{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/chipotle-cmg/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/chipotle-cmg/data.json",
 "title": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) Stock Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock: Consumer Cyclical, Restaurants. $45.6B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)",
 "published": "2026-06-27T09:26:48+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-10T11:02:04.018+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:40:31.299Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "CMG",
  "name": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Restaurants",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.chipotle.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 36.08,
  "previousClose": 36.03,
  "change": 0.05,
  "changePercent": 0.14,
  "open": 36.16,
  "high": 36.195,
  "low": 35.69,
  "volume": 68388,
  "averageVolume": 9973659,
  "marketCap": 45593009274,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 42.94,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 28.040001,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-10T11:02:01.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 33.671295,
  "eps": 1.08,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 0.937,
  "priceToSales": 3.7039454,
  "priceToBook": 20.959656,
  "revenueTtm": 12423758848,
  "grossMargin": 0.25221722040684924,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.49560001
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 57.62,
  "macd": 0.8,
  "sma50": 35,
  "sma200": 34.91,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Neutral",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 55,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 36.03,
  "analystTarget": 43.5,
  "analystCount": 34,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T11:02:01.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 36.08,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 3.6,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 35.72,
  "aggressiveEntry": 36.08,
  "stopLoss": 33.79,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.39,
  "targets": [
   36.79,
   37.51,
   38.58
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 25.25,
    "base": 40.08,
    "upside90th": 63.61
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 23.17,
    "base": 44.52,
    "upside90th": 85.56
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 22.22,
    "base": 49.46,
    "upside90th": 110.07
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 21.81,
    "base": 54.94,
    "upside90th": 138.38
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 21.73,
    "base": 61.03,
    "upside90th": 171.43
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 21.87,
    "base": 67.8,
    "upside90th": 210.17
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 22.19,
    "base": 75.31,
    "upside90th": 255.62
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 22.66,
    "base": 83.66,
    "upside90th": 308.95
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 23.25,
    "base": 92.94,
    "upside90th": 371.51
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 23.96,
    "base": 103.24,
    "upside90th": 444.81
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "CMG Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$36.16",
    "Day Range": "$35.69 to $36.20",
    "Prev Close": "$36.03",
    "Volume": "68.4K",
    "52-Week Range": "$28.04 to $42.94",
    "Market Cap": "$45.59B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+32%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "CMG Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 5 quarters, CMG beat estimates 2 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "CMG Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Chipotle Mexican Grill's trading volume has decreased by 19.8% compared to its average, suggesting a potential cooling of recent momentum. The stock is trading above its 50-day SMA of $35.00 and its 200-day SMA of $34.91, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term. However, it is currently trading below its 20-day EMA of $36.38, which could signal short-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.62, which is in the neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD is positive at 0.80, indicating bullish momentum, though its magnitude should be monitored. Key support levels are around the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, while resistance may be found near recent highs. The current price action suggests a consolidation phase after a recent upward move.",
    "Chipotle's recent Q3 earnings report showed an EPS beat of 3.13%, leading to a significant 12.5% stock price increase, reinforcing positive investor sentiment.",
    "A significant number of Wall Street analysts maintain 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings, with a median price target of $43.50, indicating confidence in future stock performance.",
    "Recent insider transactions show $23.2 million in sales with no reported purchases, signaling a degree of caution from management regarding the stock's near-term prospects.",
    "Projected revenue growth of 9.00% for the current quarter and 11.00% for the next quarter aligns with sector averages, suggesting stable business operations.",
    "The base case scenario for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) over the next 6-12 months suggests a potential move towards its analyst median target price of $43.50, representing a 20.7% upside from the current price. This outlook is supported by consistent revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment. The company's ability to continue meeting or exceeding earnings expectations will be critical in driving this appreciation. Factors that could alter this trajectory include stronger-than-anticipated earnings beats or new strategic initiatives that could push the stock towards the higher end of analyst targets. Conversely, a failure to meet growth expectations, increased competitive pressures, or a continuation of insider selling could pressure the stock downwards, potentially testing support levels around its 50-day and 200-day moving averages."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider transaction trends closely, as recent moderate selling pressure could indicate caution among management.",
     "Given the stock is trading above key moving averages but below its 20-day EMA, consider waiting for clearer short-term directional signals before initiating new positions.",
     "With a P/E ratio above the sector average, ensure that Chipotle's future growth adequately justifies its premium valuation to mitigate downside risk."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Q3 Earnings Beat",
     "text": "Chipotle's recent Q3 earnings report showed an EPS beat of 3.13%, leading to a significant 12.5% stock price increase, reinforcing positive investor sentiment.",
     "source": "Earnings Report"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Analyst Ratings",
     "text": "A significant number of Wall Street analysts maintain 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings, with a median price target of $43.50, indicating confidence in future stock performance.",
     "source": "Analyst Reports"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling",
     "text": "Recent insider transactions show $23.2 million in sales with no reported purchases, signaling a degree of caution from management regarding the stock's near-term prospects.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Revenue Growth Alignment",
     "text": "Projected revenue growth of 9.00% for the current quarter and 11.00% for the next quarter aligns with sector averages, suggesting stable business operations.",
     "source": "Revenue Estimates"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Chipotle Mexican Grill's current P/E ratio of 33.67 is above the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation relative to its peers. The company's revenue growth of 9.3% is in line with the sector average of 10.0%, suggesting steady expansion. While the stock trades at a premium, its consistent earnings performance and strong revenue estimates provide some justification for this valuation. The balance sheet strength and profitability metrics are not detailed, but the consistent revenue growth and analyst revenue estimates for upcoming quarters suggest operational efficiency. Investors should consider the premium valuation in light of the moderate insider selling and ensure that future growth adequately supports the current stock price.",
