{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/costco-cost/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/costco-cost/data.json",
 "title": "Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock: Consumer Defensive, Discount Stores. $400.2B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)",
 "published": "2026-05-29T09:09:17+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T02:21:27.761+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:08.649Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "COST",
  "name": "Costco Wholesale Corporation",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
  "industry": "Discount Stores",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.costco.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 902.38,
  "previousClose": 902.6,
  "change": -0.22,
  "changePercent": -0.02,
  "open": 906.28003,
  "high": 912.090027,
  "low": 899,
  "volume": 1922453,
  "averageVolume": 2017655,
  "marketCap": 400186403153,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 1096.5,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 844.059998,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T02:21:25.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 45.437057,
  "eps": 19.86,
  "dividendYield": 0.006516101828700876,
  "beta": 0.855,
  "priceToSales": 1.3630931,
  "priceToBook": 24.206772,
  "revenueTtm": 293586993152,
  "grossMargin": 0.12772413401959534,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.29152
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 37.89,
  "macd": -11.04,
  "sma50": 941.18,
  "sma200": 960.44,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 55,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 902.38,
  "analystTarget": 1100,
  "analystCount": 39,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T02:21:25.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 902.38,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.04,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 893.36,
  "aggressiveEntry": 902.38,
  "stopLoss": 866.56,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   920.16,
   938.02,
   964.82
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 765.7,
    "base": 1016.73,
    "upside90th": 1350.06
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 767.12,
    "base": 1145.57,
    "upside90th": 1710.72
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 789.84,
    "base": 1290.73,
    "upside90th": 2109.29
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 824.82,
    "base": 1454.3,
    "upside90th": 2564.18
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 869.16,
    "base": 1638.58,
    "upside90th": 3089.13
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 921.79,
    "base": 1846.22,
    "upside90th": 3697.72
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 982.38,
    "base": 2080.18,
    "upside90th": 4404.73
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 1050.99,
    "base": 2343.78,
    "upside90th": 5226.74
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 1127.94,
    "base": 2640.78,
    "upside90th": 6182.67
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 1213.72,
    "base": 2975.41,
    "upside90th": 7294.17
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "COST Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$906.28",
    "Day Range": "$899.00 to $912.09",
    "Prev Close": "$902.60",
    "Volume": "1.92M",
    "52-Week Range": "$844.06 to $1,096.50",
    "Market Cap": "$400.19B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+78%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "COST Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, COST beat estimates 4 times. The stock rose 3 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "COST Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Costco's trading volume of 1.92 million shares is currently 4.7% below its average, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from traders. The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($941.18 and $960.44), and its 20-day EMA ($932.57), all of which are now acting as resistance. The RSI is at 37.89, indicating bearish momentum, and the MACD is negative at -11.04, further reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook. Key support levels are not clearly defined given the current downward trend, but the stock's proximity to its 52-week low could offer some psychological support. The current chart structure suggests a potential for further downside or a period of consolidation until a clearer trend emerges, possibly driven by upcoming earnings or broader market sentiment shifts.",
    "A stronger-than-expected EPS beat in future quarters could validate Costco's premium valuation and reignite bullish sentiment.",
    "Sustained or increased insider selling could signal a lack of confidence in the stock's near-term prospects, potentially pressuring the stock price.",
    "Meeting or exceeding projected revenue growth of 9.00% next quarter and 8.00% next year will be key to maintaining investor confidence.",
    "If market sentiment shifts or interest rates rise, the premium P/E ratio of 45.44 could face compression, leading to a price decline.",
    "Costco's base case outlook for the next 6-12 months suggests a period of consolidation or moderate growth, with the median Wall Street price target indicating a potential 21.9% upside to $1100. The company's strong revenue growth trajectory, projected at 9.00% next quarter and 8.00% next year, provides a solid foundation. However, the current premium valuation and bearish technical indicators suggest that significant upward momentum may be limited in the short term. The thesis could be altered by stronger-than-expected earnings reports that justify the current valuation, or by a significant shift in insider sentiment towards buying. Conversely, increased competitive pressure, a broader market downturn, or a failure to meet revenue growth expectations could lead to a re-rating of the stock, potentially pushing it towards its downside projection of $824.82."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for signs of sustained revenue growth and profitability that can justify Costco's current premium valuation.",
