{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/vnq-etf-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/vnq-etf-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) ETF Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) ETF: 0.13% expense ratio. $70.8B net assets. Real Estate. Vanguard. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)",
 "published": "2026-07-07T09:48:45+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-27T10:36:22.456+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-27T15:06:00.690Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "VNQ",
  "name": "Vanguard Real Estate ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 90.99,
  "previousClose": 91.17,
  "change": -0.18,
  "changePercent": -0.2,
  "open": 91.55,
  "high": 91.55,
  "low": 90.46,
  "volume": 6148800,
  "averageVolume": 4201860,
  "marketCap": 35085754368,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 101.8,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 86.84,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-27T10:36:22.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 28.486961,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0.03539239262684204,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 21.58,
  "macd": -1.56,
  "sma50": 97.07,
  "sma200": 94.35,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Strong Sell",
  "score": 15,
  "consensus": "Strong Sell",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 77.34,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-27T10:36:22.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 90.99,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 0.71,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bearish",
  "conservativeEntry": 92.81,
  "aggressiveEntry": 90.99,
  "stopLoss": 95.87,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.3,
  "targets": [
   88.17,
   83.53,
   78.89
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 71.93,
    "base": 94.07,
    "upside90th": 123.02
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 66.54,
    "base": 97.25,
    "upside90th": 142.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 63.16,
    "base": 100.54,
    "upside90th": 160.03
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 60.77,
    "base": 103.94,
    "upside90th": 177.78
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 58.97,
    "base": 107.45,
    "upside90th": 195.81
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 57.57,
    "base": 111.09,
    "upside90th": 214.37
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 56.46,
    "base": 114.85,
    "upside90th": 233.6
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 55.58,
    "base": 118.73,
    "upside90th": 253.64
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 54.87,
    "base": 122.75,
    "upside90th": 274.57
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 54.31,
    "base": 126.9,
    "upside90th": 296.5
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "VNQ Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$91.55",
    "Day Range": "$90.46 to $91.55",
    "Prev Close": "$91.17",
    "Volume": "6.15M",
    "52-Week Range": "$86.84 to $101.80",
    "Market Cap": "$35.09B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "VNQ Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "Vanguard Real Estate ETF is a real estate sector exchange-traded fund that provides diversified exposure to U.S. property-related companies. It is designed to track the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index, giving investors access to a broad mix of real estate investment trusts and real estate operating businesses across property types such as industrial, residential, retail, health care, self-storage, data centers, and communications infrastructure.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "VNQ",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "11.13%",
        "11.54%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "-2.48%",
        "9.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "1.68%",
        "8.50%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "8.63%",
        "14.73%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "9.61%",
        "9.62%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "1.47%",
        "3.81%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "4.87%",
        "5.85%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "VNQ Analysis",
   "text": [
    "VNQ is trading below its 50-day SMA of $97.07 and its 200-day SMA of $94.35, indicating a bearish trend. The 20-day EMA is at $94.13, also below the current price of $90.99. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 21.58, confirming an oversold condition. The Stochastic Oscillator at 8.59 further supports this oversold reading. MACD is negative at -1.56, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Volume has been above average recently, suggesting increased selling pressure.",
    "The outlook for VNQ is bearish in the short to medium term, driven by its oversold technical conditions and the underperformance of the real estate sector. The price trading below key moving averages and a very low RSI suggest that selling pressure is dominant. Macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate policies and potential economic slowdowns, could further pressure real estate investments. A sustained move above the 200-day SMA would be needed to signal a potential trend reversal."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider the significantly oversold RSI (21.58) as a potential indicator for a short-term bounce, but do not rely on it for a sustained trend change.",
     "Monitor the 200-day SMA at $94.35 as a key resistance level; a sustained break above this could signal a shift in momentum.",
     "Evaluate the broader macroeconomic environment for real estate, including interest rate trends and economic growth forecasts, as these will significantly impact sector performance."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.51",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.34",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.07",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.12"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "VNQ offers broad exposure to the U.S. real estate sector, with 99.45% allocated to Real Estate. The fund's strategy is to track the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index, encompassing various property types like industrial, residential, and retail. The sector's long-term performance has been notably weaker than its category average, with a 10-year return of 4.87% versus the category's 5.85%. The fund's expense ratio is a low 0.13%, costing $13.00 per $10,000 invested, and it holds $70.82 billion in net assets. The current dividend yield is approximately 3.74%.",
    "However, the underlying real estate sector companies are facing headwinds. The broad real estate sector's performance, as reflected in VNQ's trailing returns, has underperformed its category over multiple periods, including 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year horizons. This suggests that the aggregate performance of the companies held within the ETF is not currently strong, contributing to the fund's negative technical momentum.",
    "The primary risk for VNQ is its significant technical weakness, evidenced by its oversold RSI and price trading below key moving averages. Sector-specific risks include potential interest rate sensitivity and a slowdown in the commercial real estate market. Also, the underperformance relative to its category over longer time frames suggests potential structural issues within the real estate sector that could persist."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Net Assets (Market Cap)",
       "cells": [
