{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/ares-capital-arcc/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/ares-capital-arcc/data.json",
 "title": "Ares Capital (ARCC) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "ARCC stock forecast 2026: is Ares Capital a buy right now? No EPS beat in 7 reports. Industry: asset management; listed on the NASDAQ.",
 "headline": "Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC)",
 "published": "2026-11-09T15:06:56+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-11-09T15:06:57.345+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-11-11T13:49:52.520Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by Anthony Beachey, Financial Journalist; prices delayed by up to a minute.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ARCC",
  "name": "Ares Capital Corp.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Financial Services",
  "industry": "Asset Management",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://arcc.ares.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 19.43,
  "previousClose": 19.35,
  "change": 0.085,
  "changePercent": 0.4393,
  "open": 19.32,
  "high": 19.52,
  "low": 19.26,
  "volume": 3144165,
  "averageVolume": 5125546,
  "marketCap": 14035859300,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 21.14,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 17.4,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-11-10T22:02:06.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 15.860656,
  "eps": 1.22,
  "dividendYield": 0.09879084126575766,
  "beta": 0.643,
  "priceToSales": 11.9556,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 1174000000,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.06191
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 57.69,
  "macd": 0.1063,
  "sma50": 19.13,
  "sma200": 18.97,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Neutral",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 54,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 21,
  "analystCount": 13,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Strong Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-10T22:02:06.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 19.435,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.28,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 14.46,
    "base": 20.28,
    "upside90th": 28.44
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 13.11,
    "base": 21.16,
    "upside90th": 34.13
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 12.29,
    "base": 22.07,
    "upside90th": 39.65
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 11.71,
    "base": 23.03,
    "upside90th": 45.3
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 6,
 "atAGlance": {
  "asOf": "November 10, 2026",
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 54,
  "evidence": [
   {
    "label": "Trend",
    "text": "Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($19.13 and $18.97)."
   },
   {
    "label": "Earnings",
    "text": "ARCC has not beaten estimates in any of its last 7 quarters."
   },
   {
    "label": "Insiders",
    "text": "Insiders bought $1.0M and made no open-market sales over the last 18 months."
   },
   {
    "label": "Valuation",
    "text": "P/E of 15.9 against 16.5 for the Financial Services sector: broadly in line with peers (-4%)."
   }
  ]
 },
 "figures": {
  "asOf": "November 10, 2026",
  "earningsReaction": {
   "quarters": 7,
   "beats": 0,
   "fellFirstSessionAfterBeat": 0,
   "latestReport": "Oct 27, 2026",
   "latestSurprisePercent": -4.17,
   "latestFirstSessionMovePercent": -0.54
  },
  "insiders": {
   "windowMonths": 18,
   "soldValue": 0,
   "boughtValue": 1014943,
   "sales": 0,
   "purchases": 6,
   "note": "open-market transactions only; grants and option exercises excluded"
  },
  "drawdown": {
   "years": 10,
   "worstFallPercent": -56.8,
   "peak": "February 2020",
   "trough": "March 2020",
   "recoveredBy": "January 2021",
   "recoveryMonths": 10,
   "belowThatPeakNowPercent": null,
   "fromHighNowPercent": -5.8,
   "oneYearHoldsPositivePercent": 76,
   "dividendsReinvested": true
  },
  "seasonality": {
   "years": 10,
   "bestMonth": {
    "month": "Nov",
    "averagePercent": 3.47,
    "upYearsPercent": 89
   },
   "worstMonth": {
    "month": "Mar",
    "averagePercent": -4.28,
    "upYearsPercent": 40
   }
  },
  "correlations": null,
  "analystTargets": {
   "analysts": 13,
   "low": 20,
   "median": 21,
   "high": 23,
   "mean": 21,
   "buy": 12,
   "hold": 1,
   "sell": 0
  },
  "dividend": {
   "yieldPercent": 9.88,
   "annualPerShare": 1.92
  },
  "simulation": {
   "year": 2030,
   "base": 23.03,
   "percentile10": 11.71,
   "percentile90": 45.3,
   "note": "Monte Carlo simulation outcomes, not price targets"
  }
 },
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "ch-overview",
   "title": "ARCC stock today, November 11, 2026: price, news and analyst targets",
   "text": [
    "As of November 10, 2026, Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) trades at $19.44. Wall Street's median 12-month price target is $21.00 across 13 analysts, 8.1% above the price. CleaRank rates it Hold with a score of 54/100.",
