{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/cf-industries-cf/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/cf-industries-cf/data.json",
 "title": "CF Industries (CF) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Is CF a Buy? Daily AI trade plans for CF Industries. Nitrogen fertilizer demand, clean ammonia projects, natural gas costs, and technical targets.",
 "headline": "CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)",
 "published": "2026-03-16T14:47:30+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-10T08:24:14.613+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:08.504Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "CF",
  "name": "CF Industries Holdings, Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Basic Materials",
  "industry": "Agricultural Inputs",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.cfindustries.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 138.11,
  "previousClose": 134.33,
  "change": 3.78,
  "changePercent": 2.81,
  "open": 137.88,
  "high": 139.5,
  "low": 135.71001,
  "volume": 3217500,
  "averageVolume": 2781920,
  "marketCap": 20901309134,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 141.96001,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 75.42,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-10T08:24:13.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 9.955119,
  "eps": 13.48,
  "dividendYield": 0.017378710310852787,
  "beta": 0.399,
  "priceToSales": 2.624218,
  "priceToBook": 3.539178,
  "revenueTtm": 7738999808,
  "grossMargin": 0.5153015301530153,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.29867
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 74.64,
  "macd": 4.45,
  "sma50": 122.41,
  "sma200": 108.64,
  "rsiSignal": "Overbought",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 52,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 138.11,
  "analystTarget": 123,
  "analystCount": 21,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T08:24:13.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 138.11,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 2.62,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 136.73,
  "aggressiveEntry": 138.11,
  "stopLoss": 129.85,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.03,
  "targets": [
   140.83,
   143.57,
   147.67
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 92.96,
    "base": 155.05,
    "upside90th": 258.61
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 84.43,
    "base": 174.06,
    "upside90th": 358.85
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 80.56,
    "base": 195.4,
    "upside90th": 473.98
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 78.85,
    "base": 219.36,
    "upside90th": 610.28
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 78.45,
    "base": 246.26,
    "upside90th": 773.07
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 78.96,
    "base": 276.46,
    "upside90th": 967.99
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 80.17,
    "base": 310.36,
    "upside90th": 1201.46
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 81.97,
    "base": 348.42,
    "upside90th": 1480.93
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 84.29,
    "base": 391.14,
    "upside90th": 1815.05
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 87.09,
    "base": 439.11,
    "upside90th": 2214
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "CF Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$137.88",
    "Day Range": "$135.71 to $139.50",
    "Prev Close": "$134.33",
    "Volume": "3.22M",
    "52-Week Range": "$75.42 to $141.96",
    "Market Cap": "$20.90B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-34%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "CF Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CF beat estimates 3 times. The stock rose 2 times the next day. Price tends to react positively to beats."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "CF Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Volume behavior for CF Industries has been strong, with the latest volume at 3.22 million, representing a 15.7% increase above its average volume of 2.78 million. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($122.41 and $108.64), as well as its 20-day EMA ($129.38), signaling an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74.64, indicating an overbought condition, which could signal a potential pullback. Key support levels are found at the 50-day SMA of $122.41 and the 200-day SMA of $108.64. Resistance is less clearly defined, but the current price of $138.11 is approaching previous highs. The MACD is positive at 4.45, suggesting bullish momentum, but the overbought RSI combined with heavy insider selling presents a risk of a short-term reversal.",
    "Insiders have sold a total of $76.3 million worth of stock across 73 transactions, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term prospects.",
    "The median analyst price target of $123.00 implies a -10.9% downside from the current stock price, with a majority of analysts rating the stock 'Hold'.",
    "The latest earnings report on August 5, 2026, showed an EPS miss of 15.08%, raising concerns about profitability despite previous positive surprises.",
    "The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($122.41 and $108.64), supported by strong volume, indicating positive short-to-medium term technical trends.",
    "CF Industries has reported strong year-over-year revenue growth of 17.6%, outpacing the sector average and demonstrating strong demand for its products.",
    "The base case for CF Industries over the next 6-12 months is cautious, given the significant insider selling and the 'Hold' consensus from Wall Street analysts, who collectively have a median price target of $123.00, implying a -10.9% downside from the current price. Despite strong recent revenue growth and positive technical indicators like trading above key moving averages, the overbought RSI suggests a potential for a near-term correction. Upside potential could emerge if the company demonstrates sustained earnings beats and manages to reverse the insider selling trend. Conversely, a continued slowdown in revenue growth, as indicated by next year's -13.00% projection, or further negative earnings surprises could pressure the stock lower, potentially testing support levels around the 50-day SMA of $122.41."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider transaction activity closely; the recent heavy selling pressure warrants attention.",