        "35.09B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "3.74%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$91.55"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$90.46"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "101.80"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "86.84"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($97.07) above the 200-day SMA ($94.35), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 21.6 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "21.58"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.56"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "97.07"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "94.35"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "VNQ Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for rally",
    "Higher risk, chasing the move",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (21.6) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$88.17",
    "TARGET 2": "$83.53",
    "TARGET 3": "$78.89",
    "STOP LOSS": "$95.87"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+1.76%",
    "Average Feb return": "-0.48%",
    "Average Mar return": "-2.28%",
    "Average Apr return": "+1.92%",
    "Average May return": "+0.72%",
    "Average Jun return": "+0.32%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.64%",
    "Average Aug return": "+0.73%",
    "Average Sep return": "-3.67%",
    "Average Oct return": "-0.95%",
    "Average Nov return": "+3.57%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.62%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "0.71%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in VNQ in September 2016 would be worth about $10,363 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VNQ today could grow to about $13,946 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $32,585 and a bear case around $5,969. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "VNQ ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $104 for VNQ by 2030 in the base case, from $90.99 today (1.1x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $60.77. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VNQ's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using VNQ's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "VNQ simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$71.93",
        "$94.07",
        "$123"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$66.54",
        "$97.25",
        "$142"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$63.16",
        "$101",
        "$160"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$60.77",
        "$104",
        "$178"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$58.97",
        "$107",
        "$196"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$57.57",
        "$111",
        "$214"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$56.46",
        "$115",
        "$234"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$55.58",
        "$119",
        "$254"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$54.87",
        "$123",
        "$275"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$54.31",
        "$127",
        "$296"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/slvr-etf-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "ARKK ARK Innovation ETF CBOE $90.77 -1.01%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ark-innovation-arkk/"
    },
    {
     "text": "XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSE $196.27 +0.80%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/tech-select-sector-xlk/"
    },
    {
     "text": "IAU iShares Gold Trust NYSE $80.66 +0.45%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/iau-etf-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "IYW iShares U.S. Technology ETF NYSE $266.12 +0.68%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/iyw-etf-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "FDN First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund NYSE $291.61 -0.32%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/first-trust-dj-internet-fdn/"
    },
    {
     "text": "VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF NYSE $60.16 +0.48%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/vwo-etf-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF NYSE $180.88 -0.11%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ishares-broker-dealers-iai/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Popular Comparisons",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SCHD vs JEPI Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/schd-vs-jepi/"
    },
    {
     "text": "GLD vs SLV Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/gld-vs-slv/"
    },
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     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/ionq-vs-rgti/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)?",
   "answer": "The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) has an expense ratio of 0.13%, which translates to a cost of $13.00 per $10,000 invested. This low cost is a key feature for investors seeking long-term exposure to the real estate sector."
  },
  {
   "question": "What sectors does VNQ hold and how concentrated is it?",
   "answer": "VNQ is highly concentrated in the Real Estate sector, holding 99.45% in this asset class. Its strategy is to track the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index, providing diversified exposure across various property types such as industrial, residential, and retail."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the distribution yield for VNQ?",
   "answer": "The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) offers a distribution yield of approximately 3.74%, providing income to investors from its holdings in income-producing real estate assets."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has VNQ performed against its category over the past year?",
   "answer": "Over the past year, VNQ has returned 8.63%, while its category returned 14.73%, indicating underperformance. The fund's 1-month return was -2.48% compared to the category's 9.00%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical levels for VNQ?",
   "answer": "VNQ is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $97.07 and its 200-day SMA of $94.35. The RSI is significantly oversold at 21.58, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the insider and institutional activity in VNQ?",
   "answer": "While VNQ is an ETF and does not have traditional insider trading, institutional flows are reflected in its net assets, which stand at $70.82 billion. Recent volume has been above average, indicating significant institutional interest and trading activity."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the VNQ ETF price prediction for 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price prediction for VNQ in 2030 is $103.94. The downside scenario projects a price of $60.77, while the upside scenario reaches $177.78. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees."
  }
 ],
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    "change": "+1.02%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/slvr-etf-analysis/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "ARKK",
    "name": "ARK Innovation ETF CBOE",
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    "change": "-1.01%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ark-innovation-arkk/"
   },
   {
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/tech-select-sector-xlk/"
   },
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    "name": "iShares Gold Trust NYSE",
    "price": "$80.66",
    "change": "+0.45%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/iau-etf-analysis/"
   },
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    "ticker": "IYW",
    "name": "iShares U.S. Technology ETF NYSE",
    "price": "$266.12",
    "change": "+0.68%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/iyw-etf-analysis/"
   },
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    "change": "-0.32%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/first-trust-dj-internet-fdn/"
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    "ticker": "KEYS",
    "text": "Keysight Technologies, Inc.",
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