{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/estc-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/estc-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Elastic N.V (ESTC) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Elastic N.V. (ESTC) stock: Technology, Software - Application. $8.8B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Elastic N.V. (ESTC)",
 "published": "2026-07-09T10:11:00+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T17:52:07.659+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:23.067Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ESTC",
  "name": "Elastic N.V.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Technology",
  "industry": "Software - Application",
  "country": "Netherlands",
  "website": "https://www.elastic.co"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 82.97,
  "previousClose": 83.48,
  "change": -0.51,
  "changePercent": -0.61,
  "open": 83.44,
  "high": 84.7,
  "low": 82.165,
  "volume": 78270,
  "averageVolume": 3440237,
  "marketCap": 8764672054,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 108,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 42.049999,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T17:51:55.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 24.841429,
  "eps": 3.5,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 1.037,
  "priceToSales": 5.065303,
  "priceToBook": 7.0474997,
  "revenueTtm": 1802156032,
  "grossMargin": 0.7449870637276125,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.33122003
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 47.41,
  "macd": 3.58,
  "sma50": 74.09,
  "sma200": 63.91,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 59,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 111.5,
  "analystTarget": 111.5,
  "analystCount": 30,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T17:51:55.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 82.97,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 5.27,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 82.14,
  "aggressiveEntry": 82.97,
  "stopLoss": 75.65,
  "stopLossPercent": 7.9,
  "targets": [
   84.6,
   86.25,
   88.71
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 45.67,
    "base": 86.68,
    "upside90th": 164.52
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 36.59,
    "base": 90.56,
    "upside90th": 224.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 31.18,
    "base": 94.61,
    "upside90th": 287.06
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 27.44,
    "base": 98.85,
    "upside90th": 356.09
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 24.64,
    "base": 103.27,
    "upside90th": 432.78
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 22.45,
    "base": 107.89,
    "upside90th": 518.41
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 20.69,
    "base": 112.72,
    "upside90th": 614.19
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 19.23,
    "base": 117.76,
    "upside90th": 721.36
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 17.99,
    "base": 123.03,
    "upside90th": 841.22
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 16.94,
    "base": 128.54,
    "upside90th": 975.18
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ESTC Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$83.44",
    "Day Range": "$82.17 to $84.70",
    "Prev Close": "$83.48",
    "Volume": "78.3K",
    "52-Week Range": "$42.05 to $108.00",
    "Market Cap": "$8.76B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-3% difference), suggesting fair market pricing relative to industry standards."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ESTC Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, ESTC beat estimates 5 times. The stock rose 4 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ESTC Analysis",
   "text": [
    "At $82.97, Elastic N.V. exhibits neutral momentum with its RSI at 47.41. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $74.09 and its 200-day SMA of $63.91, suggesting a longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, it is currently below its 20-day EMA of $85.46, indicating some near-term weakness. The MACD is at 3.58, suggesting a slight bullish bias, but the overall neutral RSI and recent price action below the short-term EMA point to a consolidation phase. Volume has been significantly below average recently, which could limit the impact of any immediate price movements.",
    "Elastic N.V. has a history of surpassing analyst EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 20.69% surprise, driving positive stock performance and indicating strong operational execution.",
    "Analysts project continued revenue growth of 15.00% year-over-year for the current and next fiscal years, supporting the company's expansion and market position.",
    "Insiders have sold $132.3 million in stock versus only $710.2 thousand purchased, signaling a strong lack of confidence in the current valuation and potentially indicating future price pressure.",
    "The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($74.09 and $63.91), indicating a generally positive long-term technical trend, though recent weakness below the 20-day EMA warrants attention.",
    "Elastic N.V. is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates projecting a 15.00% increase year-over-year, reaching approximately $2 billion. The median analyst target price of $111.50 suggests a potential upside of 34.4% from the current $82.97 price, supported by consistent earnings beats and positive revenue momentum. The stock's position above key long-term moving averages also provides a technical foundation for potential gains. However, the overwhelming insider selling presents a significant overhang, potentially limiting upside and increasing downside risk if confidence erodes further."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider selling closely; a continued trend could signal a reassessment of the stock's valuation.",
     "The stock's neutral RSI and recent trading below the 20-day EMA suggest caution for short-term traders, with key support near the 50-day SMA at $74.09.",
     "Given the significant insider selling, consider a smaller position size or implementing tighter stop-loss orders to manage risk."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Consistent Earnings Beats",
     "text": "Elastic N.V. has a history of surpassing analyst EPS estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 20.69% surprise, driving positive stock performance and indicating strong operational execution.",
     "source": "Earnings Reports"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Revenue Growth Outlook",
     "text": "Analysts project continued revenue growth of 15.00% year-over-year for the current and next fiscal years, supporting the company's expansion and market position.",
     "source": "Wall Street Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Heavy Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $132.3 million in stock versus only $710.2 thousand purchased, signaling a strong lack of confidence in the current valuation and potentially indicating future price pressure.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Trading Above Key Moving Averages",
     "text": "The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($74.09 and $63.91), indicating a generally positive long-term technical trend, though recent weakness below the 20-day EMA warrants attention.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Elastic N.V. presents a mixed fundamental picture with a P/E ratio of 24.84, which is slightly above the sector average of 25.5, but its revenue growth of 15.1% outpaces the sector average of 10.0%. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $3.50 is strong, and recent quarterly results have consistently beaten analyst estimates, indicating strong operational performance. While the company's valuation appears reasonable given its growth trajectory, the significant insider selling activity raises concerns about management's confidence in future performance, potentially signaling that the current stock price may be overvalued from an insider's perspective.",
    "Elastic N.V. has a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations, with the most recent quarter ending August 27, 2026, showing an EPS of $0.70 against an estimate of $0.58, a positive surprise of 20.69%. This beat was accompanied by a substantial 19.31% increase in stock price. Prior quarters also demonstrated positive surprises, suggesting consistent operational execution and effective management. The company's revenue growth is projected to remain strong at 15.00% year-over-year for the current and next quarters.",
