{ "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt", "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis", "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/", "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/data.json", "title": "Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Stock Forecast (2026)", "description": "Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock forecast: AI consensus rating, technical levels, dividend record and valuation checks for the industrial group. Updated daily.", "headline": "Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)", "published": "2026-09-02T09:19:25+00:00", "modified": "2026-09-11T14:39:27.614+00:00", "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:07.467Z", "language": "en-US", "publisher": { "name": "CleaRank", "url": "https://clearank.com/" }, "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.", "asset": { "ticker": "ITW", "name": "Illinois Tool Works Inc.", "type": "Common Stock", "exchange": "NYSE", "currency": "USD", "sector": "Industrials", "industry": "Specialty Industrial Machinery", "country": "United States", "website": "https://www.itw.com" }, "quote": { "price": 267.18, "previousClose": 265.2, "change": 1.98, "changePercent": 0.75, "open": 268.175, "high": 269.65, "low": 266.17, "volume": 6752, "averageVolume": 1096395, "marketCap": 75528962848, "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 303.16, "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 238.82001, "marketOpen": false, "asOf": "2026-09-11T14:39:25.000Z" }, "statistics": { "pe": 24.04352, "eps": 11.03, "dividendYield": 0.02410766092050836, "beta": 0.997, "priceToSales": 4.586129, "priceToBook": 26.097227, "revenueTtm": 16469000192, "grossMargin": 0.4412927226226459, "returnOnEquity": 1.04618 }, "technicals": { "rsi": 29.93, "macd": -4.71, "sma50": 280.04, "sma200": 267.36, "rsiSignal": "Oversold", "trend": "Bullish", "pricePosition": "Bearish", "macdSignal": "Bearish", "rating": "Bearish" }, "analysis": { "rating": "Sell", "score": 21, "consensus": "Sell", "fairValue": 267.18, "analystTarget": 300, "analystCount": 16, "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold", "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T14:39:25.000Z", "priceAtAnalysis": 267.18, "volatility": { "daily": 0.96, "risk": "standard" } }, "tradePlan": { "bias": "Bearish", "conservativeEntry": 272.52, "aggressiveEntry": 267.18, "stopLoss": 281.52, "stopLossPercent": 3.3, "targets": [ 258.9, 245.27, 231.65 ] }, "projections": { "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets", "years": [ { "year": 2027, "downside10th": 212.16, "base": 288.14, "upside90th": 391.33 }, { "year": 2028, "downside10th": 201.56, "base": 310.74, "upside90th": 479.08 }, { "year": 2029, "downside10th": 197.22, "base": 335.12, "upside90th": 569.46 }, { "year": 2030, "downside10th": 195.94, "base": 361.41, "upside90th": 666.62 }, { "year": 2031, "downside10th": 196.58, "base": 389.76, "upside90th": 772.79 }, { "year": 2032, "downside10th": 198.59, "base": 420.34, "upside90th": 889.68 }, { "year": 2033, "downside10th": 201.69, "base": 453.31, "upside90th": 1018.88 }, { "year": 2034, "downside10th": 205.68, "base": 488.88, "upside90th": 1162.01 }, { "year": 2035, "downside10th": 210.46, "base": 527.23, "upside90th": 1320.74 }, { "year": 2036, "downside10th": 215.98, "base": 568.59, "upside90th": 1496.89 } ] }, "faqCount": 7, "sources": [ "TwelveData", "Wall Street consensus" ], "sections": [ { "id": "price", "title": "ITW Price Analysis" }, { "id": "market-metrics", "title": "Market Metrics", "facts": { "Open": "$268.18", "Day Range": "$266.17 to $269.65", "Prev Close": "$265.20", "Volume": "6.8K", "52-Week Range": "$238.82 to $303.16", "Market Cap": "$75.53B" } }, { "id": "peer-benchmarking", "title": "Peer Benchmarking", "text": [ "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-29%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds." ] }, { "id": "analysis", "title": "ITW Analysis", "text": [ "With an RSI of 29.93, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is exhibiting oversold momentum, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36), indicating a bearish trend. The MACD is at -4.71, further reinforcing the negative momentum. Key support is near the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies at the 50-day SMA. Volume has been significantly below average, which could limit the impact of any potential upward price movement.", "Insiders have sold $69.1 million in stock versus $2.1 million purchased, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future price weakness.", "ITW is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36), reinforcing a bearish technical trend and suggesting potential for further price declines.", "Wall Street expects current year revenue growth of approximately 5.00%, providing a baseline for business performance but not indicating significant acceleration.", "The median analyst price target for ITW is $300, offering a limited upside of 12.3% from the current price of $267.18, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from analysts.", "Illinois Tool Works (ITW) faces a challenging near-term outlook, with its current price action below key moving averages and oversold technical indicators suggesting potential for further downside. The substantial insider selling is a strong bearish signal that cannot be ignored. While the company's revenue growth is stable at approximately 5.00% for the current year, it lags behind sector peers, and the median analyst price target of $300 offers only modest upside from the current price of $267.18. A significant catalyst would be needed to reverse the current bearish sentiment, such as a clear shift in insider activity or a substantial improvement in growth prospects." ], "lists": { "ProTips": [ "The heavy insider selling