{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/alaska-air-alk/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/alaska-air-alk/data.json",
 "title": "Alaska Air (ALK) Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) stock: Industrials, Airlines. $4.5B market cap. AI rating, technicals, 2030 forecast and trade plans.",
 "headline": "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)",
 "published": "2026-07-12T12:11:14+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-10T08:42:00.24+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T21:01:55.530Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "ALK",
  "name": "Alaska Air Group Inc.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Industrials",
  "industry": "Airlines",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.alaskaair.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 40.16,
  "previousClose": 40.36,
  "change": -0.2,
  "changePercent": -0.5,
  "open": 39.675,
  "high": 40.84,
  "low": 39.41,
  "volume": 49730,
  "averageVolume": 1812493,
  "marketCap": 4504301923,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 65.88,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 33.029999,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-10T08:41:57.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": -24.94,
  "eps": -1.61,
  "dividendYield": 0.03716550984430062,
  "beta": 1.279,
  "priceToSales": 0.30798018,
  "priceToBook": 1.2384862,
  "revenueTtm": 14762999808,
  "grossMargin": 0.07158671586715867,
  "returnOnEquity": -0.04598
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 45.85,
  "macd": -1.53,
  "sma50": 46,
  "sma200": 45.9,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Neutral",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 78,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 40.36,
  "analystTarget": 58,
  "analystCount": 16,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T08:41:57.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 40.16,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 2.77,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 39.36,
  "aggressiveEntry": 40.16,
  "stopLoss": 37.22,
  "stopLossPercent": 5.44,
  "targets": [
   41.32,
   43.29,
   45.26
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 22.83,
    "base": 40.16,
    "upside90th": 70.64
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 18.06,
    "base": 40.15,
    "upside90th": 89.26
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 15.09,
    "base": 40.15,
    "upside90th": 106.81
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 12.97,
    "base": 40.15,
    "upside90th": 124.25
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 11.35,
    "base": 40.15,
    "upside90th": 141.96
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 10.06,
    "base": 40.14,
    "upside90th": 160.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 9.01,
    "base": 40.14,
    "upside90th": 178.9
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 8.12,
    "base": 40.14,
    "upside90th": 198.33
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 7.37,
    "base": 40.13,
    "upside90th": 218.5
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 6.73,
    "base": 40.13,
    "upside90th": 239.46
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "ALK Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$39.68",
    "Day Range": "$39.41 to $40.84",
    "Prev Close": "$40.36",
    "Volume": "49.7K",
    "52-Week Range": "$33.03 to $65.88",
    "Market Cap": "$4.50B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+269%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "financials",
   "title": "ALK Financial Performance",
   "text": [
    "Analysis: In the last 3 quarters, ALK beat estimates 3 times. However, the stock fell 3 times the next day. This suggests positive news is often \"priced in\" or investors are selling the news."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "ALK Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $45.9994 and its 200-day SMA of $45.9014, indicating a bearish short-to-medium term trend. The RSI is at 45.85, falling within the neutral momentum range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD is at -1.53, also signaling bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price of $40.36, with resistance seen at the 50-day SMA of $45.9994. Volume on the latest trading day was 1,986,200, slightly below the average of 2,007,200, indicating moderate trading activity. The chart structure suggests that the stock needs to break above the $45.90 to $46.00 range to signal a potential reversal of the current downtrend.",
    "16 analysts cover ALK, with a median price target of $58, representing a 43.7% upside from the current price. The consensus rating is predominantly Buy.",
    "Analysts forecast current quarter revenue to reach $4.3 billion, a 14.00% increase year-over-year, indicating strong top-line expansion potential.",
    "Insiders have sold $5.1 million worth of stock versus $1 million in purchases, indicating a net seller position and potential lack of confidence in the short term.",
    "Despite recent EPS beats, ALK's stock price has declined, suggesting that positive earnings news is not currently translating into market optimism.",
    "The base case for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) over the next 6-12 months anticipates a potential move towards the median analyst target price of $58, driven by projected revenue growth and positive analyst sentiment. The company's ability to sustain revenue expansion and potentially improve profitability could lead to a re-rating of the stock. The current dividend yield of 3.53% also provides a baseline return for investors. Upside catalysts include a stronger-than-expected recovery in air travel demand or successful cost-management initiatives that improve net margins. Conversely, downside risks involve a potential increase in fuel costs, intensified competition within the airline industry, or a failure to translate revenue growth into profitability, which could pressure the stock towards its lower support levels around $40.36."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider the moderate insider selling as a signal of caution, and monitor future transactions closely.",
     "The stock is currently trading below key moving averages, suggesting that a break above $46 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.",
     "With a dividend yield of approximately 3.53%, ALK may appeal to income-focused investors, but profitability concerns should be weighed against dividend sustainability."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets",
     "text": "16 analysts cover ALK, with a median price target of $58, representing a 43.7% upside from the current price. The consensus rating is predominantly Buy.",
     "source": "Wall Street Analysts"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Projected Revenue Growth",
     "text": "Analysts forecast current quarter revenue to reach $4.3 billion, a 14.00% increase year-over-year, indicating strong top-line expansion potential.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Insider Selling Activity",
     "text": "Insiders have sold $5.1 million worth of stock versus $1 million in purchases, indicating a net seller position and potential lack of confidence in the short term.",
     "source": "Insider Summary"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Negative Price Reaction to Earnings Beats",
     "text": "Despite recent EPS beats, ALK's stock price has declined, suggesting that positive earnings news is not currently translating into market optimism.",
     "source": "Earnings Recent Data"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) exhibits a negative P/E ratio due to its EPS of -1.61, making traditional valuation comparisons difficult. However, the company has achieved revenue growth of 9.7%, and analysts forecast continued expansion with current quarter revenue expected to increase by 14.00% year-over-year to $4.3 billion. The median analyst price target of $58 suggests a significant upside from the current price, implying that the market may be undervaluing the company's future revenue potential relative to its current stock price. The balance sheet strength is not detailed, but the negative EPS indicates profitability challenges. The company's dividend yield is approximately 3.53%, offering some income to investors. Given the negative EPS and P/E, the current valuation appears stretched if solely based on profitability metrics, but the strong revenue growth projections and analyst targets suggest a potential turnaround or growth story is anticipated by the market.",
    "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) most recently reported an EPS of -0.92 on July 21, 2026, which beat the analyst estimate of -0.99 by 7.07%. Despite this earnings beat, the stock experienced a price decline of -2.42%. Prior earnings reports also show a pattern of beating estimates, such as the 0.92 EPS versus an estimate of 0.83 in April 2026, yet the stock reacted negatively with a -4.8% change. This suggests that positive earnings surprises are not currently translating into stock price appreciation, possibly due to broader market sentiment or concerns about future profitability.",
