{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mcdonalds-mcd/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/mcdonalds-mcd/data.json",
 "title": "McDonald's (MCD) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "McDonald's Corp. (MCD) stock: Consumer Cyclical, Restaurants. $179.1B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "McDonald's Corp. (MCD)",
 "published": "2026-06-11T09:14:53+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T03:01:48.219+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T21:01:07.606Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "MCD",
  "name": "McDonald's Corp.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Restaurants",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.mcdonalds.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 253.05,
  "previousClose": 253.48,
  "change": -0.43,
  "changePercent": -0.17,
  "open": 255.039993,
  "high": 255.56,
  "low": 252.53999,
  "volume": 4345400,
  "averageVolume": 4569810,
  "marketCap": 179068691542,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 341.75,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 252.53999,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T03:01:45.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 20.539774,
  "eps": 12.32,
  "dividendYield": 0.02940420977954374,
  "beta": 0.414,
  "priceToSales": 6.4641075,
  "priceToBook": -174.85448638884165,
  "revenueTtm": 27701999616,
  "grossMargin": 0.5801408450704225,
  "returnOnEquity": -4.781127861529872
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 25.65,
  "macd": -4.32,
  "sma50": 268.57,
  "sma200": 295.2,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 59,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 305,
  "analystTarget": 305,
  "analystCount": 34,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T03:01:45.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 253.050003,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.16,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 250.52,
  "aggressiveEntry": 253.05,
  "stopLoss": 242.25,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.3,
  "targets": [
   258.04,
   263.05,
   270.56
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 209.26,
    "base": 272.46,
    "upside90th": 354.75
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 201.98,
    "base": 293.36,
    "upside90th": 426.09
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 199.98,
    "base": 315.87,
    "upside90th": 498.91
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 200.62,
    "base": 340.1,
    "upside90th": 576.55
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 202.96,
    "base": 366.18,
    "upside90th": 660.68
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 206.56,
    "base": 394.27,
    "upside90th": 752.58
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 211.18,
    "base": 424.52,
    "upside90th": 853.39
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 216.67,
    "base": 457.08,
    "upside90th": 964.23
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 222.97,
    "base": 492.14,
    "upside90th": 1086.29
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 230.01,
    "base": 529.9,
    "upside90th": 1220.8
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "MCD Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$255.04",
    "Day Range": "$252.54 to $255.56",
    "Prev Close": "$253.48",
    "Volume": "4.35M",
    "52-Week Range": "$252.54 to $341.75",
    "Market Cap": "$179.07B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-19% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "MCD Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, MCD beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "MCD Analysis",
   "text": [
    "McDonald's (MCD) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $268.57 and its 200-day SMA of $295.20, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 25.65, firmly in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but the MACD at -4.32 also points to bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price around $253.05, with resistance seen at the 50-day SMA. Volume has been slightly below average recently, with 4.35 million shares traded compared to a 4.57 million average. This lack of strong conviction on either side of the price action, coupled with the oversold RSI, suggests that while a bounce is possible, the broader trend remains downward until key moving averages are reclaimed. The current technical setup indicates caution for near-term price appreciation.",
    "Insiders have sold $47.4 million worth of McDonald's (MCD) stock across 61 transactions, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term performance.",
    "McDonald's (MCD) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($268.57 and $295.20), with bearish momentum indicated by the MACD, suggesting potential for further price declines.",
    "The RSI for McDonald's (MCD) is at 25.65, indicating an oversold condition that could precede a short-term price bounce.",
    "McDonald's (MCD) recently beat EPS estimates for the August 4, 2026 quarter, leading to a 2.11% stock price increase, demonstrating operational resilience.",
    "The base case for McDonald's (MCD) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a period of consolidation or a potential bounce from oversold technical levels, aiming towards the median analyst target price of $305. The company's established brand and consistent earnings performance provide a foundation for stability, and forward revenue growth is projected at 5.00% for the current year. However, the bearish technical trend, with the stock trading below key moving averages, and significant insider selling totaling $47.4 million, pose considerable downside risks. A failure to regain upward momentum could see the stock retest lower support levels, potentially challenging the $305.00 target, especially if broader market sentiment turns negative or competitive pressures intensify."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider transaction activity closely; significant selling pressure could indicate management's concerns about future performance.",
