{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/novavax-nvax/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/novavax-nvax/data.json",
 "title": "Novavax (NVAX) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "NVAX stock forecast and price target 2026: is Novavax a buy? The median analyst target is $16. Topped estimates in 6 of 7 reports.",
 "headline": "Novavax Inc. (NVAX)",
 "published": "2026-11-09T18:21:30+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-11-09T18:21:31.004+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-11-11T13:24:39.976Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by Jacob Bakshi, Senior Market Strategist; prices delayed by up to a minute.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "NVAX",
  "name": "Novavax Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Healthcare",
  "industry": "Biotechnology",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.novavax.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 10.2,
  "previousClose": 10.89,
  "change": -0.69,
  "changePercent": -6.34,
  "open": 10.61,
  "high": 10.71,
  "low": 10.07,
  "volume": 12254908,
  "averageVolume": 6043061,
  "marketCap": 1683091891,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 13.39,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 6.2,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-11-10T23:41:27.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": -19.62,
  "eps": -0.52,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 2.72,
  "priceToSales": 4.112709,
  "priceToBook": -8.802271382854329,
  "revenueTtm": 411648992,
  "grossMargin": 0.7487389325902148,
  "returnOnEquity": -3.4465100623860105
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 47.7,
  "macd": -0.1314,
  "sma50": 10.61,
  "sma200": 9.34,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 44,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 16,
  "analystCount": 9,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-10T23:41:27.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 10.2,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 7.17,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 5.26,
    "base": 9.98,
    "upside90th": 18.93
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 3.94,
    "base": 9.76,
    "upside90th": 24.15
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 3.14,
    "base": 9.54,
    "upside90th": 28.95
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 2.59,
    "base": 9.33,
    "upside90th": 33.62
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 6,
 "atAGlance": {
  "asOf": "November 10, 2026",
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 44,
  "evidence": [
   {
    "label": "Trend",
    "text": "Mixed: the price is above its 200-day but below its 50-day moving average ($9.34 and $10.61)."
   },
   {
    "label": "Earnings",
    "text": "NVAX beat estimates in 6 of its last 7 quarters, yet fell in the first session after 3 of those beats."
   }
  ]
 },
 "figures": {
  "asOf": "November 10, 2026",
  "earningsReaction": {
   "quarters": 7,
   "beats": 6,
   "fellFirstSessionAfterBeat": 3,
   "latestReport": "Nov 5, 2026",
   "latestSurprisePercent": 45.71,
   "latestFirstSessionMovePercent": 10.22
  },
  "insiders": null,
  "drawdown": {
   "years": 10,
   "worstFallPercent": -98.7,
   "peak": "February 2021",
   "trough": "April 2024",
   "recoveredBy": null,
   "recoveryMonths": null,
   "belowThatPeakNowPercent": -96.58,
   "fromHighNowPercent": -96.58,
   "oneYearHoldsPositivePercent": 53,
   "dividendsReinvested": false
  },
  "seasonality": {
   "years": 10,
   "bestMonth": {
    "month": "May",
    "averagePercent": 36.67,
    "upYearsPercent": 60
   },
   "worstMonth": {
    "month": "Dec",
    "averagePercent": -10.34,
    "upYearsPercent": 22
   }
  },
  "correlations": null,
  "analystTargets": {
   "analysts": 9,
   "low": 7,
   "median": 16,
   "high": 25,
   "mean": 14.44,
   "buy": 5,
   "hold": 1,
   "sell": 3
  },
  "dividend": null,
  "simulation": {
   "year": 2030,
   "base": 9.33,
   "percentile10": 2.59,
   "percentile90": 33.62,
   "note": "Monte Carlo simulation outcomes, not price targets"
  }
 },
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "ch-overview",
   "title": "NVAX stock today, November 11, 2026: price, news and analyst targets",
   "text": [
    "As of November 10, 2026, Novavax Inc. (NVAX) trades at $10.20. Wall Street's median 12-month price target is $16.00 across 9 analysts, 56.9% above the price. CleaRank rates it Hold with a score of 44/100.",
    "Novavax's stock fell 6.34% in the latest session to $10.20, on volume 102.8% above its average, and it now sits 3.84% below its 50-day average while holding above its 200-day average. The move comes after a quarter in which the company beat analysts' loss estimate and the shares rose 10.22% in the next session.",
