{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mp-materials-mp/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/mp-materials-mp/data.json",
 "title": "MP Materials Corp. (MP) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Is MP Materials (MP) a Buy or Sell today? Get the AI price target, rare earth magnet growth outlook and key technical levels. Updated daily.",
 "headline": "MP Materials Corp. (MP)",
 "published": "2026-08-20T09:19:47+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T13:16:55.699+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:40:31.780Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "MP",
  "name": "MP Materials Corp.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Basic Materials",
  "industry": "Other Industrial Metals & Mining",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://mpmaterials.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 51.32,
  "previousClose": 54.3,
  "change": -2.98,
  "changePercent": -5.49,
  "open": 53.33,
  "high": 53.726,
  "low": 51.12,
  "volume": 6852000,
  "averageVolume": 4726090,
  "marketCap": 9140173496,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 100.251,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 37.81,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T13:16:54.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": -155.52,
  "eps": -0.33,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 1.951,
  "priceToSales": 23.31923,
  "priceToBook": 4.9577003,
  "revenueTtm": 416246016,
  "grossMargin": 0.007549082864780164,
  "returnOnEquity": -0.03585
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 42.36,
  "macd": 0.42,
  "sma50": 51.31,
  "sma200": 57.56,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 79,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 75,
  "analystTarget": 75,
  "analystCount": 18,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T13:16:54.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 51.32,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 3.99,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 50.29,
  "aggressiveEntry": 51.32,
  "stopLoss": 46.45,
  "stopLossPercent": 7.65,
  "targets": [
   52.81,
   55.32,
   57.84
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 31.3,
    "base": 59.4,
    "upside90th": 112.75
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 27.78,
    "base": 68.76,
    "upside90th": 170.18
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 26.23,
    "base": 79.59,
    "upside90th": 241.49
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 25.58,
    "base": 92.13,
    "upside90th": 331.9
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 25.45,
    "base": 106.65,
    "upside90th": 446.92
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 25.69,
    "base": 123.44,
    "upside90th": 593.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 26.22,
    "base": 142.89,
    "upside90th": 778.58
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 27,
    "base": 165.4,
    "upside90th": 1013.15
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 28,
    "base": 191.45,
    "upside90th": 1309.04
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 29.21,
    "base": 221.61,
    "upside90th": 1681.3
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "MP Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$53.33",
    "Day Range": "$51.12 to $53.73",
    "Prev Close": "$54.30",
    "Volume": "6.85M",
    "52-Week Range": "$37.81 to $100.25",
    "Market Cap": "$9.14B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+2,451%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "MP Analysis",
   "text": [
    "MP Materials Corp. exhibits a neutral momentum according to its RSI of 42.36, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $51.31, suggesting some near-term support, but remains below its 200-day SMA of $57.56, pointing to a longer-term downtrend. MACD is currently at 0.417, suggesting a slight bullish bias but lacking strong momentum. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 6.85 million, 45% above the average of 4.73 million, which could signal increasing investor interest or a potential shift in trend if sustained.",
    "Current year revenue is projected to grow 99.00% to $447.4 million, with next year's growth estimated at 80.00%, indicating significant market demand for MP Materials' products.",
    "With 18 analysts rating MP Materials a Buy and a median price target of $75.00, there is strong institutional conviction in the stock's potential upside.",
    "MP Materials is a key producer of rare earth elements in North America, essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy, positioning it to benefit from global decarbonization trends.",
    "The company currently reports a negative EPS of -0.33, indicating a lack of profitability which could deter investors focused on near-term earnings.",
    "Trading below its 200-day SMA of $57.56 suggests a longer-term downtrend, which may continue if fundamental improvements do not materialize.",
    "MP Materials Corp. is expected to see significant revenue growth over the next 1-2 years, driven by increasing demand for rare earth elements critical to the energy transition. The company's strategic position as a primary producer in North America positions it favorably to capture market share. The median analyst price target of $75.00 suggests a bullish outlook, implying that the market anticipates a turnaround in profitability. The company's ability to convert its strong revenue growth into positive earnings will be a key determinant of its future stock performance. Potential catalysts include securing new long-term supply agreements, successful scaling of production capacity, and favorable geopolitical developments impacting rare earth supply chains. Conversely, a slowdown in EV adoption, increased competition from international producers, or failure to achieve profitability could negatively impact the stock. The company's long-range projection indicates a potential base price of $92.13 by 2030, underscoring the long-term growth narrative."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "MP Materials Corp.'s strong revenue growth is a positive sign, but investors should closely monitor its path to profitability and its ability to manage costs effectively.",
     "The stock's current position below its 200-day moving average suggests caution for short-term traders, while the strong analyst consensus and upside potential may appeal to long-term investors.",
     "Given the cyclical nature of the materials sector and the strategic importance of rare earth elements, staying informed on global demand trends and geopolitical factors impacting supply chains is essential for managing risk."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Revenue Growth Projections",
     "text": "Current year revenue is projected to grow 99.00% to $447.4 million, with next year's growth estimated at 80.00%, indicating significant market demand for MP Materials' products.",
     "source": "Wall Street Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Wall Street Consensus and Price Target",
     "text": "With 18 analysts rating MP Materials a Buy and a median price target of $75.00, there is strong institutional conviction in the stock's potential upside.",
     "source": "Wall Street Summary"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strategic Importance in Rare Earths Market",
     "text": "MP Materials is a key producer of rare earth elements in North America, essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy, positioning it to benefit from global decarbonization trends.",