in ITW warrants close monitoring; a sustained shift towards buying would be a key signal to reassess the bearish stance.", "Given the oversold RSI, traders might look for a technical bounce, but the underlying bearish trend and insider activity suggest caution against aggressive long positions.", "Consider the dividend yield of 2.41% as a potential support for the stock price, though it may not be sufficient to counteract the bearish technical and insider selling signals." ] }, "catalysts": [ { "type": "Bearish", "title": "Heavy Insider Selling", "text": "Insiders have sold $69.1 million in stock versus $2.1 million purchased, indicating a significant lack of confidence from management and potentially signaling future price weakness.", "source": "Insider Transactions" }, { "type": "Bearish", "title": "Trading Below Key Moving Averages", "text": "ITW is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36), reinforcing a bearish technical trend and suggesting potential for further price declines.", "source": "Technical Analysis" }, { "type": "Neutral", "title": "Stable Revenue Growth Estimates", "text": "Wall Street expects current year revenue growth of approximately 5.00%, providing a baseline for business performance but not indicating significant acceleration.", "source": "Wall Street Estimates" }, { "type": "Neutral", "title": "Median Analyst Price Target", "text": "The median analyst price target for ITW is $300, offering a limited upside of 12.3% from the current price of $267.18, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from analysts.", "source": "Wall Street Summary" } ] }, { "id": "key-statistics", "title": "Key Statistics", "text": [ "Illinois Tool Works (ITW) trades at a P/E ratio of 24.04, which is below the sector median of 34.0, suggesting it is not excessively valued relative to its peers. However, its revenue growth of 6.1% lags the sector average of 11.7%. The company's net profit margin is not explicitly provided, but its EPS of $11.03 indicates profitability. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the lack of significant debt-to-equity ratio in sector averages suggests a manageable debt load. The current valuation appears reasonable on a P/E basis, but the lagging revenue growth and significant insider selling raise concerns about future performance.", "Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has shown mixed earnings performance, recently beating estimates by 1.43% in its latest reported quarter with EPS of $2.84 versus an estimate of $2.80, though the stock saw a minor price decline of 0.92%. Prior quarters also showed modest beats, with one significant EPS surprise of 54.76% in March 2026. Despite these beats, the stock reaction has been largely negative or flat, indicating that earnings performance may not be a strong catalyst for price appreciation.", "The most significant risk for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is the heavy insider selling, with over $69 million in dispositions versus only $2.1 million in purchases, signaling a lack of confidence from management. Additionally, the stock is trading below key technical support levels, with its RSI indicating oversold conditions, suggesting further downside potential before any meaningful recovery. The company's revenue growth also trails the sector average, which could limit its ability to outperform in the current market environment." ], "tables": [ { "caption": "", "columns": [], "rows": [ { "label": "Market Cap", "cells": [ "75.53B" ] }, { "label": "P/E Ratio", "cells": [ "24.04" ] }, { "label": "EPS (TTM)", "cells": [ "11.03" ] }, { "label": "Dividend Yield", "cells": [ "2.41%" ] }, { "label": "52 Week High", "cells": [ "303.16" ] }, { "label": "52 Week Low", "cells": [ "238.82" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "technical-indicators", "title": "Technical Indicators", "text": [ "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($280.04) above the 200-day SMA ($267.36), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 29.9 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup." ], "facts": { "RSI": "Oversold", "SMA Cross": "Bullish", "Price vs SMA": "Bearish", "MACD": "Bearish" }, "tables": [ { "caption": "", "columns": [], "rows": [ { "label": "RSI (14)", "cells": [ "29.93" ] }, { "label": "MACD", "cells": [ "-4.71" ] }, { "label": "SMA 50", "cells": [ "280.04" ] }, { "label": "SMA 200", "cells": [ "267.36" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "correlations", "title": "Market Correlations", "text": [ "How this stock moves relative to other assets", "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods." ], "facts": { "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.53", "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.37", "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "-0.19", "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.08" } }, { "id": "trade-plans", "title": "ITW Trade Plans", "text": [ "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels", "Lower risk, wait for rally", "Higher risk, chasing the move", "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (29.9) and current market volatility", "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3" ], "facts": { "TARGET 1": "$258.90", "TARGET 2": "$245.27", "TARGET 3": "$231.65", "STOP LOSS": "$281.52" } }, { "id": "risk", "title": "Risk & Volatility", "facts": { "Daily Volatility": "0.9564%" }, "lists": { "Risk considerations": [ "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels", "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range", "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure" ] } }, { "id": "growth", "title": "Growth of $10,000", "text": [ "A $10,000 investment in ITW in September 2016 would be worth about $22,520 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark." ] }, { "id": "monte-carlo", "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)", "text": [ "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ITW today could grow to about $21,281 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $56,025 and a bear case around $8,084. