{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/carvana-cvna/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/carvana-cvna/data.json",
 "title": "Carvana (CVNA) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock: Consumer Cyclical, Auto & Truck Dealerships. $77.9B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Carvana Co. (CVNA)",
 "published": "2026-06-25T09:28:15+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T19:16:44.87+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:29.688Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "CVNA",
  "name": "Carvana Co.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
  "industry": "Auto & Truck Dealerships",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.carvana.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 69.66,
  "previousClose": 70.28,
  "change": -0.62,
  "changePercent": -0.88,
  "open": 71.53,
  "high": 71.88,
  "low": 69.425,
  "volume": 220130,
  "averageVolume": 5191073,
  "marketCap": 77902833755,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 97.378,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 54.464,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T19:16:42.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 38.82873,
  "eps": 1.81,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 3.497,
  "priceToSales": 3.1089005,
  "priceToBook": 12.545519,
  "revenueTtm": 25058000896,
  "grossMargin": 0.1876355748373102,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.58773
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 49.33,
  "macd": 0.75,
  "sma50": 69.34,
  "sma200": 73.2,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 55,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 69.66,
  "analystTarget": 83,
  "analystCount": 24,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T19:16:42.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 69.66,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 3.52,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 68.96,
  "aggressiveEntry": 69.66,
  "stopLoss": 65.31,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.3,
  "targets": [
   71.03,
   72.41,
   74.48
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 43.35,
    "base": 82.28,
    "upside90th": 156.16
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 39.26,
    "base": 97.18,
    "upside90th": 240.51
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 37.83,
    "base": 114.77,
    "upside90th": 348.23
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 37.63,
    "base": 135.56,
    "upside90th": 488.34
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 38.21,
    "base": 160.11,
    "upside90th": 670.97
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 39.36,
    "base": 189.1,
    "upside90th": 908.62
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 40.99,
    "base": 223.35,
    "upside90th": 1217
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 43.07,
    "base": 263.8,
    "upside90th": 1615.9
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 45.57,
    "base": 311.57,
    "upside90th": 2130.34
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 48.51,
    "base": 368,
    "upside90th": 2791.87
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "CVNA Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$71.53",
    "Day Range": "$69.43 to $71.88",
    "Prev Close": "$70.28",
    "Volume": "220.1K",
    "52-Week Range": "$54.46 to $97.38",
    "Market Cap": "$77.90B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+52%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "CVNA Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, CVNA beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "CVNA Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Carvana's trading volume has been significantly below its average, down 95.8% recently, indicating a lack of strong conviction from market participants. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is neutral at 49.33, offering no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions. Key support levels are challenged as the stock trades above its 50-day SMA ($69.34), while resistance is present at the 200-day SMA. The MACD is positive at 0.75, but its proximity to zero suggests waning momentum. The current price action, coupled with low volume, points to a period of consolidation or potential further downside if selling pressure intensifies.",
    "Insiders have sold over $2.1 billion worth of shares versus only $1.5 million in purchases, indicating a strong heavy insider selling verdict and potentially signaling a lack of confidence in the current stock valuation.",
    "Carvana's stock is trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting bearish short-to-medium term technical momentum and potential for further price declines.",
    "The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with current year estimates at $28.9 billion (42.00% YoY increase), providing a fundamental tailwind if execution remains strong.",
    "A majority of 24 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $83.00, suggesting an implied upside of 19.2% from the current price.",
    "While Carvana has consistently beaten EPS estimates, the stock price has reacted negatively to recent earnings reports, indicating that market sentiment may be driven by factors beyond short-term earnings beats.",
    "Carvana's outlook is cautiously neutral, with the stock currently trading at its fair value and facing headwinds from significant insider selling and bearish technical indicators. While the company is expected to continue its strong revenue growth trajectory, with current year estimates at $28.9 billion (42.00% YoY increase), the heavy disposition of shares by insiders suggests management's lack of conviction at current levels. The median Wall Street price target of $83.00 offers a potential upside of 19.2%, but this is contingent on overcoming the negative insider sentiment and improving technical momentum. Key catalysts for a bullish shift would include a significant reduction in insider selling, a clear break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and sustained positive earnings surprises that translate into stock price appreciation. Conversely, continued insider selling or a failure to meet revenue growth expectations could lead to a retest of lower support levels."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the current heavy selling pressure from insiders is a significant bearish signal that could outweigh positive revenue growth.",
     "Given the stock is trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), consider waiting for a confirmed technical breakout above resistance levels before initiating new long positions.",
     "With a fair value at the current price, investors should exercise caution and focus on risk management, potentially setting tighter stop-losses given the bearish technicals and insider selling."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Heavy Insider Selling Pressure",
     "text": "Insiders have sold over $2.1 billion worth of shares versus only $1.5 million in purchases, indicating a strong heavy insider selling verdict and potentially signaling a lack of confidence in the current stock valuation.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Below Key Moving Averages",
     "text": "Carvana's stock is trading above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting bearish short-to-medium term technical momentum and potential for further price declines.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Revenue Growth Projections",
     "text": "The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with current year estimates at $28.9 billion (42.00% YoY increase), providing a fundamental tailwind if execution remains strong.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Wall Street Analyst Sentiment",
     "text": "A majority of 24 analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, with a median price target of $83.00, suggesting an implied upside of 19.2% from the current price.",
     "source": "Wall Street Analyst Ratings"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Mixed Earnings Performance Reaction",
     "text": "While Carvana has consistently beaten EPS estimates, the stock price has reacted negatively to recent earnings reports, indicating that market sentiment may be driven by factors beyond short-term earnings beats.",
     "source": "Earnings Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Carvana's valuation appears stretched, with a P/E ratio of 38.83 and EPS of $1.81, trading at a premium compared to the sector average P/E of 25.5. While the company is growing revenue at an exceptional rate of 52.4% year-over-year, its current valuation does not offer significant upside based on its fair value of $69.66. The strong revenue growth estimates for the current and next year, projecting over 40% and 24% respectively, indicate continued expansion potential. Profitability metrics are positive, with a reported EPS of $1.81, but the high P/E ratio suggests that future growth is already priced in. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the significant insider selling raises concerns about management's confidence in the current valuation. Investors should monitor forward-looking revenue growth and profitability trends against the current premium valuation.",
