{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/vtv-etf-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/vtv-etf-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Vanguard Value (VTV) ETF Forecast & Price Prediction 2026",
 "description": "Vanguard Value (VTV) ETF: 0.03% expense ratio. $251.7B net assets. Large Value. Vanguard. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)",
 "published": "2026-08-12T06:31:10+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-10-22T08:20:53.668+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T06:54:10.713Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by Ryan Brothwell, Financial Journalist; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "VTV",
  "name": "Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 224.94,
  "previousClose": 224.51,
  "change": 0.43,
  "changePercent": 0.1915,
  "open": 224.71001,
  "high": 225.080002,
  "low": 224.070007,
  "volume": 2403100,
  "averageVolume": 2592720,
  "marketCap": 86318112768,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 228.57001,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 182.81,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-10-22T08:20:53.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 19.819857,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0.018512426690921898,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 62.78,
  "macd": 0.5757,
  "sma50": 222.86,
  "sma200": 211.54,
  "rsiSignal": "Bullish",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Bullish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Strong Buy",
  "score": 89,
  "consensus": "Strong Buy",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": null,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-10-22T08:20:53.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 224.94,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 0.5298,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 220.44,
  "aggressiveEntry": 224.94,
  "stopLoss": 213.83,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   231.46,
   242.49,
   253.51
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 195.77,
    "base": 242.43,
    "upside90th": 300.21
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 193.1,
    "base": 261.27,
    "upside90th": 353.5
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 194.44,
    "base": 281.58,
    "upside90th": 407.77
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 197.89,
    "base": 303.47,
    "upside90th": 465.37
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 202.78,
    "base": 327.06,
    "upside90th": 527.51
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 10,
 "atAGlance": {
  "asOf": "October 22, 2026",
  "rating": "Strong Buy",
  "score": 89,
  "evidence": [
   {
    "label": "Trend",
    "text": "Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($222.86 and $211.54)."
   },
   {
    "label": "Fund",
    "text": "Expense ratio 0.03%, $251.7B in net assets, price up 20.1% over 1 year."
   }
  ]
 },
 "figures": {
  "asOf": "October 22, 2026",
  "earningsReaction": null,
  "insiders": null,
  "drawdown": {
   "years": 10,
   "worstFallPercent": -30.79,
   "peak": "February 2020",
   "trough": "March 2020",
   "recoveredBy": "December 2020",
   "recoveryMonths": 9,
   "belowThatPeakNowPercent": null,
   "fromHighNowPercent": -1.13,
   "oneYearHoldsPositivePercent": 85,
   "dividendsReinvested": true
  },
  "seasonality": {
   "years": 10,
   "bestMonth": {
    "month": "Nov",
    "averagePercent": 4.36,
    "upYearsPercent": 90
   },
   "worstMonth": {
    "month": "Mar",
    "averagePercent": -2.08,
    "upYearsPercent": 40
   }
  },
  "correlations": null,
  "analystTargets": null,
  "dividend": {
   "yieldPercent": 1.93,
   "annualPerShare": null
  },
  "simulation": {
   "year": 2030,
   "base": 303.47,
   "percentile10": 197.89,
   "percentile90": 465.37,
   "note": "Monte Carlo simulation outcomes, not price targets"
  }
 },
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "ch-overview",
   "title": "The short version",
   "text": [
    "Where VTV stands today, and what CleaRank Financial AI makes of it.",
    "Vanguard Value ETF (VTV): Strong Buy, 89/100 on CleaRank's AI score.",
    "Figures as of October 22, 2026.",
    "CleaRank rates Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Strong Buy, with a model score of 89/100. The trend lifts the score most: the price is 6.34% above its 200-day average and 0.93% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 5.35% above the 200-day. The 50-day average stands at $222.86 and the 200-day at $211.54. Over the past year the price rose 20.15%.",
    "Figures we compute ourselves from VTV's own price history. Tap one to see it in context."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "VTV at a glance": [
     "Trend Up: the price is above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($222.86 and $211.54).",
     "Fund Expense ratio 0.03%, $251.7B in net assets, price up 20.1% over 1 year."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-price",
   "title": "Price and trading",
   "text": [
    "The chart, today's range and how far the price has moved over each period.",
    "Pick a period: each tab shows how far VTV has moved over it, to the last close.",
    "Where VTV sits inside today's range and its 52-week range."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Price above its 50-day average › The price of $224.94 is 0.9% above the 50-day simple moving average of $222.86.",
     "Price above its 200-day average › The price is 6.3% above the 200-day simple moving average of $211.54.",
     "50-day average above the 200-day › The 50-day average ($222.86) is 5.4% above the 200-day average ($211.54), the arrangement of a rising longer-term trend.",
     "In the upper half of its 52-week range › The price sits at 92% of its 52-week range, between $182.81 and $228.57."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-fundamentals",
   "title": "Fund facts and valuation",
   "text": [
    "What the fund holds, what it costs and how it is valued.",