    "The primary risk for Elastic N.V. is the significant insider selling totaling $132.3 million, which signals a potential lack of confidence from management and could weigh on future stock performance. Despite positive revenue growth and earnings beats, this heavy selling pressure suggests that current valuations may not be sustainable. Additionally, the stock's neutral RSI and recent trading below its 20-day EMA indicate potential for near-term price weakness."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "8.76B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "24.84"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "3.50"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "108.00"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "42.05"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($74.09) above the 200-day SMA ($63.91), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "47.41"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "3.58"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "74.09"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "63.91"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.37",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.36",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.05",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "-0.03"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ESTC Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (47.4) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$84.60",
    "TARGET 2": "$86.25",
    "TARGET 3": "$88.71",
    "STOP LOSS": "$75.65"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+5.47%",
    "Average Feb return": "-1.71%",
    "Average Mar return": "-11.70%",
    "Average Apr return": "+0.64%",
    "Average May return": "+9.02%",
    "Average Jun return": "+2.06%",
    "Average Jul return": "+7.05%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.47%",
    "Average Sep return": "-1.12%",
    "Average Oct return": "-2.29%",
    "Average Nov return": "+5.69%",
    "Average Dec return": "-4.14%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "5.27%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ESTC in October 2018 would be worth about $11,926 today, compared with about $26,330 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ESTC today could grow to about $15,492 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $117,534 and a bear case around $2,042. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ESTC Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $98.85 for ESTC by 2030 in the base case, from $82.97 today (1.2x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $27.44. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ESTC's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ESTC's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ESTC simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$45.67",
        "$86.68",
        "$165"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$36.59",
        "$90.56",
        "$224"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$31.18",
        "$94.61",
        "$287"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$27.44",
        "$98.85",
        "$356"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$24.64",
        "$103",
        "$433"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$22.45",
        "$108",
        "$518"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$20.69",
        "$113",
        "$614"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$19.23",
        "$118",
        "$721"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$17.99",
        "$123",
        "$841"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$16.94",
        "$129",
        "$975"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/ibm-international-business-machines/"
    },
    {
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    },
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/teledyne-technologies-tdy/"
    },
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/netapp-ntap/"
    },
    {
     "text": "RMBS Rambus Inc. NASDAQ $87.21 +2.18%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/rambus-rmbs/"
    },
    {
     "text": "FN Fabrinet NYSE $413.76 +2.43%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/fabrinet-fn/"
    },
    {
     "text": "DDOG Datadog NASDAQ $220.51 -0.5457%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/datadog-ddog/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/adi-vs-txn/"
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ESTC Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$710.2K",
    "Sold": "$132.3M",
    "Insiders": "12",
    "Avg Transaction": "$2.7M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ESTC",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Dec 4, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "SCHUURMAN STEVEN Director",
        "Sell",
        "2.4M",
        "$266.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 28, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "SCHUURMAN STEVEN Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "675.0K",
        "$97.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 8, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "SCHUURMAN STEVEN Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "500.0K",
        "$82.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 26, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "SCHUURMAN STEVEN Director",
        "Sell",
        "815.0K",
        "$79.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 23, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "SCHUURMAN STEVEN Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "750.0K",
        "$78.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 23, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "SCHUURMAN STEVEN Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "700.0K",
        "$62.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 15, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "BANON SHAY - SHALOM Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "424.6K",
        "$59.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 10, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "BANON SHAY - SHALOM Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "353.9K",
        "$50.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "BANON SHAY - SHALOM Chief Technology Officer",
        "Sell",
        "476.3K",
        "$44.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 10, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "BANON SHAY - SHALOM Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "400.0K",
        "$32.9M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Elastic+N.V.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Elastic N.V. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Elastic N.V. is currently rated a Hold by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $111.50 suggesting a 34.4% upside from the current price of $82.97. However, significant insider selling presents a considerable risk that investors should consider."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Elastic N.V.'s price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Elastic N.V.'s stock price is projected to be $98.85 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside projection of $27.44 and an upside projection of $356.09. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Elastic N.V. stock?",
   "answer": "The most significant risk is the heavy insider selling, with over $132 million in shares sold against minimal purchases, indicating potential internal concerns about valuation or future prospects. Additionally, the stock's neutral RSI and recent dip below its 20-day EMA suggest potential near-term price volatility."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has Elastic N.V. performed in recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "Elastic N.V. has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with the latest quarter showing a 20.69% EPS surprise and driving a 19.31% stock price increase. This pattern of positive earnings surprises suggests strong operational execution."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does Elastic N.V. compare to its sector averages?",
   "answer": "Elastic N.V.'s revenue growth of 15.1% exceeds the sector average of 10.0%, but its P/E ratio of 24.84 is slightly below the sector average of 25.5. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is projected at 15.0%, aligning with the sector average."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus for Elastic N.V. stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for Elastic N.V. is currently a 'Hold', with 30 analysts covering the stock. The median price target is $111.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.4% from the current price."
  },
  {
   "question": "What does the insider trading activity suggest for Elastic N.V.?",
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      "text": "Elastic N.V.'s revenue growth of 15.1% exceeds the sector average of 10.0%, but its P/E ratio of 24.84 is slightly below the sector average of 25.5. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is projected at 15.0%, aligning with the sector average."
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      "text": "Insider trading activity shows a 'Heavy Sell Signal', with insiders selling $132.3 million in stock compared to only $710.2 thousand in purchases. This significant net selling suggests a lack of insider confidence in the current stock valuation."
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}