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees." ] }, { "id": "price-prediction", "title": "ITW Stock Price Prediction: 2030", "text": [ "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $361 for ITW by 2030 in the base case, from $267 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $196. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ITW's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.", "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ITW's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice." ], "tables": [ { "caption": "ITW simulated price paths by year", "columns": [ "Year", "Downside (10th pct)", "Base case", "Upside (90th pct)" ], "rows": [ { "label": "2027", "cells": [ "$212", "$288", "$391" ] }, { "label": "2028", "cells": [ "$202", "$311", "$479" ] }, { "label": "2029", "cells": [ "$197", "$335", "$569" ] }, { "label": "2030", "cells": [ "$196", "$361", "$667" ] }, { "label": "2031", "cells": [ "$197", "$390", "$773" ] }, { "label": "2032", "cells": [ "$199", "$420", "$890" ] }, { "label": "2033", "cells": [ "$202", "$453", "$1,019" ] }, { "label": "2034", "cells": [ "$206", "$489", "$1,162" ] }, { "label": "2035", "cells": [ "$210", "$527", "$1,321" ] }, { "label": "2036", "cells": [ "$216", "$569", "$1,497" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "people-also-watch", "title": "People Also Watch", "links": [ { "text": "HON Honeywell International Inc. 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NYSE $5.60 +2.66%", "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/achr-stock-analysis/" } ] }, { "id": "related-comparisons", "title": "Popular Comparisons", "links": [ { "text": "VTI vs QQQ Comparison Head-to-head analysis →", "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vti-vs-qqq/" }, { "text": "Roundhill MAGS vs Invesco QQQ: Magnificent 7 Comparison Head-to-head analysis →", "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/mags-vs-qqq/" }, { "text": "VGT vs XLK Comparison Head-to-head analysis →", "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vgt-vs-xlk/" } ] }, { "id": "insider-trading", "title": "ITW Insider Trading Analysis", "facts": { "Bought": "$2.1M", "Sold": "$69.1M", "Insiders": "25", "Avg Transaction": "$7.1M" }, "tables": [ { "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ITW", "columns": [ "Date", "Insider", "Type", "Shares", "Value" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Feb 3, 2023", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Chief Executive Officer", "Sell", "235.7K", "$58.0M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 4, 2026", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Director", "Sell", "167.3K", "$48.7M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 4, 2022", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Chief Executive Officer", "Sell", "148.8K", "$34.4M" ] }, { "label": "Oct 28, 2019", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Chief Executive Officer", "Sell", "152.6K", "$25.8M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 24, 2021", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Chief Executive Officer", "Sell", "124.2K", "$25.2M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 11, 2021", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Chief Executive Officer", "Sell", "100.2K", "$20.6M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 20, 2025", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Director", "Sell", "73.5K", "$19.4M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 19, 2025", "cells": [ "SANTI ERNEST SCOTT Director", "Sell", "70.0K", "$18.4M" ] }, { "label": "Feb 3, 2023", "cells": [ "O HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER A Officer", "Sell", "60.1K", "$14.8M" ] }, { "label": "Mar 7, 2025", "cells": [ "O HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER A Chief Executive Officer", "Sell", "48.5K", "$13.3M" ] } ] } ], "links": [ { "text": "SEC Form 4", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Illinois+Tool+Works+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany" } ] }, { "id": "faq", "title": "Frequently Asked Questions" } ], "faq": [ { "question": "Is Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock a buy right now?", "answer": "Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is not currently recommended as a buy. The stock is trading below its key moving averages, exhibits heavy insider selling, and Wall Street consensus is neutral, with a median price target of $300 suggesting limited upside from the current $267.18 price." }, { "question": "What is the outlook for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?", "answer": "The outlook for ITW is cautious due to significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While revenue growth is stable, it lags the sector average, and the stock's current price action suggests potential for further declines before a recovery." }, { "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Illinois Tool Works (ITW)?", "answer": "The primary risks for ITW include substantial insider selling totaling $69.1 million, indicating a lack of management confidence, and its current technical weakness with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($280.04 and $267.36). Lagging revenue growth compared to sector peers also presents a risk." }, { "question": "How does Illinois Tool Works (ITW) compare to its sector averages?", "answer": "ITW's P/E ratio of 24.04 is below the sector median of 34.0, but its revenue growth of 6.1% is also below the sector average of 11.7%. Its ROE of 17.8% is