst estimates could provide a catalyst for upward price movement, especially if accompanied by strong forward guidance.",
     "source": "Earnings Reports"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Sector Performance",
     "text": "The overall performance of the Consumer Cyclical sector and the auto parts industry will influence O'Reilly Automotive's stock price, irrespective of company-specific news.",
     "source": "Sector Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) presents a mixed valuation picture, with a P/E ratio of 26.31, which is above the sector median of 20.8, suggesting it trades at a premium. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.61, also higher than the sector average of 1.9. The company's profit margin is a healthy 14.27%, and its operating margin is 20.15%, indicating strong operational efficiency. Despite the premium valuation, O'Reilly Automotive's balance sheet shows a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.05, indicating minimal leverage and a strong financial position. The company's return on equity is reported as -332.51%, which is significantly below the sector average of 12.4, suggesting potential issues with profitability relative to shareholder equity. This discrepancy warrants further investigation into the drivers of the negative ROE.",
    "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) reported mixed results in its most recent quarters. The quarter to June 2026 saw actual EPS of $0.86, matching the estimate with no surprise, and resulted in a price decrease of 3.61%. However, the prior quarter to March 2026 showed a slight beat with EPS of $0.72 against an estimate of $0.70, leading to a positive price reaction of 8.41%. The company's revenue growth is projected to be around 6.00% to 7.00% for the current and next year, indicating steady expansion.",
    "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) faces moderate risks including a premium valuation relative to its sector peers and a negative return on equity. Recent insider activity indicates a net selling trend, with significant sales by officers, which could signal a lack of near-term confidence. Also, the stock is currently trading below its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting potential for further technical downside."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "69.43B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "26.31"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "3.15"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "108.72"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "82.59"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $88.37, 200-day: $91.36), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "43.37"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.33"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "88.37"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "91.36"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.13",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.02",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "-0.12",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.09"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ORLY Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (43.4) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$87.51",
    "TARGET 2": "$89.21",
    "TARGET 3": "$91.76",
    "STOP LOSS": "$80.27"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+0.12%",
    "Average Feb return": "+0.65%",
    "Average Mar return": "+1.03%",
    "Average Apr return": "+3.74%",
    "Average May return": "-0.47%",
    "Average Jun return": "+1.76%",
    "Average Jul return": "+4.71%",
    "Average Aug return": "+0.67%",
    "Average Sep return": "+1.53%",
    "Average Oct return": "+0.10%",
    "Average Nov return": "+5.71%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.66%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.39%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ORLY in September 2016 would be worth about $45,686 today, compared with about $35,806 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ORLY today could grow to about $29,661 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $89,086 and a bear case around $9,876. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ORLY Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $133 for ORLY by 2030 in the base case, from $85.82 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $66.13. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ORLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ORLY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ORLY simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$67.57",
        "$95.68",
        "$135"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$65.23",
        "$107",
        "$174"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$65.11",
        "$119",
        "$217"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$66.13",
        "$133",
        "$266"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$67.91",
        "$148",
        "$322"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$70.30",
        "$165",
        "$386"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$73.20",
        "$184",
        "$461"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$76.59",
        "$205",
        "$548"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$80.44",
        "$228",
        "$648"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$84.76",
        "$255",
        "$765"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/ionq-vs-rgti/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ORLY Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$27.5M",
    "Insiders": "19",
    "Avg Transaction": "$1.4M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ORLY",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Mar 4, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "JOHNSON GREGORY DALE Officer",
        "Sell",
        "32.3K",
        "$34.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 6, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "O'REILLY DAVID E Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "55.0K",
        "$30.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 14, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "O'REILLY DAVID E Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "23.0K",
        "$25.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 3, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "O'REILLY DAVID E Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "27.0K",
        "$25.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 1, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "O'REILLY DAVID E Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "25.0K",
        "$20.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 30, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "HENSLEE GREGORY L Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "18.3K",
        "$20.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 17, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "O'REILLY DAVID E Chairman of the Board",
        "Sell",
        "37.4K",
        "$20.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 14, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "JOHNSON GREGORY DALE Officer",
        "Sell",
        "18.7K",
        "$19.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 2, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "MCFALL THOMAS G Officer",
        "Sell",
        "20.8K",
        "$19.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 31, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "JOHNSON GREGORY DALE Director",
        "Sell",
        "15.4K",
        "$17.5M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&amp;company=O%27Reilly+Automotive+Inc.&amp;type=4&amp;dateb=&amp;owner=include&amp;count=40&amp;search_text=&amp;action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is currently rated as a Hold with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a median price target of $110.00, offering a 28.2% upside, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and exhibits moderate insider selling, suggesting caution is warranted."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s fair value?",
   "answer": "O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s fair value is estimated at $110.00, based on a combination of analyst price targets and internal valuation models. This suggests a potential upside of 28.2% from the current price of $85.82."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock?",
   "answer": "Key risks for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) include its premium valuation compared to sector averages, a negative return on equity, and recent insider selling activity. Additionally, the stock's current technical position below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($88.37 and $91.36) presents near-term downside risk."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. performing financially?",
   "answer": "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) demonstrates strong operational efficiency with a profit margin of 14.27% and an operating margin of 20.15%. Revenue growth is projected at 8.1% for the current period. However, the company's return on equity is significantly negative at -332.51%, which is a notable concern."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the outlook for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. in the next year?",
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