{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/arm-holdings-arm/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/arm-holdings-arm/data.json",
 "title": "Arm Holdings (ARM) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Arm Holdings (ARM) stock: Technology, Semiconductors. $331.4B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Arm Holdings (ARM)",
 "published": "2026-05-27T15:44:25+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-27T05:46:20.514+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-27T13:24:41.373Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ARM",
  "name": "Arm Holdings",
  "type": "American Depositary Receipt",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Technology",
  "industry": "Semiconductors",
  "country": "United Kingdom",
  "website": "https://www.arm.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 310.32,
  "previousClose": 306.34,
  "change": 3.98,
  "changePercent": 1.3,
  "open": 318.5,
  "high": 325.48001,
  "low": 310.079987,
  "volume": 6994400,
  "averageVolume": 7004690,
  "marketCap": 331421326612,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 452.70001,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 100.019997,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-27T05:46:20.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 319.10416,
  "eps": 0.96,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": 3.89,
  "priceToSales": 63.454365,
  "priceToBook": 37.908672,
  "revenueTtm": 5155999744,
  "grossMargin": 0.9720713731574864,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.13352999
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 65.86,
  "macd": 14.71,
  "sma50": 264.32,
  "sma200": 211.83,
  "rsiSignal": "Bullish",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 55,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": 310.32,
  "analystTarget": 278.6,
  "analystCount": 43,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-27T05:46:20.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 310.32001,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 5.12,
   "risk": "volatile"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 307.22,
  "aggressiveEntry": 310.32,
  "stopLoss": 283.65,
  "stopLossPercent": 7.67,
  "targets": [
   316.43,
   322.58,
   331.79
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 192.02,
    "base": 364.45,
    "upside90th": 691.73
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 172.94,
    "base": 428.03,
    "upside90th": 1059.35
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 165.68,
    "base": 502.69,
    "upside90th": 1525.19
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 163.89,
    "base": 590.38,
    "upside90th": 2126.79
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 165.45,
    "base": 693.37,
    "upside90th": 2905.7
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 169.48,
    "base": 814.32,
    "upside90th": 3912.7
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 175.52,
    "base": 956.37,
    "upside90th": 5211.06
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 183.36,
    "base": 1123.19,
    "upside90th": 6880.1
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 192.93,
    "base": 1319.12,
    "upside90th": 9019.31
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 204.21,
    "base": 1549.23,
    "upside90th": 11753.44
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ARM Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$318.50",
    "Day Range": "$310.08 to $325.48",
    "Prev Close": "$306.34",
    "Volume": "6.99M",
    "52-Week Range": "$100.02 to $452.70",
    "Market Cap": "$331.42B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+839%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ARM Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 4 quarters, ARM beat estimates 4 times. However, the stock fell 2 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ARM Analysis",
   "text": [
    "ARM Holdings is trading above its 50-day SMA of $264.32 and its 200-day SMA of $211.83, indicating a strong upward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65.86, signaling bullish momentum. The MACD is positive at 14.71, further supporting the bullish technical picture. The nearest key support level is the 50-day SMA at $264.32, with resistance likely near previous highs. Volume has been slightly below average recently, suggesting a pause in strong buying conviction. The overall chart structure points to continued upward momentum in the short term, but the high valuation and significant insider selling could cap further gains.",
    "ARM Holdings is projected to achieve revenue growth of 23.00% next year, driven by demand in AI and mobile markets, which could support the current valuation if met.",
    "Insiders have sold $69 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a potential lack of confidence in the current stock price or future prospects.",
    "The median Wall Street price target of $278.60 is 10.2% below the current stock price of $310.32, suggesting analysts believe the stock is overvalued.",
    "ARM Holdings recently beat EPS estimates for the quarter ending June 2026 by 12.5%, leading to a positive price reaction.",
    "ARM Holdings is expected to maintain its strong revenue growth trajectory, with current year estimates at $6 billion and next year at $8.2 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 23.00% and 36.00% respectively. The company's technology is fundamental to the AI revolution and mobile computing, providing a strong long-term demand driver. However, the current stock price of $310.32, coupled with a median analyst target of $278.60, suggests that the market may have already priced in much of this future growth, leading to a potential for stagnation or decline if growth falters or competitive pressures intensify. Upside potential could materialize if ARM secures new major partnerships or if its chip designs achieve even greater market penetration than anticipated, particularly in emerging AI hardware markets. Conversely, a slowdown in global smartphone sales, increased competition from rivals like Intel or AMD in specific segments, or a broader market downturn could pressure the stock. The significant insider selling also presents a risk that could weigh on investor sentiment."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor upcoming earnings reports closely for any signs of slowing growth or increased competition, which could exacerbate the stock's high valuation.",
     "Given the heavy insider selling and a Wall Street price target below the current price, consider implementing a tighter stop-loss strategy to manage downside risk.",