    "Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides broad exposure to large-cap U.S. value stocks. The fund is designed to track a value-oriented index and holds a diversified portfolio across major sectors such as financials, health care, technology, energy, and industrials. Its portfolio construction emphasizes companies with value characteristics, typically using market-cap-based weighting within its benchmark methodology.",
    "As of Oct 22, 2026, VTV has an expense ratio of 0.03%, $251.72B in net assets and a distribution yield of 1.93%.",
    "Fund reference data as of Oct 22, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund. The trailing returns are the fund family's own month-end total returns, with distributions included, so they can differ from the price changes elsewhere on this page.",
    "The headline figures for VTV.",
    "CleaRank Financial AI's reading of VTV's holdings, performance and risks.",
    "VTV's biggest sector is Financial Services, at 23.3% of the fund. Healthcare follows at 16.1%, and Technology is third at 14.1%. The fund is a Large Value offering from Vanguard that was launched on January 26, 2004.VTV charges 0.03% a year, which works out to $3.00 on each $10,000 held. The fund has $251.7B in net assets. Its distribution yield stands at 1.93%, and portfolio turnover is 8%.",
    "On a typical day the price of VTV shifts by 0.53%, the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "VTV"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "14.81%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "-3.47%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "-0.47%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "18.19%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "18.75%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "12.43%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "12.28%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Expense ratio at or below 0.20% › The fund charges 0.03% a year, $3.00 on a $10,000 holding.",
     "Over $1B in net assets › Net assets total $251.7B.",
     "No sector above 35% of the fund › The largest sector, Financial Services, makes up 23.3% of the fund.",
     "Pays a distribution › The distribution yield is 1.93%.",
     "Price up over one year › The price rose 20.15% over the past year."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-analysis",
   "title": "AI analysis and technicals",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's score and reasoning, the indicators behind it, and what the price moves with.",
    "The score, the reasoning behind it, and what could move the price next.",
    "VTV is still in an uptrend. At $224.94, the price is 0.93% above its 50-day average of $222.86 and 6.34% above its 200-day average of $211.54. It also sits close to the top of its 52-week range: 1.59% below the high of $228.57, and 23.05% above the low of $182.81. Because the 50-day average is 5.35% above the 200-day, the two averages agree with the recent move instead of pulling against it.The 14-day RSI of 62.8 is in the bullish zone, below the overbought line, and the MACD line is positive. The record is positive across every period shown: the price rose 2.55% over the past three months, rose 10.88% over the past six months and rose 20.15% over the past year.",
    "The uptrend rests on VTV staying above its 50-day average at $222.86 and its 200-day average at $211.54; a close below the 50-day would be the first crack in it. On a pullback, the first level the price would meet is the 50-day SMA at $222.86.The next level overhead is the 52-week high, at $228.57. The RSI is in the bullish zone, so momentum still supports the move.",
    "Momentum and trend for VTV, from its daily closes.",
    "As of October 22, 2026, with VTV at $224.94, its 14-day RSI is 62.8 (showing bullish momentum without being overbought), its 50-day simple moving average is $222.86 and its 200-day is $211.54.",
    "Calculated by CleaRank on daily closes as of October 22, 2026: Wilder's 14-day RSI, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, MACD line (12, 26).",
    "Correlation of daily returns over one year: +1 moves in step, 0 has no link, -1 moves the opposite way.",
    "As of October 22, 2026, VTV's 1-year correlation of daily returns is +0.82 with S&P 500 (SPY), +0.66 with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), +0.29 with Bitcoin (BTC) and +0.19 with gold (XAU)."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "RSI Bullish",
     "SMA cross Bullish",
     "Price vs SMA Bullish",
     "MACD Bullish"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-plan",
   "title": "A trade plan, if you want one",
   "text": [
    "Entry, stop and target levels from the moving averages and recent volatility. Educational, not advice.",
    "Entry, stop and target levels, sized to your account. Change the bias or the risk and every level updates.",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "These levels come from VTV's moving averages and recent volatility, not from a forecast. Educational levels, not financial advice; the full disclaimer is at the foot of the page.",
    "Would this VTV plan have made money the last ten times?",
    "Your entry, stop and targets are set above. Replay them against VTV's own history and count how often the target hit before the stop.",
    "How much VTV tends to move, against the market and on its own."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Wins vs stops",
     "Best exit",
     "Max drawdown"
    ]
   },
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "Position Size",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/position-size-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Stop Loss",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/stop-loss-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Risk/Reward",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/risk-reward-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "P&L Calculator",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/profit-loss-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Trailing Stop",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/trailing-stop-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Fibonacci",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/fibonacci-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Pivot Points",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/pivot-point-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Win Rate",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/breakeven-win-rate-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Expectancy",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/tools/trade-expectancy-calculator/"