    "Ares Capital's stock has been drifting higher on the back of analyst support, even as its reported profits have lagged expectations. UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral on October 29, 2026, two days after the company's October 27 earnings report, which came in at $0.46 per share against a $0.48 estimate. The stock fell 0.54% in the first session after that report, and the market has so far looked past the miss. Shares sit 1.58% above their 50-day average and 2.46% above their 200-day average, and the trend is up. The question for investors is whether analyst conviction can hold up if quarterly earnings keep missing and revenue keeps shrinking.",
    "Analysts remain firmly supportive. Of 13 analysts with a current rating, 12 rate the stock buy or strong buy, one holds, and none sell, and the consensus is Strong Buy. That is a shift from three months ago, when 11 of 14 ratings were buy. The most recent move came from UBS, which upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral on October 29, 2026, after previously keeping a Neutral rating on September 1, 2026. Wells Fargo went the other way on June 12, 2026, when it downgraded the stock to Equal-Weight from Overweight.",
    "The business is the weak point in the picture. The October 27, 2026 report showed adjusted EPS of $0.46 against an estimate of $0.48, a miss of 4.17%, and the stock fell 0.54% in the next session. None of the last seven reports beat the EPS estimate, with two matching it exactly and the rest missing. Reported profit is healthy, with a net margin of 81.8%, but return on equity of 6.19% is below the sector median of 13.8%, and debt-to-equity stands at 1.08.",
    "At a trailing P/E of 15.86, the stock trades 3.9% below the sector median P/E of 16.5, which is broadly in line with peers. The trailing dividend yield is 9.88% on an annual dividend of $1.92 per share, which is the main reason many holders stay with the stock. The dividend is the core of the return case, and it depends on earnings that have been missing estimates.",
    "Insiders have been buyers rather than sellers. Over the last 18 months, there were six insider purchases worth $1.0M in total and no insider sales. On the chart, the 14-day RSI of 57.7 is in the neutral zone, and the MACD line is positive, which supports the uptrend. The stock is up 4.71% over one month and 2.24% over one week, although it is down 4.21% over the past year.",
    "CleaRank score 54/100 (Hold). 16 of 19 checks pass: trend 4 of 4, momentum 3 of 3, valuation and quality 3 of 5, analysts 3 of 3, track record 3 of 4.",
    "Ares Capital Corp. is a business development company that provides direct lending and other financing solutions to private middle-market companies in the United States. The company focuses on debt and equity investments across a broad range of industries, including first lien and second lien senior secured loans, unitranche loans, mezzanine debt, recapitalizations, acquisition financing, restructurings, and rescue financing."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-news",
   "title": "ARCC stock news",
   "text": [
    "UBS moved the stock to Buy from Neutral on October 29, 2026. An upgrade from a major firm after an earnings miss suggests some analysts see the current price as undervaluing the business.",
    "June 12, 2026·Wells Fargo",
    "Wells Fargo cut the stock to Equal-Weight from Overweight on June 12, 2026.",
    "July 2, 2026·JP Morgan",
    "JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating on July 2, 2026. The reaffirmation shows continued support from a large firm during the period of slowing revenue."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Upgrade from UBS October 29, 2026·UBS UBS moved the stock to Buy from Neutral on October 29, 2026. An upgrade from a major firm after an earnings miss suggests some analysts see the current price as undervaluing the business.",
     "Wells Fargo downgrade June 12, 2026·Wells Fargo Wells Fargo cut the stock to Equal-Weight from Overweight on June 12, 2026.",
     "JP Morgan keeps Overweight July 2, 2026·JP Morgan JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating on July 2, 2026. The reaffirmation shows continued support from a large firm during the period of slowing revenue."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-street",
   "title": "ARCC price target 2026",
   "text": [
    "The base case is that ARCC trades in a narrow range near its moving averages while the business goes through a slower patch. Analysts expect earnings per share to shrink 6.4% this fiscal year, to $1.88, before growing 3.2% next year to $1.94, so the recovery case depends on the company returning to growth in 2027. Analysts' median 12-month target is $21.00, with a range of $20.00 to $23.00, which sits 18.3% above the current price of $19.44. The bearish case is that revenue keeps shrinking and misses continue, which would test the 50-day and 200-day averages and weaken the case for the Buy ratings. A stronger quarter in which EPS meets or beats estimates would support the upgrade thesis. Simulations from past volatility are not forecasts, and the stock's 1.28% typical daily move gives a sense of normal day-to-day swings."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent analyst rating actions on ARCC",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Firm",