     "The stock's strong technical momentum should be viewed with caution due to the significant valuation premium and insider selling activity."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Continued Strong Revenue Growth",
     "text": "ARM Holdings is projected to achieve revenue growth of 23.00% next year, driven by demand in AI and mobile markets, which could support the current valuation if met.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Heavy Insider Selling",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $69 million worth of stock with no reported purchases, indicating a potential lack of confidence in the current stock price or future prospects.",
     "source": "Insider Transaction Data"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Analyst Price Target Below Current Price",
     "text": "The median Wall Street price target of $278.60 is 10.2% below the current stock price of $310.32, suggesting analysts believe the stock is overvalued.",
     "source": "Wall Street Price Target Data"
    },
    {
     "type": "Neutral",
     "title": "Positive Earnings Surprise",
     "text": "ARM Holdings recently beat EPS estimates for the quarter ending June 2026 by 12.5%, leading to a positive price reaction.",
     "source": "Earnings Report"
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "AMD",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/advanced-micro-devices-amd/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "ARM Holdings exhibits strong fundamental performance with a profit margin of 20.25% and a return on equity of 13.35%, aligning with the sector median ROE of 13.4%. The company's revenue growth of 22.4% is also impressive, though slightly below the sector median of 24.1%. However, the stock's valuation is a significant concern, with a P/E ratio of 319.10 and a price-to-sales ratio of 63.45 substantially higher than the sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively. This premium valuation is not supported by the current analyst median price target of $278.60, which suggests a -10.2% downside. The company's low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 indicates a strong balance sheet, but the high multiples suggest that future growth expectations are already heavily priced in.",
    "ARM Holdings most recently reported earnings for the quarter ending June 2026, with an actual EPS of $0.45 against an estimate of $0.40, representing a 12.5% beat and a 7.4% price increase. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history, with a significant beat in the quarter to June 2026 (80% surprise) but a miss in the quarter to March 2026. Revenue growth for the current quarter is estimated at +21.00% year-over-year, with expectations for continued strong growth of +23.00% next quarter and +36.00% next year, indicating a positive forward outlook.",
    "The primary risk for ARM Holdings is its extremely high valuation, with P/E and price-to-sales ratios significantly exceeding sector averages, suggesting a potential for a sharp correction if growth expectations are not met. Heavy insider selling, with $69 million in dispositions and no reported purchases, signals a lack of confidence from management. Also, the median Wall Street price target of $278.60 is below the current trading price, indicating that analysts believe the stock is currently overvalued."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "331.42B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "319.10"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "0.9600"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "452.70"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "100.02"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bullish RSI Bullish SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($264.32) above the 200-day SMA ($211.83), price action is firmly bullish above key moving averages."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bullish",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "65.86"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "14.71"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "264.32"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "211.83"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.61",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.69",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.25",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.13"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ARM Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (65.9) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$316.43",
    "TARGET 2": "$322.58",
    "TARGET 3": "$331.79",
    "STOP LOSS": "$283.65"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Limited data: Based on ~2 years of trading history. Patterns may not be statistically significant."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+6.28%",
    "Average Feb return": "+34.60%",
    "Average Mar return": "-0.64%",
    "Average Apr return": "+7.33%",
    "Average May return": "+33.90%",
    "Average Jun return": "+14.58%",
    "Average Jul return": "-15.92%",
    "Average Aug return": "+4.73%",
    "Average Sep return": "+2.22%",
    "Average Oct return": "+3.69%",
    "Average Nov return": "-0.99%",
    "Average Dec return": "-4.51%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "5.12%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ARM in September 2023 would be worth about $48,800 today, compared with about $17,127 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ARM today could grow to about $49,924 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $378,752 and a bear case around $6,580. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ARM Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $590 for ARM by 2030 in the base case, from $310 today (1.9x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $164. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ARM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ARM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. ARM is highly volatile, so its upside column reaches an extreme multiple; treat it as a statistical tail, not an expectation. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ARM simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$192",
        "$364",
        "$692"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$173",
        "$428",
        "$1,059"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$166",
        "$503",
        "$1,525"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$164",
        "$590",
        "$2,127"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$165",
        "$693",
        "$2,906"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$169",
        "$814",