     "Given the overbought RSI reading, consider waiting for a technical pullback before initiating new positions.",
     "The current dividend yield of 1.52% may appeal to income-focused investors, but the overall 'Hold' consensus and insider selling suggest limited near-term upside potential."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Heavy Insider Selling Pressure",
     "text": "Insiders have sold a total of $76.3 million worth of stock across 73 transactions, indicating a potential lack of confidence in near-term prospects.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Wall Street 'Hold' Consensus and Downside Target",
     "text": "The median analyst price target of $123.00 implies a -10.9% downside from the current stock price, with a majority of analysts rating the stock 'Hold'.",
     "source": "Analyst Ratings"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Recent EPS Miss",
     "text": "The latest earnings report on August 5, 2026, showed an EPS miss of 15.08%, raising concerns about profitability despite previous positive surprises.",
     "source": "Earnings Report"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Positive Technical Momentum",
     "text": "The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($122.41 and $108.64), supported by strong volume, indicating positive short-to-medium term technical trends.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Revenue Growth",
     "text": "CF Industries has reported strong year-over-year revenue growth of 17.6%, outpacing the sector average and demonstrating strong demand for its products.",
     "source": "Fundamental Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "CF Industries Holdings, Inc. exhibits a P/E ratio of 9.96, which appears attractive relative to its sector average P/E of 15.0. The company's earnings per share (EPS) stands at $13.48. However, the median analyst price target of $123.00 suggests that the current market price of $138.11 may be overvalued by approximately 10.9% from the Street's perspective. Revenue growth has been a strong point, with a reported 17.6% year-over-year increase. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the significant insider selling raises questions about management's near-term confidence despite the seemingly favorable valuation multiples compared to sector averages.",
    "CF Industries' most recent earnings report on August 5, 2026, showed an EPS of $4.73, missing the analyst estimate of $5.57 by 15.08%, resulting in a slight 0.02% price change. Prior to this miss, the company had demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings surprises, including a significant 23.89% beat in February 2026. The forward revenue estimates suggest a slowdown, with current year growth projected at 17.00% but next year's growth anticipated to decline by 13.00%.",
    "Significant insider selling, with over $76.3 million in dispositions, presents a primary risk, indicating a potential lack of confidence from management. The stock is currently in overbought territory according to its RSI (74.64), suggesting a potential for a near-term pullback. Also, the median Wall Street price target of $123.00 implies a downside of 10.9% from the current price, indicating that analysts believe the stock is currently overvalued."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "20.90B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "9.96"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "13.48"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "1.52%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "141.96"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "75.42"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Overbought SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($122.41) above the 200-day SMA ($108.64), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages, RSI at 74.6 indicates overbought conditions; consider caution for immediate entries."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Overbought",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "74.64"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "4.45"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "122.41"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "108.64"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.02",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "-0.02",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.09",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.00"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "CF Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (74.6) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$140.83",
    "TARGET 2": "$143.57",
    "TARGET 3": "$147.67",
    "STOP LOSS": "$129.85"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.44%",
    "Average Feb return": "-0.67%",
    "Average Mar return": "-1.55%",
    "Average Apr return": "+0.39%",
    "Average May return": "+1.32%",
    "Average Jun return": "+0.58%",
    "Average Jul return": "+5.80%",
    "Average Aug return": "+2.78%",
    "Average Sep return": "+5.08%",
    "Average Oct return": "-3.64%",
    "Average Nov return": "+3.05%",
    "Average Dec return": "+3.03%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "2.62%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in CF in September 2016 would be worth about $54,140 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CF today could grow to about $31,794 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $160,307 and a bear case around $6,306. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "CF Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $219 for CF by 2030 in the base case, from $138 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $78.85. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CF's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CF's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "CF simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$92.96",
        "$155",
        "$259"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$84.43",
        "$174",
        "$359"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$80.56",
        "$195",
        "$474"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$78.85",