     "source": "Company Profile"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Negative Earnings Per Share (EPS)",
     "text": "The company currently reports a negative EPS of -0.33, indicating a lack of profitability which could deter investors focused on near-term earnings.",
     "source": "Company Financials"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Below 200-Day Moving Average",
     "text": "Trading below its 200-day SMA of $57.56 suggests a longer-term downtrend, which may continue if fundamental improvements do not materialize.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "MP Materials Corp. currently has a negative EPS of -0.33, making its P/E ratio mathematically negative and thus not comparable to sector averages. However, the company's revenue growth is exceptional, projected at 99.00% for the current year, far exceeding the sector median of 19.00%. This strong top-line expansion, coupled with a median price target of $75.00 from Wall Street analysts, suggests that the market is pricing in future profitability and growth potential. The company's strategic position in the rare earth magnet market is a key fundamental driver, although the current lack of profitability remains a point of caution.",
    "MP Materials Corp. reported mixed recent earnings. The most recent quarter ending July 22, 2026, showed an EPS of $0.07, matching estimates with no surprise and a price change of -2.25%. The prior quarter ending May 5, 2026, saw a positive surprise of 14.58% with an EPS of $3.30 against an estimate of $2.88, leading to a price increase of 6.74%. Prior to that, the quarter ending April 23, 2026, had a slight beat of 3.23% with an EPS of $0.96, but the stock declined 4.09%. This pattern indicates volatility in earnings performance and market reaction, highlighting the importance of future profitability.",
    "MP Materials Corp. faces significant risks including its current negative EPS, which indicates a lack of profitability despite strong revenue growth. The stock's position below its 200-day moving average suggests a longer-term bearish trend that could persist if profitability does not materialize. Also, the company operates in a highly cyclical industry, making it susceptible to fluctuations in commodity prices and global demand for rare earth elements."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "9.14B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "N/A (Negative EPS)"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "-0.3300"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "100.25"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "37.81"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Neutral RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $51.31, 200-day: $57.56), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "42.36"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.42"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "51.31"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "57.56"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.31",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.33",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.27",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.22"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "MP Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (42.4) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$52.81",
    "TARGET 2": "$55.32",
    "TARGET 3": "$57.84",
    "STOP LOSS": "$46.45"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "3.99%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in MP in June 2020 would be worth about $51,320 today, compared with about $24,397 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MP today could grow to about $43,183 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $327,611 and a bear case around $5,692. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "MP Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $92.13 for MP by 2030 in the base case, from $51.32 today (1.8x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $25.58. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. MP is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "MP simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$31.30",
        "$59.40",
        "$113"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$27.78",
        "$68.76",
        "$170"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$26.23",
        "$79.59",
        "$241"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$25.58",
        "$92.13",
        "$332"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$25.45",
        "$107",
        "$447"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$25.69",
        "$123",
        "$593"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$26.22",
        "$143",
        "$779"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$27.00",
        "$165",
        "$1,013"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$28.00",
        "$191",
        "$1,309"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$29.21",
        "$222",
        "$1,681"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
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  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is MP Materials Corp.'s stock forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "MP Materials Corp.'s stock forecast for 2030, based on Monte Carlo simulations, projects a base price of $92.13, with a downside price of $25.58 and an upside price of $331.9. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is MP Materials Corp. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "MP Materials Corp. is rated a Buy by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $75.00, suggesting a 46.1% upside from the current price of $51.32. The company exhibits strong revenue growth, although it currently has negative EPS."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing MP Materials Corp.?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for MP Materials Corp. include its current negative earnings per share, its position below the 200-day moving average indicating a longer-term downtrend, and the inherent cyclicality of the rare earth elements market."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does MP Materials Corp. compare to its sector averages?",
   "answer": "MP Materials Corp. significantly outperforms the Basic Materials sector in revenue growth, with current year projections at 99.00% compared to the sector median of 19.00%. However, its P/E ratio of -155.52 (negative due to EPS of $-0.33)."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is MP Materials Corp.'s current technical momentum?",
   "answer": "MP Materials Corp. shows neutral technical momentum with an RSI at 42.4. While it trades above its 50-day SMA, it remains below its 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed short-to-medium term trend."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the revenue growth expectations for MP Materials Corp.?",
   "answer": "Revenue growth expectations for MP Materials Corp. are strong. The current year is projected to see 99.00% growth, with next year estimated at 80.00% growth, reaching approximately $671.1 million."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus for MP Materials Corp. stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for MP Materials Corp. is a strong Buy, with 18 analysts covering the stock. There are no Sell or Hold ratings, and the consensus score is 82 out of 100, with a median price target of $75.00."
  }
 ],
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