in line with the sector median." }, { "question": "What is the consensus rating for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?", "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for ITW is 'Hold', with a score of 47 out of 100. This is based on 16 analysts, with the majority rating the stock as 'Hold'." }, { "question": "What is the fair value of Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?", "answer": "The fair value for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is estimated at $267.18, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside from this valuation metric." }, { "question": "Are there any significant insider transactions for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)?", "answer": "Yes, there have been significant insider transactions for ITW. Insiders have sold a total of $69.1 million worth of stock, while purchasing only $2.1 million, indicating a strong net selling position." } ], "related": { "peopleAlsoWatch": [ { "ticker": "HON", "name": "Honeywell International Inc. NASDAQ", "price": "$202.17", "change": "-0.004942%", "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/honeywell-hon/" }, { "ticker": "FERG", "name": "Ferguson Enterprises Inc. 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We use our proprietary technology, expert analysis and verified trader insights, to deliver data driven broker evaluations you can trust. Our CLEAR™ Score is our foundation, a transparent, unbiased methodology that assesses brokers and firms based on the most critical factors including regulation, fees, platform reliability, and real user experiences. We are here to change an unfair system and unlike other review sites that are influenced by partnerships or subjective opinions, CleaRank is 100% independent–abiding by our rigorous CLEAR™ editorial code. We do not accept financial incentives from brokers, so what you see is what you get with no hidden agendas, just honest, actionable feedback. Clear data. Honest reviews. 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Updated daily.", "name": "Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Stock Forecast (2026)", "@id": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/#richSnippet", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/#webpage" }, "image": { "@id": "https://clearank.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/itw-analysis-2026-09.png" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@id": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/#webpage" } } ] }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FinancialProduct", "name": "Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)", "tickerSymbol": "ITW", "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/", "description": "AI-powered financial analysis for Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) including technical indicators, market metrics, valuation, and price targets - refreshed daily by CleaRank Financial AI.", "exchange": "NYSE", "offers": { "@type": "Offer", "price": 267.18, "priceCurrency": "USD", "availability": "https://schema.org/InStock", "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/itw-stock-analysis/", "priceValidUntil": "2026-09-12" } }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "Is Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock a buy right now?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is not currently recommended as a buy. The stock is trading below its key moving averages, exhibits heavy insider selling, and Wall Street consensus is neutral, with a median price target of $300 suggesting limited upside from the current $267.18 price." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is the outlook for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "The outlook for ITW is cautious due to significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While revenue growth is stable, it lags the sector average, and the stock's current price action suggests potential for further declines before a recovery." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What are the biggest risks facing Illinois Tool Works (ITW)?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "The primary risks for ITW include substantial insider selling totaling $69.1 million, indicating a lack of management confidence, and its current technical weakness with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Lagging revenue growth compared to sector peers also presents a risk." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "How does Illinois Tool Works (ITW) compare to its sector averages?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "ITW's P/E ratio of 24.04 is below the sector median of 34.0, but its revenue growth of 6.1% is also below the sector average of 11.7%. Its ROE of 17.8% is in line with the sector median." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is the consensus rating for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "The Wall Street consensus for ITW is 'Hold', with a score of 47 out of 100. This is based on 16 analysts, with the majority rating the stock as 'Hold'." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is the fair value of Illinois Tool Works (ITW) stock?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "The fair value for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is estimated at $267.18, which is its current trading price, indicating no immediate upside from this valuation metric." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "Are there any significant insider transactions for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Yes, there have been significant insider transactions for ITW. Insiders have sold a total of $69.1 million worth of stock, while purchasing only $2.1 million, indicating a strong net selling position." } } ] } ] }