{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/iau-etf-analysis/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/iau-etf-analysis/data.json",
 "title": "iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "iShares Gold Trust (IAU) ETF: 0.25% expense ratio. $67.5B net assets. Commodities Focused. iShares. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "iShares Gold Trust (IAU)",
 "published": "2026-07-18T09:51:16+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-16T09:16:19.073+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-16T10:08:55.434Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "IAU",
  "name": "iShares Gold Trust",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 80.78,
  "previousClose": 80.54,
  "change": 0.24,
  "changePercent": 0.3,
  "open": 80.6,
  "high": 81.040001,
  "low": 80.32,
  "volume": 3245800,
  "averageVolume": 5793560,
  "marketCap": 85441110016,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 104.4,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 66.61,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-16T09:16:19.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": null,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 27.94,
  "macd": -0.02,
  "sma50": 80.3,
  "sma200": 85.24,
  "rsiSignal": "Oversold",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Neutral",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Buy",
  "score": 70,
  "consensus": "Buy",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 87.24,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T09:16:19.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 80.78,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.72,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bullish",
  "conservativeEntry": 79.16,
  "aggressiveEntry": 80.78,
  "stopLoss": 76.55,
  "stopLossPercent": 3.3,
  "targets": [
   83.12,
   87.08,
   91.04
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 71.87,
    "base": 88.63,
    "upside90th": 109.3
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 72.3,
    "base": 97.25,
    "upside90th": 130.8
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 74.22,
    "base": 106.7,
    "upside90th": 153.39
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 76.99,
    "base": 117.07,
    "upside90th": 178.03
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 80.39,
    "base": 128.45,
    "upside90th": 205.24
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 84.35,
    "base": 140.94,
    "upside90th": 235.49
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 88.82,
    "base": 154.63,
    "upside90th": 269.22
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 93.79,
    "base": 169.66,
    "upside90th": 306.92
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 99.27,
    "base": 186.16,
    "upside90th": 349.08
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 105.28,
    "base": 204.25,
    "upside90th": 396.26
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 8,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "IAU Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$80.60",
    "Day Range": "$80.32 to $81.04",
    "Prev Close": "$80.54",
    "Volume": "3.25M",
    "52-Week Range": "$66.61 to $104.40",
    "Market Cap": "$85.44B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "IAU Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "iShares Gold Trust is a commodity exchange-traded fund designed to provide direct exposure to the price of gold through physically held bullion. The trust’s shares are backed by allocated gold bars, making it a straightforward vehicle for investors seeking a simple way to track gold market movements without handling storage, security, or insurance logistics.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 16, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "IAU",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "5.74%",
        "29.92%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "13.29%",
        "3.11%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "0.30%",
        "11.90%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "32.73%",
        "71.37%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "32.61%",
        "17.21%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "19.95%",
        "12.75%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "13.02%",
        "7.26%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "IAU Analysis",
   "text": [
    "As of September 2026, IAU is trading at $80.78, below its 50-day SMA of $80.30 and its 200-day SMA of $85.24. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 27.94, indicating an oversold condition. The MACD is slightly negative at -0.02, and the Stochastic indicator is at 8.93, also suggesting bearish momentum. The nearest support level is the current price, while resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA of $80.30 and the 200-day SMA of $85.24.",
    "The outlook for the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is cautiously optimistic, driven by its current oversold technical conditions. Trading below its 200-day SMA and with an RSI of 27.94, IAU presents a potential opportunity for a rebound in gold prices. The fund's long-term returns have been competitive, outperforming its category over 3 and 5-year periods, suggesting resilience. However, the significant underperformance year-to-date compared to its category warrants attention. A shift in macroeconomic factors, such as rising inflation or geopolitical uncertainty, could drive gold prices higher, benefiting IAU."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider IAU as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.",
     "Monitor gold price trends and macroeconomic indicators for potential entry and exit points.",
     "Compare IAU's performance against other gold ETFs and broader commodity funds.",
     "Be aware of the fund's expense ratio and its impact on long-term returns.",
     "Utilize the oversold RSI as a potential signal for a short-term buying opportunity."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.18",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.20",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.13",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.98"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is backed by allocated gold bars, providing direct exposure to the precious metal. Its expense ratio is 0.25%, costing $25.00 per $10,000 invested annually. The fund has substantial net assets of $67.54 billion. While the fund's YTD return is 5.74%, its category average return is 29.92%, highlighting a significant underperformance in the current year. The fund's strategy is to mirror gold's daily price fluctuations, serving as a liquid investment vehicle for precious metals within a diversified portfolio.",
    "Its performance is directly tied to the spot price of gold. The sector's performance is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical stability. While IAU's YTD return is 5.74%, the broader commodity sector, as indicated by its category return of 29.92%, has seen stronger performance, suggesting that gold may be lagging other commodities or that the fund's tracking has diverged from the category average.",
