{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/bhp-bhp-group/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/bhp-bhp-group/data.json",
 "title": "BHP Group Ltd. (BHP) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Is BHP Group (BHP) a Buy or Sell after record FY26 copper led earnings? Get the AI trade setup, key support levels and risk analysis. Updated daily.",
 "headline": "BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored (BHP)",
 "published": "2026-08-18T09:12:07+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T12:17:51.902+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:01:33.211Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "BHP",
  "name": "BHP Group Ltd. Sponsored",
  "type": "American Depositary Receipt",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Basic Materials",
  "industry": "Other Industrial Metals & Mining",
  "country": "Australia",
  "website": "https://www.bhp.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 87.35,
  "previousClose": 92.25,
  "change": -4.9,
  "changePercent": -5.31,
  "open": 87.78,
  "high": 88.26,
  "low": 86.59,
  "volume": 3675600,
  "averageVolume": 2315140,
  "marketCap": 221998007302,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 98.71,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 51.83,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T12:17:50.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 23.898964,
  "eps": 3.86,
  "dividendYield": 0.04533486055152269,
  "beta": 0.85,
  "priceToSales": 3.9899802,
  "priceToBook": 4.6014566,
  "revenueTtm": 58759999488,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.24002
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 35.3,
  "macd": 0.76,
  "sma50": 87.63,
  "sma200": 77.07,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 44,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 76.5,
  "analystTarget": 76.5,
  "analystCount": 8,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Hold",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T12:17:50.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 87.35,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 2.17,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 86.48,
  "aggressiveEntry": 87.35,
  "stopLoss": 83.66,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.26,
  "targets": [
   89.07,
   90.8,
   93.39
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 63.24,
    "base": 95.78,
    "upside90th": 145.07
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 58.39,
    "base": 105.03,
    "upside90th": 188.92
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 56.12,
    "base": 115.17,
    "upside90th": 236.37
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 55.06,
    "base": 126.29,
    "upside90th": 289.69
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 54.74,
    "base": 138.48,
    "upside90th": 350.36
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 54.93,
    "base": 151.85,
    "upside90th": 419.78
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 55.52,
    "base": 166.51,
    "upside90th": 499.37
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 56.44,
    "base": 182.59,
    "upside90th": 590.73
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 57.63,
    "base": 200.22,
    "upside90th": 695.57
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 59.08,
    "base": 219.55,
    "upside90th": 815.88
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "BHP Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$87.78",
    "Day Range": "$86.59 to $88.26",
    "Prev Close": "$92.25",
    "Volume": "3.68M",
    "52-Week Range": "$51.83 to $98.71",
    "Market Cap": "$222.00B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a notable discount to sector peers (-21%), which may indicate undervaluation or specific company headwinds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "BHP Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, BHP beat estimates 2 times. However, the stock fell 1 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "BHP Analysis",
   "text": [
    "BHP Group Ltd. is currently trading below its 50-day SMA ($87.63) but above its 200-day SMA ($77.07), indicating a bearish technical trend. The 50-day SMA is at $87.63 and the 200-day SMA is at $77.07, with the current price of $87.35 positioned between them but leaning towards the lower end of its recent trading range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.3, signaling bearish momentum, and the MACD is slightly positive at 0.76, suggesting a potential for a short-term shift but not a strong bullish reversal. Volume has been above average recently, with the latest volume at 3.68 million compared to an average of 2.32 million, indicating increased trading activity. Key support levels are not clearly defined by the moving averages, as the price is hovering near the 50-day SMA resistance. The 52-week high is not provided, but the current price action suggests a lack of immediate upward momentum. The stochastic indicator is at 6.27, indicating oversold conditions, which could precede a bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish. Investors should watch for a decisive break above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential shift in trend, while a failure to do so could lead to further downside pressure.",
    "Insiders have made net purchases totaling $92.3K, indicating a moderate buy signal and potential confidence in the company's future prospects.",
    "The median analyst price target of $76.50 is 12.4% below the current trading price of $87.35, suggesting potential downside risk.",
    "Revenue is projected to decline by 2.00% in the current year and an additional 1.00% in the next year, indicating potential headwinds for top-line growth.",
    "The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($87.63) but above its 200-day SMA ($77.07), with RSI indicating bearish momentum, suggesting a potential for further price declines.",