     "Given the bearish technical signals and moderate insider selling, consider a more conservative entry point or a stop-loss order below recent support levels.",
     "The company's consistent revenue growth and strong brand loyalty are key strengths, but investors should remain vigilant regarding competitive dynamics within the discount retail sector."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Earnings Surprise",
     "text": "A stronger-than-expected EPS beat in future quarters could validate Costco's premium valuation and reignite bullish sentiment.",
     "source": "Analyst Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Continued Insider Selling",
     "text": "Sustained or increased insider selling could signal a lack of confidence in the stock's near-term prospects, potentially pressuring the stock price.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Revenue Growth Projections",
     "text": "Meeting or exceeding projected revenue growth of 9.00% next quarter and 8.00% next year will be key to maintaining investor confidence.",
     "source": "Wall Street Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Valuation Compression",
     "text": "If market sentiment shifts or interest rates rise, the premium P/E ratio of 45.44 could face compression, leading to a price decline.",
     "source": "Valuation Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Costco's current P/E ratio of 45.44 significantly exceeds the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation that may not be fully supported by its current earnings. While the company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 21.5%, its profitability metrics and balance sheet strength relative to its valuation need careful consideration. The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be around 15.0%, aligning with sector averages, but the high P/E suggests investors are pricing in substantial future growth. The company's dividend yield of approximately 0.61% is modest, reflecting its strategy of reinvesting profits back into the business. Investors should monitor forward-looking revenue estimates, which project 9.00% growth next quarter and 8.00% next year, to see if the current valuation can be justified by sustained expansion. The significant insider selling also raises questions about management's near-term confidence in the stock's valuation.",
    "Costco's recent earnings report for the quarter ending May 28, 2026, showed an EPS of $4.93, slightly beating the estimate of $4.92 by 0.2%, though the stock reacted negatively with a 3.91% price drop. Prior to this, an earnings surprise of 74.34% was reported in the quarter ending March 27, 2026, with an actual EPS of -$0.97 against an estimate of -$3.78, which saw a positive price reaction of 1.29%. The company has a mixed pattern of earnings beats and misses in the recent quarters presented, making future performance difficult to predict solely on historical data.",
    "The primary risk for Costco is its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than its sector peers, suggesting potential for a valuation correction. Recent insider selling, totaling $35.6 million, represents a moderate sell signal and could indicate a lack of near-term confidence from management. Also, the stock is trading below key moving averages, signaling bearish technical momentum and potential for further price declines if broader market sentiment sours or competitive pressures intensify."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "400.19B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "45.44"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "19.86"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.6139%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "1,096.50"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "844.06"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Bearish SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $941.18, 200-day: $960.44), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bearish",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "37.89"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-11.04"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "941.18"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "960.44"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.30",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.24",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.00",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "-0.03"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "COST Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (37.9) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$920.16",
    "TARGET 2": "$938.02",
    "TARGET 3": "$964.82",
    "STOP LOSS": "$866.56"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+3.49%",
    "Average Feb return": "+0.95%",
    "Average Mar return": "+0.42%",
    "Average Apr return": "+2.53%",
    "Average May return": "+0.59%",
    "Average Jun return": "+1.38%",
    "Average Jul return": "+3.58%",
    "Average Aug return": "+2.19%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.78%",
    "Average Oct return": "+0.72%",
    "Average Nov return": "+5.84%",
    "Average Dec return": "-1.31%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.04%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in COST in September 2016 would be worth about $59,488 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in COST today could grow to about $32,973 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $80,833 and a bear case around $13,450. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "COST Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $1,454 for COST by 2030 in the base case, from $902 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $825. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on COST's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using COST's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "COST simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$766",
        "$1,017",
        "$1,350"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$767",
        "$1,146",
        "$1,711"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$790",
        "$1,291",
        "$2,109"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$825",
        "$1,454",
        "$2,564"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$869",
