{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/elf-beauty-elf/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/elf-beauty-elf/data.json",
 "title": "e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) stock: Consumer Defensive, Household & Personal Products. $5.7B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)",
 "published": "2026-07-14T09:36:41+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T20:28:37.377+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-12T21:58:02.616Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ELF",
  "name": "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
  "industry": "Household & Personal Products",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.elfbeauty.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 96.95,
  "previousClose": 95.76,
  "change": 1.19,
  "changePercent": 1.24,
  "open": 97.38,
  "high": 98.35,
  "low": 94.65,
  "volume": 67287,
  "averageVolume": 1470259,
  "marketCap": 5650605696,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 150.99001,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 48.82,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T20:28:35.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 106.46809,
  "eps": 0.94,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 2.389,
  "priceToSales": 22.005554,
  "priceToBook": 22.479784,
  "revenueTtm": 268364992,
  "grossMargin": 0.8320034712009229,
  "returnOnEquity": -0.00291
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 43.06,
  "macd": 3.24,
  "sma50": 89.86,
  "sma200": 76.61,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 68,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 100,
  "analystTarget": 100,
  "analystCount": 18,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T20:28:35.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 96.95,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 3.45,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 95.01,
  "aggressiveEntry": 96.95,
  "stopLoss": 89.44,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.86,
  "targets": [
   99.76,
   104.51,
   109.26
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 56.37,
    "base": 107,
    "upside90th": 203.08
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 47.71,
    "base": 118.09,
    "upside90th": 292.26
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 42.95,
    "base": 130.33,
    "upside90th": 395.42
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 39.93,
    "base": 143.83,
    "upside90th": 518.15
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 37.88,
    "base": 158.74,
    "upside90th": 665.24
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 36.46,
    "base": 175.19,
    "upside90th": 841.78
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 35.48,
    "base": 193.35,
    "upside90th": 1053.53
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 34.84,
    "base": 213.39,
    "upside90th": 1307.11
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 34.44,
    "base": 235.51,
    "upside90th": 1610.23
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 34.26,
    "base": 259.91,
    "upside90th": 1971.87
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ELF Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$97.38",
    "Day Range": "$94.65 to $98.35",
    "Prev Close": "$95.76",
    "Volume": "67.3K",
    "52-Week Range": "$48.82 to $150.99",
    "Market Cap": "$5.65B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+340%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ELF Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ELF beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ELF Analysis",
   "text": [
    "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($89.86 and $76.61), signaling a bullish trend in the medium to long term. The RSI is at 43.06, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD at 3.24 suggests underlying positive momentum. The stock is trading below its 20-day EMA of $100.43, which may act as near-term resistance. Volume on the latest trading day was significantly lower than the average, which is typical for a neutral momentum phase. Key support levels are found around the 50-day SMA, while the 20-day EMA and recent price highs present immediate resistance. The current technical setup suggests a consolidation phase after recent gains, with potential for further upside if key resistance levels are breached on increased volume.",
    "e.l.f. Beauty reported EPS of $1.75, significantly exceeding the estimate of $0.72 by 143.06% on August 5, 2026, leading to a 6.88% stock price increase.",
    "Insiders have sold over $97.6 million worth of stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $464.8 thousand, resulting in a 'Heavy Sell Signal' and raising concerns about management's confidence.",
    "While current quarter revenue growth is estimated at 36.00%, next year's growth is projected to slow to 8.00%, potentially impacting the company's premium valuation.",
    "The stock is currently trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($100.43), which may act as a near-term resistance level.",
    "The base case for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) anticipates continued growth, supported by strong revenue performance and a generally positive analyst consensus. The median price target of $100 suggests a modest upside from the current price of $96.95, reflecting expectations for sustained demand in its product category. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings estimates further strengthens this outlook. However, the significant insider selling and the premium valuation present considerable downside risks. A failure to meet the high growth expectations embedded in its P/E ratio could trigger a substantial price correction. Additionally, the projected slowdown in revenue growth from 36.00% this quarter to 8.00% next year warrants close monitoring, as it could challenge the current bullish sentiment and valuation multiples."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider transactions closely; the current 'Heavy Sell Signal' indicates significant selling pressure that could impact short-term price action.",
     "Given the high P/E ratio of 106.47, consider position sizing carefully to manage risk, especially if growth expectations falter.",
     "The stock is trading below its 20-day EMA, suggesting potential near-term resistance around $100.43; watch for a decisive break above this level on increased volume."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Q2 Earnings Beat",
     "text": "e.l.f. Beauty reported EPS of $1.75, significantly exceeding the estimate of $0.72 by 143.06% on August 5, 2026, leading to a 6.88% stock price increase.",
     "source": "Company PR"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Heavy Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold over $97.6 million worth of stock, significantly outweighing purchases of $464.8 thousand, resulting in a 'Heavy Sell Signal' and raising concerns about management's confidence.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Projected Revenue Growth Deceleration",
     "text": "While current quarter revenue growth is estimated at 36.00%, next year's growth is projected to slow to 8.00%, potentially impacting the company's premium valuation.",
     "source": "Wall Street Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Trading Below 20-Day EMA",
     "text": "The stock is currently trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($100.43), which may act as a near-term resistance level.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) exhibits strong revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 20.00% increase year-over-year, significantly outpacing the sector median of 5.3%. Despite this growth, the company's P/E ratio stands at 106.47, substantially higher than the Consumer Defensive sector median of 24.2, indicating a premium valuation. The EPS of $0.94, while positive, contributes to this high P/E. The company's balance sheet strength and profitability metrics are not detailed, but the high valuation suggests significant investor expectations for future growth. The substantial insider selling, totaling over $97.6 million, raises concerns about management's short-term confidence despite the strong revenue trajectory and positive analyst sentiment.",