        "$219",
        "$610"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$78.45",
        "$246",
        "$773"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$78.96",
        "$276",
        "$968"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$80.17",
        "$310",
        "$1,201"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$81.97",
        "$348",
        "$1,481"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$84.29",
        "$391",
        "$1,815"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$87.09",
        "$439",
        "$2,214"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "KGC Kinross Gold Corporation NYSE $29.02 +0.2938%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/kgc-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. NYSE $11.83 -2.15%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/clf-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "AA Alcoa Corp NYSE $48.21 -0.1863%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/alcoa-aa/"
    },
    {
     "text": "TMC TMC The Metals Company Inc. NASDAQ $4.01 -6.31%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/tmc-metals-company-tmc/"
    },
    {
     "text": "LAC Lithium Americas Corp. NYSE $3.02 -5.33%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/lithium-americas-lac/"
    },
    {
     "text": "PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. NYSE $50.65 -4.25%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/paas-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "NEM Newmont Corporation NYSE $126.54 +0.3171%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/newmont-nem/"
    },
    {
     "text": "MOS The Mosaic Company NYSE $25.40 -3.09%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mosaic-mos/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "VUG vs VGT Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vug-vs-vgt/"
    },
    {
     "text": "ADI vs TXN Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/adi-vs-txn/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CMCSA vs DIS Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/cmcsa-vs-dis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "CF Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$76.3M",
    "Insiders": "22",
    "Avg Transaction": "$2.7M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in CF",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Feb 28, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "WILL W ANTHONY Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "1.3M",
        "$101.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "WILL W ANTHONY Former",
        "Sell",
        "237.4K",
        "$24.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 24, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "BARNARD DOUGLAS C General Counsel",
        "Sell",
        "183.5K",
        "$14.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 24, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "WILL W ANTHONY Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "102.5K",
        "$11.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 20, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "WILL W ANTHONY Director",
        "Sell",
        "111.9K",
        "$11.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 13, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "WILL W ANTHONY Director",
        "Sell",
        "81.7K",
        "$10.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 25, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "BOHN CHRISTOPHER D Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "110.7K",
        "$8.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 22, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "FROST BERT A Officer",
        "Sell",
        "115.1K",
        "$8.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 28, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "FROST BERT A Officer",
        "Sell",
        "97.5K",
        "$7.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 3, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "WILL W ANTHONY Director",
        "Sell",
        "64.3K",
        "$7.0M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=CF+Industries+Holdings%2C+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is currently trading at $138.11. While the stock shows positive technical momentum, trading above key moving averages, significant insider selling and a Wall Street consensus rating of 'Hold' with a median price target of $123 suggest caution. The RSI is also in overbought territory."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is CF Industries' stock price forecast for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, CF Industries' stock price forecast for 2030 has a base case of $219.36, a downside projection of $78.85, and an upside projection of $610.28. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not definitive price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the dividend yield for CF Industries?",
   "answer": "CF Industries Holdings, Inc. offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.52%, with a dividend rate of $2.10."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has CF Industries performed in recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "CF Industries recently missed its EPS estimate in August 2026 by 15.08%. However, prior quarters showed positive earnings surprises, indicating a mixed recent performance."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the main risks facing CF Industries?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for CF Industries include substantial insider selling totaling over $76.3 million, an overbought technical condition indicated by its RSI, and a Wall Street consensus rating of 'Hold' with a median price target suggesting a potential downside."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does CF Industries compare to its sector averages?",
   "answer": "CF Industries' P/E ratio of 9.96 is below the sector average of 15.0, suggesting a potentially more attractive valuation. However, its revenue growth of 17.6% is significantly above the sector average of 8.0%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the outlook for CF Industries' revenue growth?",
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}