      "Action",
      "Rating"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Oct 29, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "UBS",
        "Upgrade",
        "Buy"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Sep 1, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "UBS",
        "Maintains",
        "Neutral"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 30, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Truist Securities",
        "Maintains",
        "Buy"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 30, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Keefe, Bruyette & Woods",
        "Maintains",
        "Outperform"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "JP Morgan",
        "Maintains",
        "Overweight"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jun 12, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Wells Fargo",
        "Downgrade",
        "Equal-Weight"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-levels",
   "title": "ARCC support and resistance levels",
   "text": [
    "Support sits first at the 50-day simple moving average of $19.13, which is the nearest level below the price. Next is the 20-day exponential moving average at $19.05, followed by the 200-day simple moving average at $18.97, which sits close enough to act as a single support zone. The 52-week low of $17.40 is the deeper floor. On the upside, the nearest resistance is the 52-week high of $21.14, which the stock would need to clear to set a new high. Analysts' lowest target of $20.00 and median target of $21.00 sit between the price and that high."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ARCC support and resistance levels",
     "columns": [
      "Level",
      "What it is",
      "Price",
      "From the price"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Resistance 1",
       "cells": [
        "52-week high",
        "$21.14",
        "+8.8%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Price",
       "cells": [
        "November 10, 2026",
        "$19.44",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 1",
       "cells": [
        "50-day moving average",
        "$19.13",
        "-1.6%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 2",
       "cells": [
        "20-day exponential average",
        "$19.05",
        "-2.0%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 3",
       "cells": [
        "200-day moving average",
        "$18.97",
        "-2.4%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Support 4",
       "cells": [
        "52-week low",
        "$17.40",
        "-10.5%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "RSI Neutral",
     "SMA cross Neutral",
     "Price vs SMA Bullish",
     "MACD Bullish"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-price",
   "title": "ARCC stock price and trading"
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-fundamentals",
   "title": "ARCC fundamentals and valuation",
   "text": [
    "Price to earnings vs sector: Valuation is broadly in line with sector peers (-4% against the sector median P/E).",
    "Return vs XLF: Since May 29, 2025, ARCC has lost 12.0% against a gain of 14.0% for XLF.",
    "Revenue growth: Revenue fell 11.8% in FY2025 to $1.5B, from $1.7B a year earlier.",
    "Profit margin: The net margin was 86.3% in FY2025, down from 89.1% the year before.",
    "Profitable: ARCC earned $1.3B in FY2025.",
    "Earnings record: ARCC did not beat the analyst estimate in the last 7 quarters."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ARCC earnings surprises and the stock's reaction",
     "columns": [
      "Report",
      "Estimate",
      "Actual",
      "Surprise",
      "First sessionDay 1",
      "5 sessionsDay 5"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Oct 27, 2026before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.48",
        "$0.46",
        "-4.17%",
        "-0.54%",
        "+4.35%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 29, 2026before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.47",
        "$0.47",
        "+0.00%",
        "-1.73%",
        "+3.20%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 28, 2026before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.48",
        "$0.47",
        "-2.08%",
        "+1.67%",
        "+3.06%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 4, 2026before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.50",
        "$0.50",
        "+0.00%",
        "+2.25%",
        "+4.34%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 28, 2025before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.50",
        "$0.50",
        "+0.00%",
        "+1.23%",
        "+0.44%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Jul 29, 2025before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.51",
        "$0.50",
        "-1.96%",
        "-0.70%",
        "-1.32%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 29, 2025before open",
       "cells": [
        "$0.54",
        "$0.50",
        "-7.41%",
        "-2.73%",
        "-3.39%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-history",
   "title": "ARCC price history and drawdowns",
   "text": [
