{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/odfl-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/odfl-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Old Dominion (ODFL) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) stock: Industrials, Trucking. $37.5B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)",
 "published": "2026-07-10T09:42:49+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T20:26:03.995+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T21:01:03.848Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ODFL",
  "name": "Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Industrials",
  "industry": "Trucking",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.odfl.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 179.82,
  "previousClose": 180.55,
  "change": -0.74,
  "changePercent": -0.41,
  "open": 182.16,
  "high": 183.41,
  "low": 177.63,
  "volume": 76821,
  "averageVolume": 1846902,
  "marketCap": 37548673495,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 252.029999,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 126.010002,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T20:26:01.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 35.960476,
  "eps": 5.06,
  "dividendYield": 0.006451074715680004,
  "beta": 1.165,
  "priceToSales": 6.754461,
  "priceToBook": 8.301853,
  "revenueTtm": 5602506752,
  "grossMargin": 0.362602670263397,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.24818
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 13.46,
  "macd": -8.94,
  "sma50": 211.75,
  "sma200": 197.6,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 57,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 232.5,
  "analystTarget": 232.5,
  "analystCount": 24,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T20:26:01.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 179.815,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.85,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 178.02,
  "aggressiveEntry": 179.82,
  "stopLoss": 168.46,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.37,
  "targets": [
   183.36,
   186.92,
   192.26
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 133.5,
    "base": 204.67,
    "upside90th": 313.78
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 127.31,
    "base": 232.96,
    "upside90th": 426.3
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 126.5,
    "base": 265.16,
    "upside90th": 555.8
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 128.41,
    "base": 301.81,
    "upside90th": 709.36
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 132.13,
    "base": 343.53,
    "upside90th": 893.1
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 137.29,
    "base": 391.01,
    "upside90th": 1113.61
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 143.7,
    "base": 445.05,
    "upside90th": 1378.41
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 151.28,
    "base": 506.57,
    "upside90th": 1696.3
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 160.02,
    "base": 576.59,
    "upside90th": 2077.63
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 169.93,
    "base": 656.29,
    "upside90th": 2534.59
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ODFL Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$182.16",
    "Day Range": "$177.63 to $183.41",
    "Prev Close": "$180.55",
    "Volume": "76.8K",
    "52-Week Range": "$126.01 to $252.03",
    "Market Cap": "$37.55B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (6% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ODFL Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ODFL beat estimates 5 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ODFL Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is currently trading below both its 50-day SMA ($211.75) and 200-day SMA ($197.60), indicating a bearish trend. The stock's RSI is significantly oversold at 13.46, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. MACD is also negative at -8.94, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the limited trading history and current downward trajectory, while resistance lies at the aforementioned moving averages. Volume has been significantly below average recently, with the latest volume at 76,821 compared to a daily average of over 1.8 million, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the current price action.",
    "Insiders have sold over $26.2 million worth of ODFL stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future headwinds.",
    "ODFL is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.75 and $197.60), with a significantly oversold RSI of 13.46, suggesting continued downward pressure is possible despite the oversold condition.",
    "Old Dominion Freight Line has a history of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, most recently with a 9.8% surprise in the July 29, 2026 quarter, which could provide support.",
    "The median analyst target price suggests a potential 29.3% upside from the current price, offering a target for potential recovery but indicating limited immediate gains.",
    "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) faces a challenging near-term outlook, with its stock price currently below key technical indicators and exhibiting bearish momentum. The median analyst price target of $232.50 suggests a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of $179.82, but this is tempered by a 'Hold' consensus rating. The company's consistent earnings beats and positive revenue growth provide a fundamental floor, but significant insider selling and the prevailing bearish technicals create headwinds. Future performance will likely depend on a shift in market sentiment and a potential technical bounce from oversold levels. Upside catalysts could include stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings or positive commentary on freight demand. Conversely, continued insider selling, a failure to break above resistance levels, or a slowdown in freight volumes could push the stock lower, potentially testing the lower end of analyst targets and long-range projections."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Given the oversold RSI and the stock trading below key moving averages, consider waiting for confirmation of a technical bounce before initiating new positions.",
     "Insider selling totaling over $26.2 million warrants close monitoring; a shift to net buying activity would be a significant bullish signal.",
     "The median analyst price target of $232.50 suggests limited upside from current levels, reinforcing a cautious approach to new investment."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Significant Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold over $26.2 million worth of ODFL stock with no reported purchases, indicating a lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future headwinds.",
     "source": "Insider Trading Data"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Trend",
     "text": "ODFL is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.75 and $197.60), with a significantly oversold RSI of 13.46, suggesting continued downward pressure is possible despite the oversold condition.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Consistent Earnings Beats",
     "text": "Old Dominion Freight Line has a history of exceeding analyst EPS estimates, most recently with a 9.8% surprise in the July 29, 2026 quarter, which could provide support.",
     "source": "Earnings Reports"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Analyst Median Price Target of $232.50",
     "text": "The median analyst target price suggests a potential 29.3% upside from the current price, offering a target for potential recovery but indicating limited immediate gains.",
     "source": "Wall Street Analysts"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) exhibits a P/E ratio of 35.96, which is slightly above the sector median of 34.0, suggesting a modest premium valuation. The company's revenue growth of 10.4% is in line with the sector average of 11.7%. The company's consistent earnings beats and positive revenue trajectory indicate operational strength. The current price action, however, does not reflect this fundamental strength, trading at a discount to its historical averages and sector peers on a technical basis.",
    "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has demonstrated a consistent ability to beat earnings estimates, with the most recent quarter on July 29, 2026, showing an EPS of $1.68 against an estimate of $1.53, a 9.8% surprise. Prior quarters also show positive surprises, indicating reliable performance. Revenue growth remains positive, with current estimates projecting 10.00% year-over-year growth for the current quarter. This pattern of exceeding expectations suggests a resilient business model, though the stock price reaction to these beats has been mixed, with the latest quarter seeing a -4.63% price change.",