    "e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) recently reported strong earnings, with an EPS of $1.75 for the August 5, 2026 quarter, significantly beating the estimate of $0.72 by 143.06% and leading to a 6.88% price increase. This follows a pattern of positive surprises, including a 72.22% beat in the February 4, 2026 quarter, though that instance was accompanied by a price drop of 9.18%. The company has demonstrated an ability to exceed analyst expectations, particularly in its most recent reporting period.",
    "The primary risk for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio of 106.47 significantly exceeding the sector average, which could lead to a sharp correction if growth expectations are not met. Significant insider selling, totaling over $97.6 million, signals a potential lack of confidence from management in the near-term outlook. Also, the company's revenue growth is projected to decelerate from 36.00% in the current quarter to 8.00% next year, which could challenge its premium valuation."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "5.65B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "106.47"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "0.9400"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "150.99"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "48.82"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($89.86) above the 200-day SMA ($76.61), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "43.06"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "3.24"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "89.86"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "76.61"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.35",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.34",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.30",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.03"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ELF Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (43.1) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$99.76",
    "TARGET 2": "$104.51",
    "TARGET 3": "$109.26",
    "STOP LOSS": "$89.44"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "-4.61%",
    "Average Feb return": "+3.49%",
    "Average Mar return": "-2.81%",
    "Average Apr return": "+4.86%",
    "Average May return": "+11.44%",
    "Average Jun return": "+11.53%",
    "Average Jul return": "-0.29%",
    "Average Aug return": "+4.58%",
    "Average Sep return": "-3.77%",
    "Average Oct return": "-2.47%",
    "Average Nov return": "+7.90%",
    "Average Dec return": "+0.65%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "3.45%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ELF in September 2016 would be worth about $36,136 today, compared with about $34,894 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ELF today could grow to about $26,809 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $203,390 and a bear case around $3,534. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ELF Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $144 for ELF by 2030 in the base case, from $96.95 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.93. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ELF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ELF's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. ELF is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ELF simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$56.37",
        "$107",
        "$203"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$47.71",
        "$118",
        "$292"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$42.95",
        "$130",
        "$395"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$39.93",
        "$144",
        "$518"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$37.88",
        "$159",
        "$665"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$36.46",
        "$175",
        "$842"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$35.48",
        "$193",
        "$1,054"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$34.84",
        "$213",
        "$1,307"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$34.44",
        "$236",
        "$1,610"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$34.26",
        "$260",
        "$1,972"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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    },
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/costco-cost/"
    },
    {
     "text": "WMT Walmart Inc. NASDAQ $107.15 +1.34%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/walmart-wmt/"
    },
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/kdp-stock-analysis/"
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/deo-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "LITE vs COHR Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/lite-vs-cohr/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ELF Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$464.8K",
    "Sold": "$97.6M",
    "Insiders": "15",
    "Avg Transaction": "$1.5M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ELF",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Oct 1, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "116.3K",
        "$15.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 18, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "74.5K",
        "$12.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 6, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "64.7K",
        "$12.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 14, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "77.3K",
        "$11.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 12, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "58.0K",
        "$10.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 5, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "89.2K",
        "$9.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jan 2, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "MILSTEN SCOTT KENNETH General Counsel",
        "Sell",
        "64.9K",
        "$9.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 2, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "302.7K",
        "$8.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 5, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "AMIN TARANG P Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "56.4K",
        "$7.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 8, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "FIELDS MANDY J Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "55.7K",
        "$7.6M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=e.l.f.+Beauty%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is e.l.f. Beauty's stock forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, e.l.f. Beauty's stock price is projected to be $143.83 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside projection of $39.93 and an upside projection of $518.15. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is e.l.f. Beauty stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Wall Street consensus is 'Buy' with a median price target of $100, suggesting a modest upside from the current price of $96.95. However, significant insider selling and a high P/E ratio present considerable risks."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing e.l.f. Beauty?",
   "answer": "The primary risks include its high valuation (P/E of 106.47 vs. sector median of 24.2), substantial insider selling exceeding $97.6 million, and projected deceleration in revenue growth."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has e.l.f. Beauty performed in recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "The company recently reported an EPS of $1.75, significantly beating estimates by 143.06% and driving a positive stock reaction. This follows a trend of positive earnings surprises, indicating strong operational performance."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the technical outlook for e.l.f. Beauty stock?",
   "answer": "Technically, ELF is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($89.86 and $76.61), indicating a bullish trend. However, it is below its 20-day EMA, suggesting near-term resistance, and RSI is neutral at 43.06."
  },
  {
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      "text": "The consensus rating from 18 analysts is 'Buy', with a Wall Street score of 68 out of 100. The ratings breakdown includes 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, and 6 Hold."
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}