    },
    {
     "text": "Replay this plan on VTVStart free trial · $0 today",
     "url": "https://trade.clearank.com/portfolio/demo?utm_source=clearank&amp;utm_medium=cta&amp;utm_campaign=asset_plan&amp;utm_content=trial7"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-risk",
   "title": "The long record",
   "text": [
    "VTV's worst falls and recoveries, what $10,000 became, and which months have been kind to it.",
    "As of October 22, 2026, VTV's worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years with dividends reinvested was -30.8% (February 2020 to March 2020); it regained that peak by December 2020, 9 months after the low, and 85% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain.",
    "From weekly closing values with dividends reinvested. A drawdown is the fall from the highest value reached so far to a later low.",
    "What $10,000 put into VTV in October 2016 is worth now, against the same amount in the S&P 500.",
    "Against the market: VTV trailed the S&P 500 over this period: $33,434 against $42,099.",
    "A $10,000 investment in VTV in October 2016 would be worth about $33,434 today with dividends reinvested, compared with about $42,099 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark (also with dividends reinvested).",
    "Which calendar months have been kind to VTV, and which have not.",
    "Strongest month, November: an average of +4.36%, up in 9 of 10 years.",
    "Weakest month, March: an average of -2.08%, up in 4 of 10 years.",
    "This month, October: has averaged +0.76%, up in 6 of 9 years. Past seasonality does not repeat on schedule.",
    "Over the last 10 years, VTV's strongest calendar month has been November (average +4.36%, up in 9 of 10 years) and its weakest March (average -2.08%, up in 4 of 10 years).",
    "Average return for each calendar month over the last 10 years, from weekly closing prices with dividends included."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "Average daily move under 2% › The price has moved 0.53% on an average day (30-day standard deviation of daily returns).",
     "Recovered from its worst fall › The worst fall was 30.8%, from February 2020 to March 2020, regained by December 2020.",
     "Most 1-year holds ended higher › 85% of 1-year holding periods in the last 10 years ended with a gain.",
     "Beat the S&P 500 since the chart begins › $10,000 invested in October 2016 is now worth $33,434, against $42,099 in the S&P 500 (SPY)."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-scenarios",
   "title": "Long-term scenarios",
   "text": [
    "Thousands of simulated paths from the price history. A range of outcomes, not a forecast.",
    "Thousands of simulated paths for $10,000 in VTV, from its own past volatility. The shaded area holds 80% of them.",
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VTV today could grow to about $21,141 by 2036 in the base case, with a 90th-percentile outcome near $41,564 and a 10th-percentile outcome around $10,753 (above the amount invested: over ten years most simulated paths of a rising, moderately volatile asset end higher). The simulation models price only; at today's 1.93% yield, dividends would add to these figures. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees.",
    "The same simulation in prices, year by year.",
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $303 for VTV by 2030 in the base case, from $225 today (1.3x over 4 years). The 10th-percentile path ends near $198. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VTV's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: a lognormal simulation of VTV's own volatility and capped historical trend, re-run daily; base case is the median path, the outer columns the 10th and 90th percentiles.",
    "What would VTV do to your portfolio?",
    "Add it to what you already hold. Ten-year backtest, the drawdown it brings, and how much of it is just the S&P in disguise."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "VTV simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "10th percentile",
      "Base case",
      "90th percentile",
      "range base today"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$196",
        "$242",
        "$300",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$193",
        "$261",
        "$354",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$194",
        "$282",
        "$408",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$198",
        "$303",
        "$465",
        ""
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$203",
        "$327",
        "$528",
        ""
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "lists": {
    "items": [
     "10-year backtest",
     "Drawdown added",
     "Correlation"
    ]
   },
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "Backtest my portfolio with VTVStart free trial · $0 today",
     "url": "https://trade.clearank.com/portfolio/demo?utm_source=clearank&amp;utm_medium=cta&amp;utm_campaign=asset_longterm&amp;utm_content=trial7"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-faq",
   "title": "Questions people ask",
   "text": [
    "Answered from the figures on this page, as of October 22, 2026."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "ch-related",
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 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "Is Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) a buy right now?",
   "answer": "At 89/100, VTV lands in CleaRank's Strong Buy band. The trend carries the score: the price is 6.34% above its 200-day average and 0.93% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 5.35% above the 200-day. No factor pulls the score down. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) performed over the past year?",
   "answer": "VTV's price rose 20.15% over the last twelve months. The shorter stretches also rose, with 2.55% gained over three months and 1.35% over the past month. Right now the price is 1.59% below its 52-week high of $228.57."
