{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/mtum-etf-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/mtum-etf-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor (MTUM) ETF: 0.15% expense ratio. $24.2B net assets. Large Blend. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM)",
 "published": "2026-08-18T06:31:05+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-10T07:29:03.068+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:40:48.751Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "MTUM",
  "name": "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "CBOE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 303.15,
  "previousClose": 309.29,
  "change": -6.14,
  "changePercent": -1.99,
  "open": 305.16,
  "high": 306.67001,
  "low": 303.13,
  "volume": 831164,
  "averageVolume": 819346,
  "marketCap": 0,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 345.59,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 229.42,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-10T07:29:02.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 28.220135,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0.004629509783048162,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 55.53,
  "macd": -1.36,
  "sma50": 308.86,
  "sma200": 279.59,
  "rsiSignal": "Neutral",
  "trend": "Bullish",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 75,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 327.4,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T07:29:02.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 303.14999,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.64,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 297.09,
  "aggressiveEntry": 303.15,
  "stopLoss": 288.17,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   311.94,
   326.8,
   341.65
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 253.92,
    "base": 336.15,
    "upside90th": 445.01
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 250.67,
    "base": 372.74,
    "upside90th": 554.26
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 254.24,
    "base": 413.31,
    "upside90th": 671.91
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 261.5,
    "base": 458.3,
    "upside90th": 803.21
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 271.38,
    "base": 508.19,
    "upside90th": 951.63
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 283.44,
    "base": 563.51,
    "upside90th": 1120.32
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 297.45,
    "base": 624.85,
    "upside90th": 1312.59
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 313.35,
    "base": 692.86,
    "upside90th": 1532
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 331.13,
    "base": 768.28,
    "upside90th": 1782.53
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 350.84,
    "base": 851.91,
    "upside90th": 2068.63
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "MTUM Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$305.16",
    "Day Range": "$303.13 to $306.67",
    "Prev Close": "$309.29",
    "Volume": "831.2K",
    "52-Week Range": "$229.42 to $345.59"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "MTUM Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track an index of U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks with relatively high price momentum. The fund is designed to provide diversified exposure to companies whose shares have shown strong recent performance, using a rules-based momentum approach rather than active stock picking. It primarily invests in U.S.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 10, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "MTUM",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "20.23%",
        "5.14%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "0.22%",
        "9.43%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "-4.83%",
        "3.42%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "24.07%",
        "27.72%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "27.87%",
        "19.34%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "11.76%",
        "11.20%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "15.88%",
        "13.77%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "MTUM Analysis",
   "text": [
    "At $309.29, MTUM is trading above its 20-day EMA ($304.93), 50-day SMA ($308.86), and 200-day SMA ($279.59), indicating a bullish trend. The RSI is at 55.53, which is neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The Stochastic indicator is high at 90.22, indicating strong upward momentum but potentially nearing overbought territory. The MACD is currently negative at -1.36, suggesting a recent slowdown in momentum, but the price action above key averages remains positive.",
    "The outlook for MTUM over the next 6-12 months is cautiously optimistic, supported by its strong technical positioning and the continued strength in the technology sector. The fund's momentum strategy is well-suited for periods of market leadership by growth stocks. However, any significant rotation away from growth towards value or defensive sectors could challenge this outlook. Key levels to watch include the current price as support and potential resistance near the $320 to $330 range."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider MTUM for exposure to U.S. large and mid-cap stocks with strong price momentum.",
     "Monitor sector concentration, particularly in Technology, for potential risks.",
     "Be aware of the fund's momentum-based strategy, which may underperform during market regime shifts."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.83",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.89",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.34",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.19"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) holds 99.69% in stocks, with significant concentration in the Technology sector at 51.40%. This focus on technology, along with substantial allocations to Industrials (10.75%) and Healthcare (10.16%), reflects a strategy geared towards growth sectors. The fund's expense ratio is 0.15%, costing $15 per $10,000 invested annually. With net assets of $24.23 billion, MTUM is a substantial ETF. The underlying sector performance, particularly in technology, is a key driver for the fund's returns.",