    "The primary risk for IAU is the inherent volatility of gold prices, which can be influenced by global economic conditions, central bank policies, and market sentiment. The fund's current trading below its 200-day SMA and its oversold RSI suggest potential downside risk, although it also presents a potential buying opportunity. Concentration risk is also a factor, as the fund's performance is solely dependent on the price movement of a single commodity."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Net Assets (Market Cap)",
       "cells": [
        "85.44B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$81.04"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$80.32"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "104.40"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "66.61"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Oversold SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Neutral Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $80.30, 200-day: $85.24), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture, RSI at 27.9 suggests oversold conditions; potential bounce setup."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Oversold",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Neutral"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "27.94"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-0.02"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "80.30"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "85.24"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "IAU Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for pullback",
    "Higher risk, immediate entry",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (27.9) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$83.12",
    "TARGET 2": "$87.08",
    "TARGET 3": "$91.04",
    "STOP LOSS": "$76.55"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.85%",
    "Average Feb return": "+0.68%",
    "Average Mar return": "+0.86%",
    "Average Apr return": "+1.06%",
    "Average May return": "+1.01%",
    "Average Jun return": "-2.25%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.22%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.66%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.76%",
    "Average Oct return": "+1.28%",
    "Average Nov return": "-0.78%",
    "Average Dec return": "+1.74%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.72%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in IAU in September 2016 would be worth about $31,954 today, compared with about $35,497 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in IAU today could grow to about $25,285 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $49,055 and a bear case around $13,033. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "IAU ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $117 for IAU by 2030 in the base case, from $80.78 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $76.99. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on IAU's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using IAU's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "IAU simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$71.87",
        "$88.63",
        "$109"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$72.30",
        "$97.25",
        "$131"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$74.22",
        "$107",
        "$153"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$76.99",
        "$117",
        "$178"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$80.39",
        "$128",
        "$205"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$84.35",
        "$141",
        "$235"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$88.82",
        "$155",
        "$269"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$93.79",
        "$170",
        "$307"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$99.27",
        "$186",
        "$349"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$105",
        "$204",
        "$396"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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  },
  {
   "id": "related-comparisons",
   "title": "Compare IAU",
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "GLD vs IAU Comparison Head-to-head analysis →",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/compare/gld-vs-iau/"
    },
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  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the iShares Gold Trust (IAU)?",
   "answer": "The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has an expense ratio of 0.25%, which translates to an annual cost of $25.00 for every $10,000 invested. This fee covers the management and operational costs of the fund."
  },
  {
   "question": "What sectors does the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) hold?",
   "answer": "The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a commodity-focused ETF that holds physical gold bullion. Its asset allocation is concentrated in gold, with 'others' making up 1% of its allocation, reflecting its singular focus on the precious metal."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the distribution yield for the iShares Gold Trust (IAU)?",
   "answer": "The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has a distribution yield of 0% and a dividend rate of 0%. This indicates that the fund does not distribute income to shareholders but rather aims to track the price performance of gold."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) performed against its category over different periods?",
   "answer": "As of September 2026, IAU's YTD return is 5.74% compared to its category's 29.92%. Over 1 year, IAU returned 32.73% versus the category's 71.37%. Over 3 years, IAU returned 32.61% versus the category's 17.21%, and over 5 years, IAU returned 19.95% versus the category's 12.75%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current price prediction for IAU ETF in 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the median price projection for IAU in 2030 is $117.07, with a downside projection of $76.99. These figures are statistical simulation outcomes and not price targets or guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical indicators for IAU as of September 2026?",
   "answer": "As of September 2026, IAU exhibits an oversold RSI at 27.9, is trading above its 50-day SMA ($80.30) and 200-day SMA ($85.24), and has a slightly negative MACD. The Stochastic indicator is also low at 8.93."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the overview of the iShares Gold Trust's strategy?",
   "answer": "The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is structured to provide investors with direct exposure to the price of gold through physically held bullion. It aims to offer a simple, transparent, and liquid way to track gold market movements without the complexities of physical storage, security, or insurance."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the main risks associated with investing in IAU?",
   "answer": "The primary risks include the inherent volatility of gold prices, influenced by global economic factors and central bank policies, and concentration risk as the fund's performance is tied to a single commodity. Current technical indicators suggest potential for further downside or a rebound from oversold levels."
  }
 ],
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    "ticker": "VRSK",
    "text": "Verisk Analytics, Inc.",
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