    "The shares rose 10.22% in the first session after the November 5, 2026 report, when Novavax posted EPS of -$0.19 against an analyst estimate of -$0.35, a beat of 45.71%. That was the company's second straight beat and its loss was narrower than expected. The stock has since given back ground, falling 6.34% in the latest session, on volume 102.8% above average. Over one month the shares are down 20.00%, while over one year they are up 43.46%.",
    "Novavax has beaten the EPS estimate in six of its last seven reports, but the price reaction has been mixed: in three of those six beats the shares closed lower in the first session. The May 6, 2026 beat was the largest, at 75.00%, yet the stock fell 1.39% the next day. A beat tells investors the loss came in smaller than the forecast, not that the business is growing. Analysts expect fiscal 2026 EPS of $0.05 and revenue of $466.4M, which would be a 58.5% revenue decline, so the forecasts themselves show a shrinking top line.",
    "Five of nine analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, one rates it Hold and three rate it Sell. B. Riley Securities kept its Buy rating on November 6, 2026, while Citigroup kept its Sell rating on October 15, 2026. Three months ago the Buy count was also five of nine, so the split has not shifted much. CleaRank's rating of Hold, at 44/100, is more cautious than the Buy consensus, mainly because valuation and growth weigh against the stock.",
    "CleaRank score 44/100 (Hold). 8 of 17 checks pass: trend 3 of 4, momentum 1 of 3, valuation and quality 1 of 3, analysts 2 of 3, track record 1 of 4.",
    "Novavax Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing vaccines that address serious infectious diseases. Novavax Inc. uses a proprietary recombinant protein platform paired with its Matrix-M adjuvant technology to support immune responses across its vaccine portfolio. Its current products and programs include COVID-19 vaccines marketed under the Nuvaxovid brand and the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, along with research efforts aimed at additional infectious disease targets."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-news",
   "title": "NVAX stock news",
   "text": [
    "November 5, 2026·Earnings report",
    "The November 5, 2026 report showed EPS of -$0.19 against a -$0.35 estimate, and the shares rose 10.22% the next session. It shows the company is beating forecasts on costs or revenue timing, which supports the near-term case.",
    "November 6, 2026·B. Riley Securities",
    "B. Riley Securities kept its Buy rating on November 6, 2026, the day after the earnings report. It adds to the five Buy ratings among nine analysts.",
    "October 15, 2026·Citigroup",
    "Citigroup kept its Sell rating on October 15, 2026. It is one of three Sell ratings, and a reminder that a sizable minority of analysts remain skeptical of the shares.",
    "BTIG kept its Buy rating on June 11, 2026, an older signal that remains part of the Buy group of analysts."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Earnings beat and post-report rally November 5, 2026·Earnings report The November 5, 2026 report showed EPS of -$0.19 against a -$0.35 estimate, and the shares rose 10.22% the next session. It shows the company is beating forecasts on costs or revenue timing, which supports the near-term case.",
     "B. Riley keeps Buy rating November 6, 2026·B. Riley Securities B. Riley Securities kept its Buy rating on November 6, 2026, the day after the earnings report. It adds to the five Buy ratings among nine analysts.",
     "Citigroup keeps Sell rating October 15, 2026·Citigroup Citigroup kept its Sell rating on October 15, 2026. It is one of three Sell ratings, and a reminder that a sizable minority of analysts remain skeptical of the shares.",
     "BTIG keeps Buy rating June 11, 2026·BTIG BTIG kept its Buy rating on June 11, 2026, an older signal that remains part of the Buy group of analysts."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-street",
   "title": "NVAX price target 2026",
   "text": [
    "The base case is that NVAX keeps trading between its 200-day average and its 50-day average while investors wait for evidence that the beat on November 5, 2026 is part of a lasting improvement. Analysts' full-year 2026 EPS estimate of $0.05 implies a sharp swing from the reported loss, and the 2027 estimate of -$0.26 shows losses are expected to continue. Conditions that would improve the picture include the price reclaiming the 50-day average and holding it, and revenue growth returning. Conditions that would worsen it include a close below the 200-day average, which has not yet happened, and further estimate cuts. The median analyst target is $16.00, with a range from $7.00 to $25.00, so the spread of views is wide."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent analyst rating actions on NVAX",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Firm",
      "Action",
      "Rating"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Nov 6, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "B. Riley Securities",
        "Reiterates",
        "Buy"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 15, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Citigroup",
        "Maintains",