    "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) faces moderate selling pressure from insiders, with $5.1 million in sales versus $1 million in purchases, indicating a degree of caution among management. The stock is also trading below key moving averages, signaling potential near-term weakness. Also, recent earnings beats have been met with negative stock price reactions, highlighting investor skepticism or broader industry headwinds that could impact future performance."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "4.50B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "N/A (Negative EPS)"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "-1.61"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "3.53%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "65.88"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "33.03"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Neutral SMA Cross Neutral Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Neutral",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "45.85"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.53"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "46.00"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "45.90"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.54",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.47",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.10",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.10"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "ALK Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (45.9) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$41.32",
    "TARGET 2": "$43.29",
    "TARGET 3": "$45.26",
    "STOP LOSS": "$37.22"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.12%",
    "Average Feb return": "+0.36%",
    "Average Mar return": "-10.01%",
    "Average Apr return": "+2.66%",
    "Average May return": "+3.21%",
    "Average Jun return": "+1.17%",
    "Average Jul return": "-2.17%",
    "Average Aug return": "-0.30%",
    "Average Sep return": "-1.19%",
    "Average Oct return": "-3.20%",
    "Average Nov return": "+9.51%",
    "Average Dec return": "+4.36%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "2.77%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in ALK in September 2016 would be worth about $5,783 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in ALK today could grow to about $9,993 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $59,626 and a bear case around $1,675. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "ALK Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $40.15 for ALK by 2030 in the base case, from $40.16 today (1.0x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $12.97. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on ALK's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using ALK's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "ALK simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$22.83",
        "$40.16",
        "$70.64"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$18.06",
        "$40.15",
        "$89.26"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$15.09",
        "$40.15",
        "$107"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$12.97",
        "$40.15",
        "$124"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$11.35",
        "$40.15",
        "$142"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$10.06",
        "$40.14",
        "$160"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$9.01",
        "$40.14",
        "$179"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$8.12",
        "$40.14",
        "$198"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$7.37",
        "$40.13",
        "$219"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$6.73",
        "$40.13",
        "$239"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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    },
    {
     "text": "UNP Union Pacific Corp. NYSE $285.45 +0.2494%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/union-pacific-unp/"
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    {
     "text": "PWR Quanta Services, Inc. NYSE $622.49 -0.7161%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/pwr-stock-analysis/"
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    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/sym-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/vti-vs-vxus/"
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "ALK Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$1.0M",
    "Sold": "$5.1M",
    "Insiders": "19",
    "Avg Transaction": "$465.8K"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in ALK",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Jan 28, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "HARRISON ANDREW R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "91.7K",
        "$6.5M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Apr 23, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "TILDEN BRADLEY DOUGLAS Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "33.8K",
        "$2.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 12, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "MINICUCCI BENITO Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "30.0K",
        "$2.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 10, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "TACKETT SHANE R Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "22.9K",
        "$1.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 18, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "VON MUEHLEN CONSTANCE E Chief Operating Officer",
        "Sell",
        "22.2K",
        "$1.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 12, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "TILDEN BRADLEY DOUGLAS Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "23.4K",
        "$1.6M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 18, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "TACKETT SHANE R Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "24.0K",
        "$1.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 25, 2021",
       "cells": [
        "MINICUCCI BENITO Officer",
        "Sell",
        "14.4K",
        "$962.3K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dec 11, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "HARRISON ANDREW R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "13.9K",
        "$888.4K"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 13, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "HARRISON ANDREW R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "14.5K",
        "$794.8K"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Alaska+Air+Group+Inc.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) stock a buy right now?",
   "answer": "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is currently rated as a Buy by Wall Street analysts, with a median price target of $58, suggesting a 43.7% upside from its current price of $40.36. While technical indicators are bearish, the positive revenue growth and analyst consensus support a bullish outlook."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) dividend yield?",
   "answer": "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.53%, with a dividend rate of $1.42 per share."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key risks for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)?",
   "answer": "Key risks for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) include moderate insider selling totaling $5.1 million, a bearish technical trend with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($46.00 and $45.90), and negative stock price reactions to recent earnings beats."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) revenue growth trending?",
   "answer": "Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) has demonstrated revenue growth of 9.7%. Analysts forecast continued expansion, with current quarter revenue estimated at $4.3 billion, representing a 14.00% year-over-year increase."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the analyst consensus for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK)?",
   "answer": "The Wall Street consensus for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is predominantly Buy, with 15 out of 16 analysts recommending the stock as Buy or Strong Buy. The overall Wall Street score is 78 out of 100."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) long-term stock forecast?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Alaska Air Group Inc.'s (ALK) stock forecast for 2030 shows a base price projection of $40.35, with a downside price of $13.04 and an upside price of $124.87. These are statistical outcomes, not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
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}