        "$1,639",
        "$3,089"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$922",
        "$1,846",
        "$3,698"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$982",
        "$2,080",
        "$4,405"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$1,051",
        "$2,344",
        "$5,227"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$1,128",
        "$2,641",
        "$6,183"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$1,214",
        "$2,975",
        "$7,294"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "PM Philip Morris International Inc. NYSE $189.77 +2.19%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/pm-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "DEO Diageo plc Sponsored NYSE $86.31 +0.2439%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/deo-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation NASDAQ $98.48 -0.2229%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/kmb-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "SAM Boston Beer Company, Inc. NYSE $169.52 +4.43%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/sam-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KR The Kroger Co. NYSE $57.06 +1.10%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/kroger-kr/"
    },
    {
     "text": "SYY Sysco Corp. NYSE $83.57 +1.53%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/syy-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KO The Coca-Cola Company NYSE $88.11 +0.3188%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/coca-cola-ko/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. NASDAQ $31.46 -1.93%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/kdp-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Compare COST",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "COST vs WMT Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/cost-vs-wmt/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CSX vs NSC Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/csx-vs-nsc/"
    },
    {
     "text": "MU vs WDC Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/mu-vs-wdc/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "COST Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$35.6M",
    "Insiders": "23",
    "Avg Transaction": "$1.6M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in COST",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jan 23, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "JELINEK WALTER CRAIG Director",
        "Sell",
        "8.0K",
        "$5.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 25, 2018",
       "cells": [
        "LAZARUS FRANZ E Officer",
        "Sell",
        "23.0K",
        "$5.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 30, 2018",
       "cells": [
        "JELINEK WALTER CRAIG Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "22.5K",
        "$5.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 30, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "PORTERA JOSEPH P Officer",
        "Sell",
        "14.1K",
        "$4.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 17, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "KLAUER JAMES C Officer",
        "Sell",
        "4.0K",
        "$3.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 11, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "MILLER RUSSELL D Officer",
        "Sell",
        "4.4K",
        "$3.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 14, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "RUBANENKO YORAM B. Officer",
        "Sell",
        "4.0K",
        "$3.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 11, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "3.6K",
        "$3.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jan 8, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "MOULTON PAUL G Officer",
        "Sell",
        "9.0K",
        "$3.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 29, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "MILLER RUSSELL D Officer",
        "Sell",
        "3.4K",
        "$3.1M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Costco+Wholesale+Corporation&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Costco (COST) stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Costco (COST) is currently rated as a 'Hold' with a consensus score of 55. While Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' consensus and a median price target of $1100, suggesting a 21.9% upside, the stock's current valuation is high relative to its sector, and recent insider selling indicates caution."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Costco's (COST) fair value?",
   "answer": "Costco's (COST) fair value is currently assessed at $902.38, which is its present trading price, indicating no immediate upside based on this valuation metric."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the biggest risks facing Costco (COST)?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for Costco (COST) include its high valuation relative to sector averages, recent moderate insider selling totaling $35.6 million, and bearish technical momentum indicated by its position below key moving averages."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is Costco's (COST) revenue growth trending?",
   "answer": "Costco (COST) has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a reported 21.5% year-over-year increase. Analysts project continued growth, estimating 9.00% for the next quarter and 8.00% for the next year."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus for Costco (COST) stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for Costco (COST) is predominantly 'Buy', with 4 'Strong Buy', 20 'Buy', and 13 'Hold' ratings from 39 analysts. The overall Wall Street score is 66 out of 100, with a median price target of $1100."
  },
  {
   "question": "What does the insider trading activity suggest for Costco (COST)?",
   "answer": "Insider activity for Costco (COST) shows a 'NET SELLER' position, with total sales of $35.6 million and no reported purchases. This results in a moderate insider selling, suggesting caution among insiders."
  },
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     }
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}