        "Sell"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 11, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "BTIG",
        "Reiterates",
        "Buy"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-levels",
   "title": "NVAX support and resistance levels",
   "text": [
    "Support sits first at the 200-day simple moving average of $9.34, which the price has held above. Below it, the 52-week low of $6.20 is the next floor and marks the bottom of the past year's range. Resistance begins at the 20-day exponential moving average of $10.48, a short-term trend line the price has just dropped below. Next is the 50-day simple moving average at $10.61, which is the level that matters most for the medium-term trend. Further above, the 52-week high of $13.39 is the ceiling of the past year."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "NVAX support and resistance levels",
     "columns": [
      "Level",
      "What it is",
      "Price",
      "From the price"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Resistance 3",
       "cells": [
        "52-week high",
        "$13.39",
        "+31.3%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Resistance 2",
       "cells": [
        "50-day moving average",
        "$10.61",
        "+4.0%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Resistance 1",
       "cells": [
        "20-day exponential average",
        "$10.48",
        "+2.8%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Price",
       "cells": [
        "November 10, 2026",
        "$10.20",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 1",
       "cells": [
        "200-day moving average",
        "$9.34",
        "-8.4%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 2",
       "cells": [
        "52-week low",
        "$6.20",
        "-39.2%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "RSI Neutral",
     "SMA cross Bullish",
     "Price vs SMA Bearish",
     "MACD Bearish"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-price",
   "title": "NVAX stock price and trading"
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-fundamentals",
   "title": "NVAX fundamentals and valuation",
   "text": [
    "Price to sales vs sector: On price-to-sales, the yardstick used here in place of P/E, NVAX trades at 4.11x, +21% versus the sector median of 3.40x.",
    "Return vs XLV: Since May 29, 2025, NVAX has gained 51.5% against a gain of 42.3% for XLV.",
    "Revenue growth: Revenue grew 64.7% in FY2025 to $1.1B, from $682M a year earlier.",
    "Profit margin: The net margin was 39.2% in FY2025, up from -27.5% the year before.",
    "Profitable: NVAX earned $440M in FY2025.",
    "Earnings record: NVAX beat the analyst estimate in 6 of the 7 reports in our data.",
    "Market reaction: The stock fell in the first session after 3 of those 6 beats, so a beat has not been enough on its own."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "NVAX earnings surprises and the stock's reaction",
     "columns": [
      "Report",
      "Estimate",
      "Actual",
      "Surprise",
      "First sessionDay 1",
      "5 sessionsDay 5"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Nov 5, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "-$0.35",
        "-$0.19",
        "+45.71%",
        "+10.22%",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 6, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "-$0.38",
        "-$0.32",
        "+15.79%",
        "+2.71%",
        "+5.17%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 6, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "-$0.24",
        "-$0.06",
        "+75.00%",
        "-1.39%",
        "-1.39%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 6, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "-$1.17",
        "-$1.25",
        "-6.84%",
        "-1.98%",
        "-6.98%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 6, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "-$0.08",
        "$0.62",
        "+875.00%",
        "+15.83%",
        "+16.75%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 8, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "$1.41",
        "$2.93",
        "+107.80%",
        "-10.21%",
        "-5.56%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 12, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "-$0.78",
        "-$0.76",
        "+2.56%",
        "-8.16%",
        "-5.44%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-history",
   "title": "NVAX price history and drawdowns",
   "text": [
    "Against the market: NVAX trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $4,614.41 against $40,115.",
    "A $10,000 investment in NVAX in December 2016 would be worth about $4,614 today, compared with about $40,115 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark with its dividends reinvested."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-scenarios",
