{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/ajg-stock-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/stock/ajg-stock-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "AJG Stock Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "Is Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) a Buy or Sell today? Get the latest AI trade setup, key support levels and insurance broker analysis. Updated daily.",
 "headline": "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)",
 "published": "2026-09-03T09:29:20+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-10T13:52:38.145+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:41:55.107Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "AJG",
  "name": "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.",
  "type": "Common Stock",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": "Financial Services",
  "industry": "Insurance Brokers",
  "country": "United States",
  "website": "https://www.ajg.com"
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 243.31,
  "previousClose": 244.28,
  "change": -0.97,
  "changePercent": -0.4,
  "open": 245.22,
  "high": 247.545,
  "low": 242.7,
  "volume": 1055772,
  "averageVolume": 1339997,
  "marketCap": 62618979480,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 313.54999,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 190.75,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-10T13:52:36.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 41.630795,
  "eps": 6.04,
  "dividendYield": 0.011329610746945051,
  "beta": 0.506,
  "priceToSales": 4.266129,
  "priceToBook": 2.7173207,
  "revenueTtm": 15109000192,
  "grossMargin": 0.40594554084436674,
  "returnOnEquity": 0.06722
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 40.36,
  "macd": 0.3,
  "sma50": 254.88,
  "sma200": 233.87,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 73,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": 288.5,
  "analystTarget": 288.5,
  "analystCount": 22,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "Buy",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T13:52:36.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 243.31,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.81,
   "risk": "standard"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 238.44,
  "aggressiveEntry": 243.31,
  "stopLoss": 231.29,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   250.37,
   262.29,
   274.21
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 200.74,
    "base": 271.97,
    "upside90th": 368.48
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 197.86,
    "base": 304.01,
    "upside90th": 467.1
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 200.82,
    "base": 339.82,
    "upside90th": 575.04
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 206.94,
    "base": 379.86,
    "upside90th": 697.27
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 215.31,
    "base": 424.6,
    "upside90th": 837.34
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 225.57,
    "base": 474.62,
    "upside90th": 998.66
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 237.55,
    "base": 530.54,
    "upside90th": 1184.86
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 251.21,
    "base": 593.03,
    "upside90th": 1399.99
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 266.54,
    "base": 662.89,
    "upside90th": 1648.62
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 283.62,
    "base": 740.98,
    "upside90th": 1935.92
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "AJG Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$245.22",
    "Day Range": "$242.70 to $247.55",
    "Prev Close": "$244.28",
    "Volume": "1.06M",
    "52-Week Range": "$190.75 to $313.55",
    "Market Cap": "$62.62B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-benchmarking",
   "title": "Peer Benchmarking",
   "text": [
    "Sector Position Analysis Trading at a significant premium to sector peers (+63%), suggesting market expectations for superior growth or market position."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "AJG Analysis",
   "text": [
    "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is currently trading below its 50-day and 20-day SMAs, at $254.88 and $257.03 respectively, suggesting near-term downward pressure. However, the stock remains above its 200-day SMA of $233.87, indicating a longer-term uptrend is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.36, falling into the neutral momentum category, and the MACD is slightly positive at 0.295. Volume data shows a significant decrease compared to the average, which could imply a lack of conviction behind recent price movements. Key support is seen at the 200-day SMA, while resistance lies around the 50-day SMA.",
    "Several analysts have recently maintained or upgraded their ratings to 'Buy' or 'Overweight', indicating continued positive sentiment from Wall Street towards AJG's prospects.",
    "Current year revenue is estimated to grow by 22.00% to $16.7 billion, significantly outpacing sector averages and signaling strong business expansion.",
    "Insiders have sold a net $49.5 million in stock versus $1 million purchased, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' that could suggest caution among management.",
    "The median analyst price target of $288.50 represents a potential 16.9% upside from the current stock price, reflecting analyst confidence in future performance.",
    "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with current year revenue estimates at $16.7 billion and next year's projected at $18.3 billion. The median analyst price target of $288.50 suggests a 16.9% upside from the current price, supported by a generally positive analyst sentiment. The company's ability to maintain its revenue growth momentum and navigate its premium valuation will be key. Potential catalysts include further positive earnings surprises and continued strategic acquisitions within the insurance brokerage sector. Conversely, a significant shift in market sentiment towards value stocks or increased regulatory scrutiny could pressure the stock, especially given the current insider selling trend."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. offers a modest dividend yield of approximately 1.09%, providing a small income component to total returns.",
     "Investors should monitor insider transaction activity closely, as the recent 'Moderate Sell Signal' warrants attention despite the overall 'Buy' consensus.",
     "Given the stock's current position below its 50-day SMA, traders may look for confirmation of support around the 200-day SMA before initiating new long positions."