    "Chipotle Mexican Grill recently reported an EPS of $0.33 for the quarter ending July 29, 2026, beating the estimate of $0.32 by 3.13%, which coincided with a 12.5% price increase. Prior to this, the company had a mixed earnings performance, with a 0% surprise in April 2026 and a 4.17% beat in February 2026, followed by a 0% surprise in October 2025. This pattern indicates a tendency to meet or slightly exceed analyst expectations.",
    "The primary risk for Chipotle Mexican Grill is its premium valuation, with a P/E ratio higher than the sector average, which could lead to increased volatility if growth expectations are not met. Moderate insider selling, totaling $23.2 million in recent transactions, also presents a cautionary signal regarding management's short-term outlook. Also, the stock's current trading below its 20-day EMA suggests potential short-term headwinds that warrant monitoring."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "45.59B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "33.67"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "1.08"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "42.94"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "28.04"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Neutral Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Neutral",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "57.62"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.80"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "35.00"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "34.91"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.34",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.28",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.21",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.01"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "CMG Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (57.6) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$36.79",
    "TARGET 2": "$37.51",
    "TARGET 3": "$38.58",
    "STOP LOSS": "$33.79"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+7.23%",
    "Average Feb return": "-0.90%",
    "Average Mar return": "+1.55%",
    "Average Apr return": "+10.74%",
    "Average May return": "-0.16%",
    "Average Jun return": "+3.65%",
    "Average Jul return": "-0.08%",
    "Average Aug return": "+2.10%",
    "Average Sep return": "-2.94%",
    "Average Oct return": "-5.25%",
    "Average Nov return": "+6.40%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.91%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "3.60%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in CMG in September 2016 would be worth about $42,003 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CMG today could grow to about $28,615 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $123,284 and a bear case around $6,642. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "CMG Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $54.94 for CMG by 2030 in the base case, from $36.08 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $21.81. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CMG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CMG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "CMG simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$25.25",
        "$40.08",
        "$63.61"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$23.17",
        "$44.52",
        "$85.56"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$22.22",
        "$49.46",
        "$110"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$21.81",
        "$54.94",
        "$138"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$21.73",
        "$61.03",
        "$171"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$21.87",
        "$67.80",
        "$210"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$22.19",
        "$75.31",
        "$256"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$22.66",
        "$83.66",
        "$309"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$23.25",
        "$92.94",
        "$372"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$23.96",
        "$103",
        "$445"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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    {
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Compare CMG",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/cmg-vs-cava/"
    },
    {
     "text": "VTI vs VT Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vti-vs-vt/"
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/uec-vs-ccj/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "CMG Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$23.2M",
    "Insiders": "20",
    "Avg Transaction": "$1.5M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in CMG",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Feb 24, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. Director",
        "Sell",
        "347.7K",
        "$306.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 7, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. Director",
        "Sell",
        "215.4K",
        "$185.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jan 5, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. Unknown",
        "Sell",
        "75.1K",
        "$100.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 27, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. Unknown",
        "Sell",
        "58.4K",
        "$47.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 23, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "NICCOL BRIAN R Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "20.8K",
        "$36.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 5, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "GARNER CURTIS EVANDER III Chief Technology Officer",
        "Sell",
        "19.6K",
        "$29.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 23, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "NICCOL BRIAN R Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "32.4K",
        "$28.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 27, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "HARTUNG JOHN R Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "12.0K",
        "$23.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 1, 2019",
       "cells": [
        "ELLS MATTHEW STEVEN Officer and Director",
        "Sell",
        "28.2K",
        "$22.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 5, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "NICCOL BRIAN R Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "11.5K",
        "$21.8M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Chipotle+Mexican+Grill%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is currently trading at $36.03, which aligns with its fair value. Analysts have a median price target of $43.50, suggesting a 20.7% upside. However, moderate insider selling and a P/E ratio above the sector average warrant a cautious approach, leading to a 'Hold' consensus rating."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is CMG's stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) stock price is projected to be $54.87 by 2030 under base case assumptions, with a downside projection of $21.78 and an upside projection of $138.19. These are statistical outcomes, not definitive price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)?",
   "answer": "Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), with 4 Strong Buys, 20 Buys, and 10 Holds among 34 analysts. The consensus score is 71 out of 100, and the median price target is $43.50."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has Chipotle Mexican Grill performed in recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "Chipotle Mexican Grill recently reported an EPS of $0.33, beating estimates by 3.13% and leading to a 12.5% stock price increase. The company has generally met or slightly exceeded earnings expectations in recent quarters."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key risks facing Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)?",
   "answer": "Key risks for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) include its premium valuation relative to the sector average, moderate insider selling totaling $23.2 million, and potential short-term weakness indicated by trading below its 20-day EMA."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth outlook?",
   "answer": "Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to achieve approximately 9.00% revenue growth for the current quarter and 11.00% for the next quarter, with full-year 2026 revenue growth projected at 9.00%."
  },
  {
   "question": "Does Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) pay a dividend?",
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