{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/spdr-sp-aerospace-defense-xar/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/spdr-sp-aerospace-defense-xar/data.json",
 "title": "SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) ETF Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense (XAR) ETF: 0.35% expense ratio. $5.9B net assets. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR)",
 "published": "2026-06-25T09:46:11+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-27T03:40:53.071+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-27T15:21:52.509Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "XAR",
  "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 239.46,
  "previousClose": 239.46,
  "change": 0,
  "changePercent": 0,
  "open": 240.31,
  "high": 242.020004,
  "low": 238.33,
  "volume": 226900,
  "averageVolume": 409500,
  "marketCap": 0,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 297.79001,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 215.020004,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-27T03:40:53.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 31.47009,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0.002154038795351264,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 23.96,
  "macd": -7.73,
  "sma50": 263.88,
  "sma200": 267.59,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Sell",
  "score": 25,
  "consensus": "Sell",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 220.3,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-27T03:40:53.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 239.46001,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.25,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bearish",
  "conservativeEntry": 244.25,
  "aggressiveEntry": 239.46,
  "stopLoss": 252.31,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.3,
  "targets": [
   232.04,
   219.82,
   207.61
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 192.75,
    "base": 265.75,
    "upside90th": 366.38
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 187.27,
    "base": 294.92,
    "upside90th": 464.45
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 187.66,
    "base": 327.29,
    "upside90th": 570.82
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 191.09,
    "base": 363.22,
    "upside90th": 690.4
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 196.59,
    "base": 403.1,
    "upside90th": 826.53
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 203.72,
    "base": 447.35,
    "upside90th": 982.33
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 212.27,
    "base": 496.45,
    "upside90th": 1161.09
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 222.15,
    "base": 550.95,
    "upside90th": 1366.4
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 233.32,
    "base": 611.43,
    "upside90th": 1602.29
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 245.79,
    "base": 678.55,
    "upside90th": 1873.3
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "XAR Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$240.31",
    "Day Range": "$238.33 to $242.02",
    "Prev Close": "$239.46",
    "Volume": "226.9K",
    "52-Week Range": "$215.02 to $297.79"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "XAR Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides focused exposure to U.S. aerospace and defense companies. The fund seeks to track the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index, using a sampling approach and an equal-weighted structure that reduces concentration in any single holding. Its portfolio typically includes companies involved in aircraft manufacturing, defense systems, aerospace components, and related industrial technologies.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 27, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "XAR",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "6.57%",
        "13.30%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "-3.11%",
        "9.31%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "-10.90%",
        "5.10%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "18.33%",
        "45.64%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "28.79%",
        "21.72%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "16.52%",
        "11.25%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "16.78%",
        "13.58%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "XAR Analysis",
   "text": [
    "At 23.96, XAR's RSI is significantly oversold, indicating significant selling pressure. The ETF is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at 263.88 and the 200-day SMA at 267.59, confirming a bearish trend. The 20-day EMA is also below the current price at 247.89.The Stochastic indicator at 16.89 further supports the oversold condition. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -80.66 also signals that the ETF is trading significantly below its typical range. Volume has been below average recently, with the latest volume at 226,900 compared to an average of 409,500, suggesting a lack of conviction from buyers at current levels.",
    "The outlook for the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) is currently bearish in the short term, given its significant technical weakness. The ETF is trading well below its key moving averages, and its RSI is significantly oversold, suggesting potential for further downside before any stabilization or recovery can occur.Over the next 6-12 months, the thesis for XAR hinges on a potential rebound in the broader industrials sector and specific catalysts within aerospace and defense, such as increased government spending or a recovery in commercial air travel. If these factors materialize, the ETF could see a recovery, but the current trend suggests caution is warranted. A move back above the 50-day SMA would be an initial sign of improving momentum."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider the high concentration risk in the aerospace and defense sector.",
     "Monitor government defense spending and commercial aviation trends for sector-specific catalysts.",
     "The current oversold technical conditions may present a contrarian buying opportunity if the broader market sentiment shifts.",
     "Compare XAR's long-term performance against its category to understand its historical effectiveness."