    "The primary risks for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) include insider selling totaling over $26.2 million, signaling a lack of confidence from management, and significantly oversold technical conditions that, while potentially leading to a bounce, also indicate significant bearish sentiment. Also, the stock is trading below key long-term moving averages, suggesting a prevailing downtrend that could continue if broader economic concerns or competitive pressures intensify."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "37.55B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "35.96"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "5.06"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.6395%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "252.03"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "126.01"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($211.75) above the 200-day SMA ($197.60), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 13.5 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "13.46"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-8.94"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "211.75"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "197.60"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.47",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.38",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "-0.05",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.02"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ODFL Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (13.5) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$183.36",
    "TARGET 2": "$186.92",
    "TARGET 3": "$192.26",
    "STOP LOSS": "$168.46"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+4.26%",
    "Average Feb return": "+2.72%",
    "Average Mar return": "-1.51%",
    "Average Apr return": "+0.18%",
    "Average May return": "+2.81%",
    "Average Jun return": "+2.48%",
    "Average Jul return": "+5.56%",
    "Average Aug return": "+2.04%",
    "Average Sep return": "-1.69%",
    "Average Oct return": "+3.55%",
    "Average Nov return": "+5.89%",
    "Average Dec return": "-2.80%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.85%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ODFL in September 2016 would be worth about $78,820 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ODFL today could grow to about $36,498 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $140,956 and a bear case around $9,450. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ODFL Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $302 for ODFL by 2030 in the base case, from $180 today (1.7x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $128. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ODFL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ODFL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ODFL simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$134",
        "$205",
        "$314"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$127",
        "$233",
        "$426"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$127",
        "$265",
        "$556"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$128",
        "$302",
        "$709"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$132",
        "$344",
        "$893"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$137",
        "$391",
        "$1,114"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$144",
        "$445",
        "$1,378"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$151",
        "$507",
        "$1,696"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$160",
        "$577",
        "$2,078"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$170",
        "$656",
        "$2,535"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/btc-vs-eth/"
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ODFL Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$26.2M",
    "Insiders": "22",
    "Avg Transaction": "$3.7M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ODFL",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Nov 10, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "38.5K",
        "$15.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 23, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "34.0K",
        "$15.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 19, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "42.5K",
        "$15.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 6, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "60.0K",
        "$13.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 3, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "35.0K",
        "$10.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 19, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "52.0K",
        "$10.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 11, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "32.0K",
        "$10.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 1, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON EARL E Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "56.4K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 16, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "20.0K",
        "$7.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 26, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "CONGDON DAVID S Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "30.0K",
        "$6.0M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&amp;company=Old+Dominion+Freight+Line%2C+Inc.&amp;type=4&amp;dateb=&amp;owner=include&amp;count=40&amp;search_text=&amp;action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is Old Dominion Freight Line's stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Old Dominion Freight Line's (ODFL) stock price is projected to be $301.81 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $128.41, and the upside projection is $709.36. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is Old Dominion Freight Line stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is currently rated 'Hold' by Wall Street analysts with a consensus score of 57. While the stock is oversold technically, insider selling and a 'Hold' consensus suggest caution is warranted."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current analyst consensus for ODFL stock?",
   "answer": "The current Wall Street consensus for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is 'Hold', with 11 out of 24 analysts rating it as such. The overall consensus score is 57 out of 100."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Old Dominion Freight Line?",
   "answer": "Significant insider selling, totaling over $26.2 million, and the stock trading below key moving averages are major risks for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). These factors suggest potential downward pressure on the stock price."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is Old Dominion Freight Line performing in terms of earnings?",
   "answer": "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with its latest quarterly report showing a 9.8% EPS surprise. Revenue growth also remains positive, indicating operational resilience."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the technical outlook for ODFL stock?",
   "answer": "Technically, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is in a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($211.75 and $197.60). However, the RSI is significantly oversold at 13.46, which could signal a potential short-term reversal."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does ODFL's valuation compare to its sector peers?",
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      "text": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Old Dominion Freight Line's (ODFL) stock price is projected to be $301.81 in 2030 under a base case scenario. The downside projection is $128.41, and the upside projection is $709.36. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees."
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      "text": "Significant insider selling, totaling over $26.2 million, and the stock trading below key moving averages are major risks for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). These factors suggest potential downward pressure on the stock price."
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      "text": "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with its latest quarterly report showing a 9.8% EPS surprise. Revenue growth also remains positive, indicating operational resilience."
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      "text": "Technically, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is in a bearish trend, trading below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. However, the RSI is significantly oversold at 13.46, which could signal a potential short-term reversal."
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      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has a P/E ratio of 35.96, which is slightly higher than the sector median of 34.0 for Industrials. This suggests the stock is trading at a modest premium compared to its peers."
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}