    "The base case outlook for BHP Group Ltd. over the next 6-12 months suggests continued pressure, given the current bearish technical momentum and analyst price targets below the current trading level. The median target of $76.50 implies a potential downside of 12.4% from the current price of $87.35. Projected revenue declines for the current and next fiscal years further dampen the near-term outlook, indicating that the company may face challenges in growing its top line amidst prevailing market conditions. However, a shift in the outlook could be triggered by a significant recovery in commodity prices or a positive surprise in earnings that counters the current revenue contraction trend. The moderate insider buying activity, with net purchases totaling $92.3K, could signal underlying confidence from management. A sustained break above the 50-day SMA at $87.63 would be a key technical indicator to watch for a potential reversal of the bearish trend, while any positive developments in global demand for basic materials could also strengthen the stock's performance."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor global commodity prices closely, as they are a primary driver of BHP Group Ltd.'s revenue and profitability.",
     "Given the bearish technical momentum, consider waiting for a confirmed break above the 50-day SMA ($87.63) before initiating new long positions.",
     "The moderate insider buying suggests some internal confidence, but it is overshadowed by analyst price targets below the current market price and projected revenue declines."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Insider Net Buying Activity",
     "text": "Insiders have made net purchases totaling $92.3K, indicating a moderate buy signal and potential confidence in the company's future prospects.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Analyst Price Targets Below Current Price",
     "text": "The median analyst price target of $76.50 is 12.4% below the current trading price of $87.35, suggesting potential downside risk.",
     "source": "Wall Street Analysts"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Projected Revenue Contraction",
     "text": "Revenue is projected to decline by 2.00% in the current year and an additional 1.00% in the next year, indicating potential headwinds for top-line growth.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Bearish Technical Momentum",
     "text": "The stock is trading below its 50-day SMA ($87.63) but above its 200-day SMA ($77.07), with RSI indicating bearish momentum, suggesting a potential for further price declines.",
     "source": "Technical Analysis"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "BHP Group Ltd. presents a mixed fundamental picture, with a P/E ratio of 23.90 that is below the Basic Materials sector median of 30.20, suggesting it may be attractively valued on this metric. However, this valuation is juxtaposed against projected revenue declines, with current year revenue expected to contract by 2.00% and next year by an additional 1.00%. The company's Return on Equity (ROE) is not explicitly provided, but the sector average ROE is 17.9%, which serves as a benchmark for profitability efficiency. The current price-to-sales ratio is not provided, but the sector average is 4.2. While the company's health score is a solid 4 out of 5, indicating good financial standing, the forward-looking revenue estimates raise concerns about future growth prospects. The dividend yield of approximately 3.94% offers some income to investors, but the sustainability of this yield could be impacted by declining revenues. The market capitalization of $222 billion places it as a large-cap entity within its sector. Investors should weigh the current valuation discount against the anticipated revenue contraction and monitor commodity price trends that heavily influence BHP's top-line performance.",
    "BHP Group Ltd. has demonstrated mixed earnings performance in recent quarters. The most recent reported quarter (April 27, 2026) showed an EPS of $1.28, beating the estimate of $1.21 by 5.79%, though the stock experienced a 2.15% decline. Prior to that, on January 28, 2026, the company reported an EPS of $3.33, exceeding the estimate of $3.09 by 7.77% and resulting in a 1.71% stock price increase. However, the company missed estimates in the November 4, 2025, quarter with an EPS of $3.01 against an estimate of $3.16, leading to a 1.97% stock price gain, and was in line with estimates in the September 30, 2025, quarter with no price change. This pattern suggests inconsistent earnings beats and misses, with recent price reactions not always aligning with the surprise percentage.",
    "BHP Group Ltd. faces significant risks stemming from projected revenue declines for the current and next fiscal years, indicating potential headwinds in its core business operations. Also, the stock is currently trading below key moving averages, signaling bearish technical momentum and a potential for further price depreciation. The median analyst price target of $76.50 is notably below the current trading price of $87.35, suggesting that Wall Street analysts anticipate a downside correction."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "222.00B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "23.90"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "3.86"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "3.94%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "98.71"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "51.83"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Neutral RSI Bearish SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($87.63) above the 200-day SMA ($77.07), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bearish",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "35.30"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.76"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "87.63"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "77.07"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.53",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.52",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.19",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.47"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "BHP Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (35.3) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$89.07",
    "TARGET 2": "$90.80",
    "TARGET 3": "$93.39",
    "STOP LOSS": "$83.66"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+3.48%",
    "Average Feb return": "-1.38%",
    "Average Mar return": "-3.51%",
    "Average Apr return": "-0.44%",
    "Average May return": "+4.98%",
    "Average Jun return": "-1.14%",
    "Average Jul return": "+3.99%",
    "Average Aug return": "-0.81%",
    "Average Sep return": "+0.30%",
    "Average Oct return": "-2.59%",
    "Average Nov return": "+4.36%",