     "Given the oversold RSI, consider waiting for confirmation of a technical trend reversal before initiating new positions.",
     "The stock's current P/E ratio is below the sector average, but ensure this is not solely due to slower growth prospects compared to peers."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Significant Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $47.4 million worth of McDonald's (MCD) stock across 61 transactions, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term performance.",
     "source": "Insider Summary"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Trend",
     "text": "McDonald's (MCD) is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($268.57 and $295.20), with bearish momentum indicated by the MACD, suggesting potential for further price declines.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Oversold RSI Conditions",
     "text": "The RSI for McDonald's (MCD) is at 25.65, indicating an oversold condition that could precede a short-term price bounce.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Earnings Beat",
     "text": "McDonald's (MCD) recently beat EPS estimates for the August 4, 2026 quarter, leading to a 2.11% stock price increase, demonstrating operational resilience.",
     "source": "Earnings Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "McDonald's (MCD) exhibits a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.54, which is below the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation relative to its peers. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) stands at $12.32. While the P/E is lower than the sector average, the revenue growth of 3.7% is also below the sector's 10.0% average, indicating slower expansion. Profitability metrics are generally solid, with a positive net profit margin implied by the EPS and P/E. However, the company's growth rate is not as strong as some competitors, which is reflected in its valuation. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the current valuation suggests that the market is pricing in moderate growth and stability rather than aggressive expansion.",
    "McDonald's (MCD) most recently reported an EPS of $3.38 for the August 4, 2026 quarter, beating the estimate of $3.32 by 1.81%, which corresponded with a 2.11% increase in stock price. Prior to this, the company beat estimates in the May 6, 2026 quarter by 6.67% ($2.72 actual vs. $2.55 estimate), though the stock saw a slight decrease of 0.14%. The company has demonstrated a pattern of meeting or slightly exceeding earnings expectations over the last few reported quarters.",
    "The primary risk for McDonald's (MCD) is the ongoing insider selling, with $47.4 million in sales, indicating a potential lack of confidence from management in the near-term outlook. Technically, the stock is trading below key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMAs) and exhibits bearish momentum, suggesting further downside potential. Additionally, the company's revenue growth of 3.7% is below the sector average, indicating a slower pace of expansion compared to peers."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "179.07B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "20.54"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "12.32"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "2.94%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "341.75"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "252.54"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $268.57, 200-day: $295.20), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 25.7 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "25.65"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-4.32"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "268.57"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "295.20"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.15",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.02",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "-0.12",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.05"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "MCD Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (25.7) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$258.04",
    "TARGET 2": "$263.05",
    "TARGET 3": "$270.56",
    "STOP LOSS": "$242.25"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+0.71%",
    "Average Feb return": "-0.55%",
    "Average Mar return": "-0.52%",
    "Average Apr return": "+4.21%",
    "Average May return": "-0.19%",
    "Average Jun return": "-0.70%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.50%",
    "Average Aug return": "+2.11%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.86%",
    "Average Oct return": "+1.61%",
    "Average Nov return": "+3.06%",
    "Average Dec return": "+0.83%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.16%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in MCD in September 2016 would be worth about $21,824 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MCD today could grow to about $20,940 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $48,243 and a bear case around $9,089. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "MCD Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $340 for MCD by 2030 in the base case, from $253 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $201. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MCD's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MCD's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "MCD simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$209",
        "$272",
        "$355"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$202",
        "$293",
        "$426"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$200",
        "$316",
        "$499"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$201",
        "$340",
        "$577"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$203",
        "$366",
        "$661"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$207",
        "$394",
        "$753"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$211",
        "$425",
        "$853"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$217",
        "$457",