    "Its performance is influenced by the earnings trends of its underlying holdings. The recent earnings report for MTUM showed a positive surprise percentage of 94.56% on an estimated EPS of -10.85, with an actual EPS of -0.59. This suggests that the aggregate performance of the fund's constituents is exceeding expectations, contributing to its overall market position.",
    "The primary risk for MTUM lies in its high concentration within the Technology sector (51.40%), making it vulnerable to sector-specific downturns or regulatory changes impacting tech companies. Additionally, the fund's momentum strategy means it could underperform if market leadership shifts away from high-momentum stocks towards value or defensive sectors. The high Stochastic reading (90.22) also suggests a potential for short-term pullbacks."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.5994%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$306.67"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$303.13"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "345.59"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "229.42"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Neutral RSI Neutral SMA Cross Bullish Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Golden Cross in effect with the 50-day SMA ($308.86) above the 200-day SMA ($279.59), price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Neutral",
    "SMA Cross": "Bullish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "55.53"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.36"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "308.86"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "279.59"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "MTUM Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (55.5) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$311.94",
    "TARGET 2": "$326.80",
    "TARGET 3": "$341.65",
    "STOP LOSS": "$288.17"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.92%",
    "Average Feb return": "-0.70%",
    "Average Mar return": "-2.54%",
    "Average Apr return": "+3.18%",
    "Average May return": "+3.35%",
    "Average Jun return": "+2.32%",
    "Average Jul return": "+0.91%",
    "Average Aug return": "+2.50%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.76%",
    "Average Oct return": "+0.42%",
    "Average Nov return": "+2.81%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.13%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.64%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in MTUM in September 2016 would be worth about $40,298 today, compared with about $35,241 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in MTUM today could grow to about $28,102 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $68,238 and a bear case around $11,573. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "MTUM ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $458 for MTUM by 2030 in the base case, from $303 today (1.5x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $262. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on MTUM's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using MTUM's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "MTUM simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$254",
        "$336",
        "$445"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$251",
        "$373",
        "$554"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$254",
        "$413",
        "$672"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$262",
        "$458",
        "$803"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$271",
        "$508",
        "$952"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$283",
        "$564",
        "$1,120"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$297",
        "$625",
        "$1,313"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$313",
        "$693",
        "$1,532"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$331",
        "$768",
        "$1,783"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$351",
        "$852",
        "$2,069"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
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   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the price prediction for MTUM ETF in 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price for MTUM in 2030 is $467.58. The downside scenario projects a price of $266.80, while the upside scenario reaches $819.48. These figures represent statistical outcomes and are not price targets or guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF?",
   "answer": "The expense ratio for MTUM is 0.15%. This means that for every $10,000 invested, you would pay $15 annually in fees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What sectors does the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF primarily hold?",
   "answer": "MTUM is heavily concentrated in Technology stocks, representing 51.40% of its holdings. Other significant sectors include Industrials at 10.75% and Healthcare at 10.16%."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has MTUM performed against its category over the past year?",
   "answer": "Over the past year, MTUM returned 24.07%, while its category returned 27.72%. This indicates that the fund underperformed its category benchmark during that period."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current dividend yield for MTUM?",
   "answer": "The current dividend yield for MTUM is 0.60%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical indicators for MTUM?",
   "answer": "MTUM shows a bullish trend with its price above the 20-day EMA, 50-day SMA, and 200-day SMA. The RSI is neutral at 55.53, and the Stochastic indicator is high at 90.22, suggesting strong momentum."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the overall strategy of the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF?",
   "answer": "MTUM seeks to track an index of U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks with relatively high price momentum, providing diversified exposure to companies with strong recent performance using a rules-based approach."
  }
 ],
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   },
   {
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/hewlett-packard-enterprise-hpe/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/rsp-etf-analysis/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/schb-etf-analysis/"
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/invesco-sp-500-momentum-spmo/"
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