        "$3,913"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$176",
        "$956",
        "$5,211"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$183",
        "$1,123",
        "$6,880"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$193",
        "$1,319",
        "$9,019"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$204",
        "$1,549",
        "$11,753"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. NASDAQ $238.08 +3.44%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/nxp-semiconductors-nxpi/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. NASDAQ $252.13 -2.90%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/crowdstrike-crwd/"
    },
    {
     "text": "TXN Texas Instruments Inc. NASDAQ $278.07 +2.74%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/texas-instruments-txn/"
    },
    {
     "text": "GLW Corning Incorporated NYSE $156.74 +1.68%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/glw-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "AKAM Akamai Technologies Inc NASDAQ $113.94 +3.20%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/akamai-akam/"
    },
    {
     "text": "PAYX Paychex Inc. NASDAQ $101.37 -0.22%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/payx-stock-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "GFS GlobalFoundries Inc. NASDAQ $49.00 +4.14%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/globalfoundries-gfs/"
    },
    {
     "text": "KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. NYSE $362.15 +1.29%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/keys-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Compare ARM",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "AMD vs ARM Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/amd-vs-arm/"
    },
    {
     "text": "CMCSA vs DIS Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/cmcsa-vs-dis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "V vs MA Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/v-vs-ma/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ARM Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "None",
    "Sold": "$69.0M",
    "Insiders": "11",
    "Avg Transaction": "$3.8M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ARM",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "May 11, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "COLLINS SPENCER Officer",
        "Sell",
        "52.0K",
        "$11.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 19, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "COLLINS SPENCER Officer",
        "Sell",
        "40.9K",
        "$8.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 20, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "CHILD JASON E Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "31.9K",
        "$7.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 26, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "HAAS RENE A Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "31.9K",
        "$5.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "GRISENTHWAITE RICHARD ROY Officer",
        "Sell",
        "24.3K",
        "$5.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "BARTELS LAURA KATHLEEN Officer",
        "Sell",
        "11.3K",
        "$4.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 22, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "CHILD JASON E Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "21.3K",
        "$3.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 20, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "ABBEY WILLIAM Officer",
        "Sell",
        "16.0K",
        "$3.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 25, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "CHILD JASON E Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "21.3K",
        "$3.2M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Aug 27, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "CHILD JASON E Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "10.4K",
        "$2.7M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Arm+Holdings&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is ARM's stock price prediction for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, ARM's projected base case price for 2030 is $590.38, with a downside projection of $163.89 and an upside projection of $2126.79. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is ARM Holdings stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "ARM Holdings is currently trading at $310.32. While it exhibits strong technical momentum and revenue growth, the high valuation, significant insider selling, and a Wall Street median price target below the current price suggest caution. The consensus rating is Hold."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical levels for ARM stock?",
   "answer": "ARM Holdings is trading above its 50-day SMA of $264.32 and its 200-day SMA of $211.83. The RSI is at 65.86, indicating bullish momentum. The nearest support is the 50-day SMA, while resistance is near previous highs."
  },
  {
   "question": "How does ARM's valuation compare to its peers?",
   "answer": "ARM Holdings is trading at a significant premium to its peers. Its P/E ratio of 319.10 and its price-to-sales ratio is 63.45, far exceeding the sector medians of 34 and 7.5, respectively."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the Wall Street consensus for ARM stock?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for ARM Holdings is 'Buy', with a score of 69 out of 100. This is based on 43 analysts, with 8 rating it Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell."
  },
  {
   "question": "Are ARM insiders buying or selling stock?",
   "answer": "Insiders at ARM Holdings are net sellers, with $0 in total purchases versus $69.0M in total sales in recent filings. This heavy selling pressure from insiders is a significant concern."
  },
  {
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      "text": "Insiders at ARM Holdings are net sellers, with $0 in total purchases versus $69 million in total sales across 37 transactions. This heavy selling pressure from insiders is a significant concern."
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    },
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     "name": "What are the main risks facing ARM Holdings?",
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      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "The primary risks include its extremely high valuation, significant insider selling totaling $69 million, and a Wall Street median price target below the current stock price, suggesting potential downside."
     }
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   ]
  }
 ]
}