        "$964"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$223",
        "$492",
        "$1,086"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$230",
        "$530",
        "$1,221"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/dutch-bros-bros/"
    },
    {
     "text": "TM Toyota Motor Corporation Sponsored NYSE $198.57 +3.16%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/tm-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "IP International Paper Co. NYSE $34.29 -1.01%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/international-paper-ip/"
    },
    {
     "text": "JD JD.com, Inc. Sponsored NASDAQ $27.12 +0.3516%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/jd-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "HD The Home Depot, Inc. NYSE $306.66 -1.22%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/home-depot-hd/"
    },
    {
     "text": "DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. NYSE $137.98 +1.78%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/dhi-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "MELI MercadoLibre Inc. NASDAQ $1,901.19 -0.2649%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mercadolibre-meli/"
    },
    {
     "text": "BIGG Big Tree Group Inc. OTC $0.0001 +0.00%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/bigg-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Compare MCD",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "MCD vs SBUX Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/mcd-vs-sbux/"
    },
    {
     "text": "WFC vs C Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/wfc-vs-c/"
    },
    {
     "text": "VOO vs SPYM Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/voo-vs-splg/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "MCD Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$47.4M",
    "Insiders": "12",
    "Avg Transaction": "$1.5M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in MCD",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Oct 24, 2018",
       "cells": [
        "EASTERBROOK STEPHEN J Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "201.1K",
        "$35.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 21, 2017",
       "cells": [
        "EASTERBROOK STEPHEN J Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "171.6K",
        "$28.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 13, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "52.6K",
        "$17.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 5, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "FAIRHURST DAVID OGDEN Officer",
        "Sell",
        "76.4K",
        "$13.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 29, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "OZAN KEVIN M Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "47.6K",
        "$11.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 4, 2016",
       "cells": [
        "MCKENNA ANDREW J Retired",
        "Sell",
        "70.0K",
        "$8.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 1, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "OZAN KEVIN M Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "40.9K",
        "$8.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 3, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J Officer",
        "Sell",
        "38.7K",
        "$7.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jan 31, 2018",
       "cells": [
        "GOARE DOUGLAS M Officer",
        "Sell",
        "34.6K",
        "$6.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 1, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "LAGNADO SILVIA Officer",
        "Sell",
        "26.6K",
        "$5.7M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=McDonald%27s+Corp.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is McDonald's stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "McDonald's (MCD) is currently rated a 'Hold' by Wall Street with a median price target of $305, suggesting approximately 20.5% upside from its current price of $253.05. However, the stock is trading below its key moving averages and has seen significant insider selling, which warrants caution."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is McDonald's stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, McDonald's (MCD) stock is projected to reach a base price of $340.10 by 2030, with a downside projection of $200.62 and an upside projection of $576.55. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing McDonald's?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for McDonald's (MCD) include significant insider selling totaling $47.4 million, a bearish technical setup with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($268.57 and $295.20), and slower revenue growth compared to its sector peers."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is McDonald's performing financially?",
   "answer": "McDonald's (MCD) reported an EPS of $3.38 in its latest quarter, beating estimates, and has shown consistent earnings performance. Revenue growth was 3.7%, and forward revenue growth is projected at 5.00% for the current year."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is McDonald's valuation compared to its sector?",
   "answer": "McDonald's (MCD) has a P/E ratio of 20.54, which is below the sector average of 25.5, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation. However, its revenue growth of 3.7% is also below the sector average of 10.0%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the RSI status for McDonald's stock?",
   "answer": "The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for McDonald's (MCD) is currently 25.65, which is considered 'Oversold'. This suggests the stock may be due for a short-term bounce, but it does not negate the broader bearish trend indicated by its moving averages."
  },
  {
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      "text": "The outlook for McDonald's (MCD) is mixed, with a 'Hold' consensus and upside to the median analyst target price of $305. However, bearish technicals and significant insider selling present near-term challenges that could limit immediate gains."
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}