  },
  {
   "question": "What does VTV cost to own?",
   "answer": "VTV has an expense ratio of 0.03%, which comes to $3.00 a year on a $10,000 holding. The fee is taken from the fund's assets rather than billed separately."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the largest sectors in VTV?",
   "answer": "Financial Services leads the fund at 23.3%, with Healthcare next at 16.1% and Technology third at 14.1%."
  },
  {
   "question": "Does VTV pay a dividend?",
   "answer": "Yes, VTV pays a distribution yield of 1.93%. Yield is the payout divided by the price, so the figure moves whenever either of those two changes."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key price levels for VTV?",
   "answer": "The nearest level above the price is the 52-week high at $228.57. On the way down, the price meets the 50-day SMA at $222.86 first, then the 20-day EMA at $221.60."
  },
  {
   "question": "How volatile is VTV?",
   "answer": "On an average day, VTV's price moves 0.53%. That number is the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the 52-week range of VTV?",
   "answer": "Over the past 52 weeks, VTV has moved between $182.81 and $228.57. At $224.94, the price stands at 92% of that span, 23.05% above the low and 1.59% below the high."
  },
  {
   "question": "Is VTV in an uptrend?",
   "answer": "Yes. Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) trades at $224.94, above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($222.86 and $211.54). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 62.8, showing bullish momentum without being overbought."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is VTV's biggest drop in the last 10 years?",
   "answer": "Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -30.8%, from February 2020 to March 2020 (with dividends reinvested). It regained that peak by December 2020, 9 months after the low. Over the same period, 85% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain."
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      "text": "At 89/100, VTV lands in CleaRank's Strong Buy band. The trend carries the score: the price is 6.34% above its 200-day average and 0.93% above its 50-day average, and the 50-day average is 5.35% above the 200-day. No factor pulls the score down. This describes the data on this page and is not a personal recommendation."
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      "text": "VTV's price rose 20.15% over the last twelve months. The shorter stretches also rose, with 2.55% gained over three months and 1.35% over the past month. Right now the price is 1.59% below its 52-week high of $228.57."
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     "name": "What are the largest sectors in VTV?",
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      "text": "Financial Services leads the fund at 23.3%, with Healthcare next at 16.1% and Technology third at 14.1%."
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     "name": "Does VTV pay a dividend?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Yes, VTV pays a distribution yield of 1.93%. Yield is the payout divided by the price, so the figure moves whenever either of those two changes."
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     "name": "What are the key price levels for VTV?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "The nearest level above the price is the 52-week high at $228.57. On the way down, the price meets the 50-day SMA at $222.86 first, then the 20-day EMA at $221.60."
     }
    },
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     "@type": "Question",
     "name": "How volatile is VTV?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "On an average day, VTV's price moves 0.53%. That number is the 30-day standard deviation of its daily returns."
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    },
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     "name": "What is the 52-week range of VTV?",
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      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Over the past 52 weeks, VTV has moved between $182.81 and $228.57. At $224.94, the price stands at 92% of that span, 23.05% above the low and 1.59% below the high."
     }
    },
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     "name": "Is VTV in an uptrend?",
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      "text": "Yes. Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) trades at $224.94, above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages ($222.86 and $211.54). Its 14-day RSI on daily closes is 62.8, showing bullish momentum without being overbought."
     }
    },
    {
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     "name": "What is VTV's biggest drop in the last 10 years?",
     "acceptedAnswer": {
      "@type": "Answer",
      "text": "Vanguard Value ETF (VTV)'s worst peak-to-trough fall over the last 10 years was -30.8%, from February 2020 to March 2020 (with dividends reinvested). It regained that peak by December 2020, 9 months after the low. Over the same period, 85% of 1-year holding periods ended with a gain."
     }
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}