{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/vanguard-high-dividend-vym/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/vanguard-high-dividend-vym/data.json",
 "title": "Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VYM) ETF Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VYM) ETF: 0.04% expense ratio. $100.8B net assets. Large Value. Vanguard. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)",
 "published": "2026-05-31T09:12:03+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-27T03:01:30.167+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-27T15:25:34.229Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "VYM",
  "name": "Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 157.68,
  "previousClose": 156.92,
  "change": 0.76,
  "changePercent": 0.48,
  "open": 157.039993,
  "high": 157.87,
  "low": 156.63,
  "volume": 953300,
  "averageVolume": 1243660,
  "marketCap": 0,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 167.61,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 137.42,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-27T03:01:30.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 19.807043,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0.02249698718507524,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 23.22,
  "macd": -1.64,
  "sma50": 162.95,
  "sma200": 155.44,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 75,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 170.29,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-27T03:01:30.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 157.67999,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 0.46,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 154.53,
  "aggressiveEntry": 157.68,
  "stopLoss": 149.43,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.3,
  "targets": [
   162.25,
   169.98,
   177.71
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 137.65,
    "base": 169.82,
    "upside90th": 209.51
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 135.89,
    "base": 182.9,
    "upside90th": 246.15
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 136.91,
    "base": 196.98,
    "upside90th": 283.41
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 139.38,
    "base": 212.14,
    "upside90th": 322.9
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 142.85,
    "base": 228.48,
    "upside90th": 365.44
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 147.1,
    "base": 246.07,
    "upside90th": 411.62
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 152.03,
    "base": 265.02,
    "upside90th": 461.97
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 157.57,
    "base": 285.42,
    "upside90th": 517
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 163.7,
    "base": 307.4,
    "upside90th": 577.24
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 170.39,
    "base": 331.06,
    "upside90th": 643.24
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "VYM Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$157.04",
    "Day Range": "$156.63 to $157.87",
    "Prev Close": "$156.92",
    "Volume": "953.3K",
    "52-Week Range": "$137.42 to $167.61"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "VYM Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF is a passively managed exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index. The fund focuses on U.S. companies with dividend yields that are generally above average, excluding real estate investment trusts, and it is designed to provide broad exposure to large-cap value equities. Its portfolio is market-cap weighted and includes a diversified mix of sectors such as financials, healthcare, industrials, consumer staples, and technology.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "VYM",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "15.52%",
        "7.82%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "1.18%",
        "6.23%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "3.55%",
        "3.90%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "20.68%",
        "26.16%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "18.25%",
        "15.87%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "11.99%",
        "10.13%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "11.78%",
        "11.26%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "VYM Analysis",
   "text": [
    "At an RSI of 23.22, VYM is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce. The ETF is trading below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (160.72 and 162.95 respectively), indicating recent downward price pressure. However, it remains above its 200-day simple moving average of 155.44, suggesting the longer-term uptrend may still be intact. The MACD at -1.64 also points to bearish momentum, aligning with the oversold RSI reading.",
    "The outlook for VYM over the next 6-12 months is cautiously optimistic, driven by its oversold technical condition and strong long-term performance history. While current price action shows weakness below shorter-term moving averages, the ETF's ability to stay above the 200-day SMA suggests underlying support. The dividend yield of 2.33% provides an income cushion, and if the broader market sentiment shifts positively or interest rate expectations moderate, VYM could see a rebound. Investors should monitor the Financial Services and Technology sectors for signs of stabilization or renewed growth."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider VYM as a core income-generating holding within a diversified portfolio.",
     "Monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, as rising rates can pressure dividend stocks.",
     "The ETF's low expense ratio makes it an efficient vehicle for capturing high dividend yield exposure over the long term."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.85",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.70",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.10",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.15"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "VYM holds approximately 99.65% in stocks, with significant concentration in Financial Services (21.81%), Technology (17.13%), and Healthcare (13.22%). The fund's expense ratio is a very low 0.04%, costing investors $4.00 per $10,000 invested annually. With net assets of over $100.8 billion, VYM is a substantial ETF. Its strategy focuses on large-cap value equities, which tend to be more mature companies with stable dividend payouts, providing a defensive income component to a portfolio.",
    "Its underlying holdings are primarily large-cap value stocks. The Financial Services, Technology, and Healthcare sectors, which constitute the largest portions of VYM's portfolio, are generally expected to show stable to moderate earnings growth. The fund's focus on high dividend yield suggests it holds companies with mature earnings that are capable of returning capital to shareholders.",
    "The primary risk for VYM lies in its sector concentration, particularly in Financial Services and Technology, which could be susceptible to sector-specific downturns. Additionally, as an interest-rate sensitive ETF focused on dividend yield, VYM could underperform in a rising rate environment where bond yields become more attractive. The current oversold technical condition also implies a risk of further downside if broader market sentiment deteriorates."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Net Assets (Market Cap)",
       "cells": [
        "60.00B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Expense Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "0.0600%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "2.33%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$157.87"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$156.63"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "167.61"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "137.42"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($162.95) above the 200-day SMA ($155.44), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 23.2 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "23.22"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.64"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "162.95"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "155.44"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "VYM Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (23.2) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$162.25",
    "TARGET 2": "$169.98",
    "TARGET 3": "$177.71",
    "STOP LOSS": "$149.43"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+1.60%",
    "Average Feb return": "-0.32%",
    "Average Mar return": "-1.94%",
    "Average Apr return": "+1.70%",
    "Average May return": "+1.17%",
    "Average Jun return": "-0.36%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.29%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.01%",