    ]
   },
   "catalysts": [
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Positive Analyst Rating Changes",
     "text": "Several analysts have recently maintained or upgraded their ratings to 'Buy' or 'Overweight', indicating continued positive sentiment from Wall Street towards AJG's prospects.",
     "source": "Wall Street Analyst Ratings"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Strong Revenue Growth Estimates",
     "text": "Current year revenue is estimated to grow by 22.00% to $16.7 billion, significantly outpacing sector averages and signaling strong business expansion.",
     "source": "Wall Street Revenue Estimates"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bearish",
     "title": "Moderate Insider Selling Signal",
     "text": "Insiders have sold a net $49.5 million in stock versus $1 million purchased, indicating a 'Moderate Sell Signal' that could suggest caution among management.",
     "source": "Insider Transactions"
    },
    {
     "type": "Bullish",
     "title": "Median Analyst Price Target Upside",
     "text": "The median analyst price target of $288.50 represents a potential 16.9% upside from the current stock price, reflecting analyst confidence in future performance.",
     "source": "Wall Street Price Target"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. exhibits a high P/E ratio of 41.63, significantly above the sector average of 25.5, indicating a premium valuation. However, its strong revenue growth of 22.00% for the current year, compared to the sector average of 10.00%, may justify this premium. The company's forward revenue estimates are positive, with next year's growth projected at 9.00%. The positive EPS of $6.04 and the analyst consensus suggest underlying profitability. The dividend yield of 1.09% offers a modest income stream for investors.",
    "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. most recently reported an EPS of $2.84 for the quarter ending July 30, 2026, slightly beating the analyst estimate of $2.81 by 1.07%. This follows a pattern of positive surprises in prior quarters, including a significant 24.32% beat in the quarter ending May 29, 2026. The stock experienced a 2.75% decline following the latest earnings release, despite the beat, suggesting market sentiment may be factoring in other concerns.",
    "The primary risk for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. lies in its elevated valuation, with a P/E ratio significantly higher than the sector average. Additionally, recent insider selling, with total sales of $49.5 million against $1 million in purchases, signals a potential lack of confidence from management in the short term. While the stock is above its 200-day SMA, it is trading below its 50-day SMA, indicating potential near-term technical weakness."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Market Cap",
       "cells": [
        "62.62B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "P/E Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "41.63"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "EPS (TTM)",
       "cells": [
        "6.04"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Dividend Yield",
       "cells": [
        "1.09%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "313.55"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "190.75"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Neutral RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bullish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($254.88) above the 200-day SMA ($233.87), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "40.36"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.30"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "254.88"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "233.87"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this stock moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.11",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "-0.05",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.08",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "-0.04"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "AJG Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (40.4) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$250.37",
    "TARGET 2": "$262.29",
    "TARGET 3": "$274.21",
    "STOP LOSS": "$231.29"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.81%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in AJG in September 2016 would be worth about $48,671 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in AJG today could grow to about $30,454 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $79,566 and a bear case around $11,657. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "AJG Stock Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $380 for AJG by 2030 in the base case, from $243 today (1.6x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $207. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on AJG's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using AJG's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "AJG simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$201",
        "$272",
        "$368"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$198",
        "$304",
        "$467"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$201",
        "$340",
        "$575"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$207",
        "$380",
        "$697"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$215",
        "$425",
        "$837"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$226",
        "$475",
        "$999"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$238",
        "$531",
        "$1,185"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$251",
        "$593",
        "$1,400"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$267",
        "$663",
        "$1,649"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$284",
        "$741",
        "$1,936"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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  },
  {
   "id": "insider-trading",
   "title": "AJG Insider Trading Analysis",
   "facts": {
    "Bought": "$1.0M",
    "Sold": "$49.5M",
    "Insiders": "22",
    "Avg Transaction": "$2.2M"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "Recent insider transactions in AJG",
     "columns": [
      "Date",
      "Insider",
      "Type",
      "Shares",
      "Value"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Aug 28, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "HOWELL DOUGLAS K Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "66.4K",
        "$15.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 3, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "PIETRUCHA SUSAN E Officer",
        "Sell",
        "57.4K",
        "$12.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 13, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "HUDSON SCOTT R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "30.5K",
        "$7.8M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Feb 3, 2025",
       "cells": [
        "HUDSON SCOTT R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "23.0K",
        "$7.1M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 4, 2023",
       "cells": [
        "CAVANESS JOEL D Officer",
        "Sell",
        "33.3K",
        "$7.0M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 4, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "HOWELL DOUGLAS K Chief Financial Officer",
        "Sell",
        "60.0K",
        "$6.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 9, 2022",
       "cells": [
        "HUDSON SCOTT R Officer",
        "Sell",
        "42.6K",
        "$6.7M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Nov 2, 2020",
       "cells": [
        "GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH Officer",
        "Sell",
        "60.8K",
        "$6.4M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Mar 2, 2026",
       "cells": [
        "GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR Chief Executive Officer",
        "Sell",
        "27.5K",
        "$6.3M"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "May 20, 2024",
       "cells": [
        "BAY WALTER D General Counsel",
        "Sell",
        "24.4K",
        "$6.2M"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SEC Form 4",
     "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&company=Arthur+J.+Gallagher+%26+Co.&type=4&dateb=&owner=include&count=40&search_text=&action=getcompany"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. stock a buy?",
   "answer": "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is currently rated a 'Buy' by Wall Street analysts, with a consensus score of 73. The median analyst price target of $288.50 suggests a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of $246.75."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s dividend yield?",
   "answer": "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.09%, with a dividend rate of $2.70 per share."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key risks for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.?",
   "answer": "Key risks include its high P/E ratio relative to the sector, recent moderate insider selling totaling $49.5 million, and its current trading position below the 50-day SMA."
  },
  {
   "question": "How is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. performing on revenue growth?",
   "answer": "The company is demonstrating strong revenue growth, with current year estimates projecting a 22.00% increase year-over-year to $16.7 billion, significantly outpacing the sector average."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the analyst consensus for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.?",
   "answer": "The analyst consensus for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is predominantly 'Buy', with 12 out of 22 analysts recommending a Buy rating. The overall Wall Street score is 73 out of 100."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s stock price prediction for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s stock price is projected to be $385.23 in 2030 under a base case scenario, with a downside projection of $209.86 and an upside projection of $707.13. These are statistical outcomes, not guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "How did Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. perform in its latest earnings report?",
   "answer": "In its most recent earnings report for the quarter ending July 30, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. reported an EPS of $2.84, slightly beating the estimate of $2.81 by 1.07%, though the stock saw a 2.75% decline."
  }
 ],
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