   "title": "NVAX stock price prediction 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $9.33 for NVAX by 2030 in the base case, from $10.20 today (0.9x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $2.59. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on NVAX's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "NVAX simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "10th percentile",
      "Base case",
      "90th percentile",
      "range base today"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$5.26",
        "$9.98",
        "$18.93",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$3.94",
        "$9.76",
        "$24.15",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$3.14",
        "$9.54",
        "$28.95",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$2.59",
        "$9.33",
        "$33.62",
        ""
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-insiders",
   "title": "NVAX insider trading",
   "text": [
    "Insider trading: No insider bought NVAX shares on the open market in the last 18 months."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Insider transactions in NVAX",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jun 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Gregg H Alton Director",
        "Grant",
        "18.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Richard H Douglas Director",
        "Grant",
        "18.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Rachel K King Director",
        "Grant",
        "18.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Margaret G McGlynn Director",
        "Grant",
        "18.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "David M Mott Director",
        "Grant",
        "18.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Richard J. Rodgers Director",
        "Grant",
        "18.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 24, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Charles W. Newton Director",
        "Grant",
        "9.5K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 10, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "John W. Shiver, PH.D. Director",
        "Grant",
        "7.9K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 6, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "James Patrick Kelly Chief Financial Officer",
        "Grant",
        "12.2K",
        "-"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 3, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Mark J Casey Officer",
        "Grant",
        "37.5K",
        "-"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-faq",
   "title": "NVAX stock forecast: questions people ask",
   "text": [
    "How these figures are computed, and where the data comes from: CleaRank methodology."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-related",
   "title": "Compare NVAX with similar assets",
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 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the NVAX stock forecast?",
   "answer": "The median 12-month analyst price target is $16.00, which is 56.9% above the price of $10.20. Analyst targets run from $7.00 to $25.00 across nine analysts. The nearest level below the price is the 200-day simple moving average at $9.34, and the nearest level above it is the 20-day exponential moving average at $10.48."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the NVAX price target?",
   "answer": "The median 12-month analyst target is $16.00, with the lowest at $7.00 and the highest at $25.00. The consensus rating is Buy, with five of nine analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy. The price of $10.20 sits below the median target."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is NVAX a buy or sell today?",
   "answer": "Analysts rate the stock Buy on consensus, with five of nine rating it Buy or Strong Buy, one Hold and three Sell or Strong Sell. CleaRank's own rating is Hold, with a score of 44/100. The price is 3.84% below its 50-day average and 9.21% above its 200-day average, which is a mixed trend."
  },
  {
   "question": "Why did NVAX rise after its latest earnings report?",
   "answer": "The shares rose 10.22% in the first session after the November 5, 2026 report. Novavax reported EPS of -$0.19 against an estimate of -$0.35, a beat of 45.71%."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has NVAX performed over the past year?",
   "answer": "Over the past year the stock is up 43.46%, although it is down 20.00% over the past month. The shares trade 23.82% below their 52-week high of $13.39 and 64.52% above the 52-week low of $6.20."
  },
  {
   "question": "Does NVAX pay a dividend?",
   "answer": "No dividend is reported for Novavax. Its net profit margin is -18.64%, and the reported GAAP EPS over the last twelve months is -$0.52, so the company is not currently returning cash to shareholders."
  }
 ],
 "related": {
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    "ticker": "ILMN",
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    "name": "Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc. NYSE",
    "price": "$107.32",
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