    ]
   },
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "CCI",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/cci-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.69",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.64",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.26",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.26"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "The State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) holds 99.93% in stocks, with its sector allocation entirely within Industrials, reflecting a focused investment strategy. The fund's overview highlights its aim to provide targeted exposure to U.S. aerospace and defense companies, utilizing an equal-weighted structure to reduce concentration risk within its holdings.The fund's net assets stand at $5.85 billion, with an expense ratio of 0.35%, costing investors $35.00 per $10,000 invested. While the sector is specialized, the broad nature of the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index provides some diversification within the industry. The current macro environment and geopolitical factors will likely influence the performance of this sector-specific ETF.",
    "However, the performance of its underlying holdings within the aerospace and defense sector is key. This sector is generally influenced by government defense spending, commercial aviation demand, and technological advancements. Recent trends in these areas would impact the aggregate performance of the companies held by XAR.The sector's overall earnings trends, driven by major players in aircraft manufacturing and defense systems, will dictate the fund's trajectory. Investors should monitor the financial health and growth prospects of the top companies within the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index to gauge the sector's earnings potential.",
    "The primary risk for XAR is its sector concentration within Industrials, specifically aerospace and defense. This focus makes the ETF highly susceptible to downturns in this particular industry, driven by factors such as reduced government defense budgets or a slowdown in commercial air travel.Also, the ETF's current technical setup presents significant downside risk, with the price trading well below key moving averages and showing oversold conditions. This suggests potential for further price depreciation in the short term."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.17%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$242.02"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$238.33"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "297.79"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "215.02"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $263.88, 200-day: $267.59), price is trading below the 50-day SMA, RSI at 24.0 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "23.96"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-7.73"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "263.88"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "267.59"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "XAR Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for rally",
    "Higher risk, chasing the move",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (24.0) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$232.04",
    "TARGET 2": "$219.82",
    "TARGET 3": "$207.61",
    "STOP LOSS": "$252.31"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+3.42%",
    "Average Feb return": "+2.05%",
    "Average Mar return": "-4.27%",
    "Average Apr return": "+1.14%",
    "Average May return": "+4.10%",
    "Average Jun return": "+1.20%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.37%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.21%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.48%",
    "Average Oct return": "+0.33%",
    "Average Nov return": "+4.77%",
    "Average Dec return": "+0.85%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.25%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in XAR in September 2016 would be worth about $41,095 today, compared with about $35,782 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XAR today could grow to about $28,337 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $78,230 and a bear case around $10,264. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "XAR ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $363 for XAR by 2030 in the base case, from $239 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $191. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XAR's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using XAR's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "XAR simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$193",
        "$266",
        "$366"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$187",
        "$295",
        "$464"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$188",
        "$327",
        "$571"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$191",
        "$363",
        "$690"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$197",
        "$403",
        "$827"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$204",
        "$447",
        "$982"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$212",
        "$496",
        "$1,161"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$222",
        "$551",
        "$1,366"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$233",
        "$611",
        "$1,602"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$246",
        "$679",
        "$1,873"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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   "id": "related-comparisons",
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  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the price prediction for XAR ETF in 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the projected base price for XAR ETF in 2030 is $363.22. The downside projection is $191.09, and the upside projection is $690.4. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF?",
   "answer": "The expense ratio for XAR is 0.35%, which translates to a cost of $35.00 per $10,000 invested annually. This fee covers the fund's management and operational costs."
  },
  {
   "question": "What sectors does the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF hold?",
   "answer": "The State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF is heavily concentrated in the Industrials sector, with 99.93% of its assets allocated to stocks within this industry. It specifically focuses on companies involved in aerospace and defense."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current distribution yield for XAR ETF?",
   "answer": "The current distribution yield for the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF is 0.31%."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has XAR performed against its category over different time periods?",
   "answer": "Year-to-date, XAR returned 6.57% compared to the category's 13.30%. Over the past year, XAR returned 18.33% versus the category's 45.64%. However, over 3, 5, and 10 years, XAR has outperformed its category with returns of 28.79%, 16.52%, and 16.78% respectively."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical levels for XAR ETF?",
   "answer": "XAR is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $263.88 and its 200-day SMA of $267.59, indicating a bearish trend. The RSI is at 23.96, signaling oversold conditions, and the Stochastic indicator is also in oversold territory."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the insider and institutional activity for XAR ETF?",
   "answer": "As an ETF, XAR does not have insider trading in the same way a company does. Institutional activity is reflected in fund flows and asset under management, which currently stand at $5.85 billion. Recent volume has been below average, suggesting subdued institutional interest."
  }
 ],
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    "ticker": "GWW",
    "text": "W.W. Grainger Inc.",
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/crypto/the-graph-grt/"
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 ]
}