    "Average Dec return": "+4.50%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "2.17%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in BHP in September 2016 would be worth about $31,567 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in BHP today could grow to about $25,134 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $93,403 and a bear case around $6,763. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "BHP Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $126 for BHP by 2030 in the base case, from $87.35 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $55.06. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on BHP's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using BHP's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "BHP simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$63.24",
        "$95.78",
        "$145"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$58.39",
        "$105",
        "$189"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$56.12",
        "$115",
        "$236"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$55.06",
        "$126",
        "$290"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$54.74",
        "$138",
        "$350"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$54.93",
        "$152",
        "$420"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$55.52",
        "$167",
        "$499"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$56.44",
        "$183",
        "$591"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$57.63",
        "$200",
        "$696"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$59.08",
        "$220",
        "$816"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "LUGDF Lundin Gold Inc OTC $66.90 -4.21%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/lugdf-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. NYSE $138.11 +2.81%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/cf-industries-cf/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. NYSE $11.83 -2.15%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/clf-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "WWR Westwater Resources Inc. NYSE $0.5710 -1.55%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/wwr-westwater-resources/"
    },
    {
     "text": "MP MP Materials Corp. NYSE $51.32 -5.49%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/mp-materials-mp/"
    },
    {
     "text": "AA Alcoa Corp NYSE $48.21 -0.1863%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/alcoa-aa/"
    },
    {
     "text": "DOW Dow Inc. NYSE $28.94 -2.38%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/dow-inc-dow/"
    },
    {
     "text": "WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. NYSE $152.62 -2.64%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/wpm-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "UNH vs CI Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/unh-vs-ci/"
    },
    {
     "text": "RIVN vs LCID Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/rivn-vs-lcid/"
    },
    {
     "text": "LMT vs RTX Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/lmt-vs-rtx/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "BHP Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$92.3K",
    "Sold": "None",
    "Insiders": "1",
    "Avg Transaction": "$46.2K"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in BHP",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Apr 7, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "Goldberg (Gary J)",
        "Buy",
        "1.0K",
        "$42.6K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 25, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "Goldberg (Gary J)",
        "Buy",
        "1.0K",
        "$49.8K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 18, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "Goldberg (Gary J)",
        "Buy",
        "1.0K",
        "$52.3K"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&amp;company=BHP+Group+Ltd.+Sponsored&amp;type=4&amp;dateb=&amp;owner=include&amp;count=40&amp;search_text=&amp;action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is BHP Group Ltd.'s current stock price and consensus rating?",
   "answer": "As of September 11, 2026, BHP Group Ltd. is trading at $87.35 per share. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Hold', supported by a consensus score of 44 out of 100."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key risks facing BHP Group Ltd. shareholders?",
   "answer": "Key risks include projected revenue declines for the current and next fiscal years, bearish technical momentum indicated by prices trading below moving averages, and a median analyst price target that is below the current stock price."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does BHP Group Ltd.'s valuation compare to its sector averages?",
   "answer": "BHP's P/E ratio of 23.90 is below the Basic Materials sector median of 30.20. However, the sector average ROE is 17.9%, and the projected revenue contraction for BHP warrants caution despite the lower P/E."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is BHP Group Ltd.'s projected revenue growth for the next two years?",
   "answer": "For the current year, revenue is estimated to grow by -2.00% to $57.7 billion. For the next year, revenue growth is projected to be -1.00% to $56.9 billion."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the outlook for BHP Group Ltd. based on analyst price targets?",
   "answer": "The median analyst price target for BHP Group Ltd. is $76.50, which is approximately 12.4% below the current trading price of $87.35. This suggests analysts anticipate a downside movement in the stock price."
  },
  {
   "question": "Are there any recent insider transactions for BHP Group Ltd. that indicate management sentiment?",
   "answer": "Yes, insiders are net buyers, with $92.3K in total purchases and $0 in total sales in recent filings, indicating a moderate buy signal from management."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is BHP Group Ltd.'s long-range projection for 2030?",
   "answer": "The long-range projection for BHP Group Ltd. in 2030 indicates a base case price of $126.29, with a downside price of $55.06 and an upside price of $289.69. These are outcomes from a Monte Carlo simulation and not guaranteed price targets."
  }
 ],
 "related": {
  "peopleAlsoWatch": [
   {
    "ticker": "LUGDF",
    "name": "Lundin Gold Inc OTC",
    "price": "$66.90",
    "change": "-4.21%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/lugdf-stock-analysis/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "CF",
    "name": "CF Industries Holdings, Inc. NYSE",
    "price": "$138.11",
    "change": "+2.81%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/cf-industries-cf/"
   },
   {
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