    "Against the market: ARCC trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $30,497 against $40,115.",
    "A $10,000 investment in ARCC in December 2016 would be worth about $30,497 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $40,115 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested)."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-scenarios",
   "title": "ARCC stock price prediction 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $23.03 for ARCC by 2030 in the base case, from $19.44 today (1.2x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $11.71. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ARCC's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ARCC simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "10th percentile",
      "Base case",
      "90th percentile",
      "range base today"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$14.46",
        "$20.28",
        "$28.44",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$13.11",
        "$21.16",
        "$34.13",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$12.29",
        "$22.07",
        "$39.65",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$11.71",
        "$23.03",
        "$45.30",
        ""
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-insiders",
   "title": "ARCC insider trading",
   "text": [
    "Net insider buying: Insiders bought $1.0M on the open market."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Insider transactions in ARCC",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Oct 28, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Mary Beth Henson Director",
        "Buy",
        "2.5K",
        "$46.2K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 9, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Jana Markowicz Chief Operating Officer",
        "Buy",
        "15.0K",
        "$288.0K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 6, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Scott C Lem Chief Financial Officer",
        "Buy",
        "5.2K",
        "$100.0K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 5, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Mary Beth Henson Director",
        "Buy",
        "4.0K",
        "$76.6K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 5, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "Michael Kort Schnabel Chief Executive Officer",
        "Buy",
        "12.5K",
        "$239.1K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Oct 31, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "Michael Kort Schnabel Chief Executive Officer",
        "Buy",
        "13.0K",
        "$265.1K"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-faq",
   "title": "ARCC stock forecast: questions people ask",
   "text": [
    "How these figures are computed, and where the data comes from: CleaRank methodology."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-related",
   "title": "Compare ARCC with similar assets",
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 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the ARCC stock forecast?",
   "answer": "The analysts' median 12-month price target is $21.00, which is 8.1% above the price, and the targets run from a low of $20.00 to a high of $23.00 across 13 analysts. The nearest level below the price is the 50-day simple moving average at $19.13. The nearest level above it is the 52-week high at $21.14."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the ARCC price target?",
   "answer": "The median 12-month analyst target is $21.00, with the lowest at $20.00 and the highest at $23.00. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with 12 of 13 analysts rating the stock buy or strong buy. The last price of $19.44 sits below the median target."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is ARCC a buy or sell today?",
   "answer": "Analysts rate the stock Strong Buy, with 12 of 13 rating it buy, one rating it hold and none rating it sell. CleaRank rates the stock Hold with a score of 54 out of 100. The price is 1.58% above its 50-day average and 2.46% above its 200-day average, and the trend is up."
  },
  {
   "question": "Why did the stock fall after the October earnings report?",
   "answer": "The stock fell 0.54% in the first session after the October 27, 2026 report, which showed adjusted EPS of $0.46 against a $0.48 estimate. The move was small, and the stock is up 2.24% over the past week. The report did not change the analysts' expectation of 3.2% EPS growth next year."
  },
  {
   "question": "How big is the ARCC dividend?",
   "answer": "The trailing dividend yield is 9.88% on an annual dividend of $1.92 per share. The yield is high relative to the price, but earnings have missed estimates in each of the last seven reports where the EPS estimate was not matched exactly."
  },
  {
   "question": "How volatile is ARCC stock?",
   "answer": "The 30-day standard deviation of daily returns is 1.28%, which is the typical daily move. The beta against the S&P 500 is 0.64, meaning the stock has moved less than the broad market."
  }
 ],
 "related": {
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    "ticker": "BLNE",
    "name": "Beeline Holdings Inc. NASDAQ",
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