    "Carvana's recent earnings reports show a mixed performance with a tendency to beat EPS estimates. The latest quarter ending July 29, 2026, saw an EPS beat of 10.53% ($0.42 actual vs. $0.38 estimate), though the stock reacted negatively with a -7.36% price change. Prior quarters also showed positive surprises, including a significant 250% EPS beat in February 2026, which was met with a -7.95% stock price decline. This pattern suggests that despite beating expectations, the market may be pricing in future growth or reacting to other factors.",
    "The most significant risk for Carvana is the heavy insider selling, with over $2.1 billion in sales, indicating a lack of confidence from management at current price levels. The stock is also trading below key moving averages (50-day and 200-day SMA), suggesting bearish technical momentum. Also, the current valuation appears stretched relative to its fair value and sector averages, offering limited upside potential."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "77.90B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "38.83"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "1.81"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "97.38"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "54.46"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Neutral RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $69.34, 200-day: $73.20), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "49.33"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.75"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "69.34"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "73.20"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.54",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.51",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.46",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.07"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "CVNA Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (49.3) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$71.03",
    "TARGET 2": "$72.41",
    "TARGET 3": "$74.48",
    "STOP LOSS": "$65.31"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+12.37%",
    "Average Feb return": "+5.87%",
    "Average Mar return": "-0.60%",
    "Average Apr return": "+6.39%",
    "Average May return": "+7.11%",
    "Average Jun return": "+28.95%",
    "Average Jul return": "+15.82%",
    "Average Aug return": "+12.86%",
    "Average Sep return": "-9.71%",
    "Average Oct return": "-10.34%",
    "Average Nov return": "+5.99%",
    "Average Dec return": "-3.73%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "3.52%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in CVNA in April 2017 would be worth about $316,577 today, compared with about $31,831 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in CVNA today could grow to about $52,828 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $400,785 and a bear case around $6,963. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "CVNA Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $136 for CVNA by 2030 in the base case, from $69.66 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $37.63. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on CVNA's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using CVNA's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. CVNA is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "CVNA simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$43.35",
        "$82.28",
        "$156"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$39.26",
        "$97.18",
        "$241"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$37.83",
        "$115",
        "$348"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$37.63",
        "$136",
        "$488"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$38.21",
        "$160",
        "$671"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$39.36",
        "$189",
        "$909"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$40.99",
        "$223",
        "$1,217"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$43.07",
        "$264",
        "$1,616"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$45.57",
        "$312",
        "$2,130"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$48.51",
        "$368",
        "$2,792"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/lvs-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "BIGG Big Tree Group Inc. OTC $0.0001 +0.00%",
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    {
     "text": "DKNG DraftKings Inc. NASDAQ $24.73 +4.28%",
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    {
     "text": "TSLA Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ $367.81 -0.0951%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/tesla-tsla/"
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   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vug-vs-qqq/"
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "CVNA Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$1.5M",
    "Sold": "$2.1B",
    "Insiders": "14",
    "Avg Transaction": "$8.3M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in CVNA",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jul 10, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "200.0K",
        "$70.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 14, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "194.6K",
        "$68.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 6, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "JENKINS MARK W Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "268.5K",
        "$61.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 16, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "150.0K",
        "$52.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 18, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "150.0K",
        "$52.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 6, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "150.0K",
        "$51.9M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 11, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "122.5K",
        "$42.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 1, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "106.6K",
        "$39.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 24, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "200.0K",
        "$39.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 22, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "GARCIA ERNEST C II Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security",
        "Sell",
        "200.0K",
        "$38.6M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Carvana+Co.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is Carvana's current stock price and fair value?",
   "answer": "Carvana Co. (CVNA) is currently trading at $69.66, which is also its calculated fair value, indicating that the stock is neither undervalued nor overvalued based on current metrics."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus rating for Carvana stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for Carvana is 'Buy', with 24 analysts covering the stock. The median price target is $83.00, suggesting a potential upside of 19.2% from the current price."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the main risks facing Carvana Co.?",
   "answer": "The primary risks for Carvana include substantial insider selling totaling over $2.1 billion, neutral technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages, and a valuation that appears to be at its fair value, limiting immediate upside."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has Carvana performed in its recent earnings reports?",
   "answer": "Carvana has generally beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a 10.53% beat in the latest report. However, the stock price reaction to these earnings has been mixed, with a notable decline following the most recent positive surprise."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the revenue growth outlook for Carvana?",
   "answer": "Carvana is projected to experience strong revenue growth, with current year estimates indicating a 42.00% increase year-over-year to $28.9 billion, and next year's growth estimated at 24.00%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the technical outlook for Carvana stock based on moving averages?",
   "answer": "Technically, Carvana is showing weakness as it trades above its 50-day SMA ($69.34) but below its 200-day SMA ($73.20), suggesting a bearish short-to-medium term trend."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Carvana's stock price prediction for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Carvana's stock price projection for 2030 has a base case of $135.56, a downside case of $37.63, and an upside case of $488.34. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees."
  }
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     "name": "What is Carvana's stock price prediction for 2030?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Carvana's stock price projection for 2030 has a base case of $135.56, a downside case of $37.63, and an upside case of $488.34. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees."
     }
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}