    "Average Sep return": "-1.28%",
    "Average Oct return": "+0.70%",
    "Average Nov return": "+4.09%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.24%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "0.46%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in VYM in September 2016 would be worth about $21,937 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in VYM today could grow to about $20,996 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $40,794 and a bear case around $10,806. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "VYM ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $212 for VYM by 2030 in the base case, from $158 today (1.3x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $139. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on VYM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using VYM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "VYM simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$138",
        "$170",
        "$210"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$136",
        "$183",
        "$246"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$137",
        "$197",
        "$283"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$139",
        "$212",
        "$323"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$143",
        "$228",
        "$365"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$147",
        "$246",
        "$412"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$152",
        "$265",
        "$462"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$158",
        "$285",
        "$517"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$164",
        "$307",
        "$577"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$170",
        "$331",
        "$643"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "DIA State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust NYSE $517.49 +0.94%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/spdr-dow-jones-dia/"
    },
    {
     "text": "LIT Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF NYSE $69.02 +0.29%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/global-x-lithium-battery-lit/"
    },
    {
     "text": "IBB iShares Biotechnology ETF NASDAQ $209.77 +0.25%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ishares-biotechnology-ibb/"
    },
    {
     "text": "IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF NYSE $138.29 +0.37%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ijr-etf-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 NYSE $152.20 +1.47%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/upro-etf-analysis/"
    },
    {
     "text": "GRID First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund NASDAQ $179.57 +0.73%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/first-trust-grid/"
    },
    {
     "text": "GLDM SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust NYSE $84.89 +0.44%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/spdr-gold-minishares-gldm/"
    },
    {
     "text": "XLB State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSE $49.80 +0.24%",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/materials-select-sector-xlb/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Compare VYM",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "SCHD vs VYM Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/schd-vs-vym/"
    },
    {
     "text": "STZ vs TAP Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/stz-vs-tap/"
    },
    {
     "text": "SCHD vs VIG Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/schd-vs-vig/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)?",
   "answer": "The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) has a very low expense ratio of 0.04%, which translates to an annual cost of $4.00 for every $10,000 invested."
  },
  {
   "question": "What sectors does VYM concentrate its holdings in?",
   "answer": "VYM is concentrated in Financial Services (21.81%), Technology (17.13%), and Healthcare (13.22%), reflecting its focus on large-cap value companies that pay high dividends."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current dividend yield for VYM?",
   "answer": "The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) currently offers a dividend yield of 2.33%."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has VYM performed year-to-date compared to its category?",
   "answer": "Year-to-date, VYM has returned 15.52%, significantly outperforming its category return of 7.82%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical levels for VYM?",
   "answer": "VYM is currently trading at $157.68, below its 50-day SMA of $162.95 and its 20-day EMA of $160.72, but above its 200-day SMA of $155.44. Its RSI at 23.2, indicating oversold conditions."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the price prediction for VYM in 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price prediction for VYM in 2030 is $212.14. The downside and upside price projections are $139.38 and $322.90, respectively. These are statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the long-term outlook for the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF?",
   "answer": "The long-term outlook for VYM is positive, supported by its consistent performance over the past decade and its focus on dividend-paying large-cap value stocks. Its low expense ratio and broad diversification within its strategy contribute to its enduring appeal for income-seeking investors."
  }
 ],
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    "price": "$517.49",
    "change": "+0.94%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/spdr-dow-jones-dia/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "LIT",
    "name": "Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF NYSE",
    "price": "$69.02",
    "change": "+0.29%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/global-x-lithium-battery-lit/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "IBB",
    "name": "iShares Biotechnology ETF NASDAQ",
    "price": "$209.77",
    "change": "+0.25%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ishares-biotechnology-ibb/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "IJR",
    "name": "iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF NYSE",
    "price": "$138.29",
    "change": "+0.37%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/ijr-etf-analysis/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "UPRO",
    "name": "ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 NYSE",
    "price": "$152.20",
    "change": "+1.47%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/upro-etf-analysis/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "GRID",
    "name": "First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund NASDAQ",
    "price": "$179.57",
    "change": "+0.73%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/first-trust-grid/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "GLDM",
    "name": "SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust NYSE",
    "price": "$84.89",
    "change": "+0.44%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/spdr-gold-minishares-gldm/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "XLB",
    "name": "State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF NYSE",
    "price": "$49.80",
    "change": "+0.24%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/materials-select-sector-xlb/"
   }
  ],
  "comparisons": [
   {
    "ticker": "SCHD vs VYM Comparison",
    "name": "",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/schd-vs-vym/"
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   {
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    "name": "",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/schd-vs-vig/"
   }
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/exc-stock-analysis/"
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    "ticker": "GWW",
    "text": "W.W. Grainger Inc.",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/gww-stock-analysis/"
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  ],
  "Top Movers (24h)": [
   {
    "ticker": "TWLO",
    "text": "↓ 7.96%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/twlo-stock-analysis/"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "CRDO",
    "text": "↑ 7.65%",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/credo-crdo/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/crypto/the-graph-grt/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/crypto/sei-sei/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/nobl-etf-analysis/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/schwab-us-dividend-schd/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/vtv-etf-analysis/"
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