{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/consumer-discretionary-xly/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/consumer-discretionary-xly/data.json",
 "title": "Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ETF Forecast (2026)",
 "description": "State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) ETF: 0.08% expense ratio. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY)",
 "published": "2026-06-07T09:14:15+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-15T10:04:18.208+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-16T10:10:25.584Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "XLY",
  "name": "State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 112.85,
  "previousClose": 112.96,
  "change": -0.11,
  "changePercent": -0.1,
  "open": 112.31,
  "high": 113.28,
  "low": 112.11,
  "volume": 5276300,
  "averageVolume": 5694530,
  "marketCap": 14272828416,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 125.010002,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 105.19,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-15T10:04:18.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": 24.684465,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0.008260214347913639,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 30.32,
  "macd": -1.04,
  "sma50": 115.85,
  "sma200": 116.98,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Neutral",
  "pricePosition": "Bearish",
  "macdSignal": "Bearish",
  "rating": "Bearish"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Sell",
  "score": 25,
  "consensus": "Sell",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 103.82,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:04:18.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 112.85,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 0.95,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Bearish",
  "conservativeEntry": 115.11,
  "aggressiveEntry": 112.85,
  "stopLoss": 118.56,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   109.35,
   103.6,
   97.84
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 92.56,
    "base": 123.16,
    "upside90th": 163.87
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 89.75,
    "base": 134.41,
    "upside90th": 201.3
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 89.45,
    "base": 146.69,
    "upside90th": 240.57
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 90.43,
    "base": 160.09,
    "upside90th": 283.42
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 92.26,
    "base": 174.72,
    "upside90th": 330.89
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 94.73,
    "base": 190.68,
    "upside90th": 383.81
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 97.75,
    "base": 208.1,
    "upside90th": 443.03
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 101.26,
    "base": 227.11,
    "upside90th": 509.4
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 105.22,
    "base": 247.86,
    "upside90th": 583.85
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 109.64,
    "base": 270.51,
    "upside90th": 667.42
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 8,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "XLY Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$112.31",
    "Day Range": "$112.11 to $113.28",
    "Prev Close": "$112.96",
    "Volume": "5.28M",
    "52-Week Range": "$105.19 to $125.01",
    "Market Cap": "$14.27B"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "XLY Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF is an exchange-traded fund that provides targeted exposure to large-cap U.S. consumer discretionary companies. It seeks to track the performance of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index, giving investors diversified access to businesses tied to non-essential spending across retail, media, hotels, restaurants, leisure, apparel, automobiles, and related services.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 15, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "XLY",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.95%",
        "-1.29%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "0.48%",
        "7.91%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "-3.36%",
        "-1.59%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "1.42%",
        "14.89%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "11.85%",
        "13.04%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "5.76%",
        "2.49%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "12.37%",
        "10.82%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "XLY Analysis",
   "text": [
    "XLY is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average of $115.85 and its 200-day simple moving average of $116.98, indicating a bearish trend. The price is also below the 20-day exponential moving average of $115.04. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30.32, which is considered bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator is at 24.24, suggesting oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -1.04, further supporting a negative short-term outlook.",
    "The outlook for XLY is cautiously bearish in the short to medium term, given its current technical positioning below key moving averages and bearish momentum indicators. The ETF's heavy concentration in consumer discretionary stocks makes it sensitive to economic slowdowns, which could further pressure prices. A potential catalyst for a turnaround would be a significant improvement in consumer confidence or a shift in monetary policy easing that stimulates spending. However, without such catalysts, XLY may continue to face headwinds, potentially testing lower support levels."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Monitor consumer confidence and retail sales data closely for signs of a potential rebound in discretionary spending.",
     "Consider the ETF's high concentration in consumer cyclicals as a key risk factor, especially in uncertain economic environments.",
     "Evaluate the performance of the underlying S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index for broader sector trends.",
     "Compare XLY's expense ratio and performance against other consumer discretionary ETFs."
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.85",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.79",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.32",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.08"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is a significant vehicle for gaining exposure to the consumer cyclical sector, which constitutes 98.83% of its holdings. This sector is sensitive to economic cycles, and its performance is closely tied to consumer confidence and disposable income. The fund's net assets stand at $22.75 billion, with an expense ratio of 0.08%, costing $8.00 per $10,000 invested. The ETF's overview highlights its role in providing diversified access to companies involved in retail, media, hotels, restaurants, and automobiles, making it a barometer for non-essential consumer spending.",
    "Its performance is influenced by the aggregate earnings trends of the consumer discretionary companies it holds. As of September 2026, the ETF's year-to-date return is -1.95%, suggesting that the underlying companies may be facing headwinds or slower earnings growth compared to previous periods. The fund's trailing 1-year return of 1.42% also lags its category's 14.88%, potentially reflecting a broader slowdown in consumer spending or sector-specific challenges impacting earnings expectations.",
    "The primary risk for XLY lies in its high concentration within the consumer cyclical sector, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and shifts in consumer spending habits. A significant portion of its assets are in companies whose performance is directly tied to discretionary purchases, which are often the first to be cut during periods of economic uncertainty. Also, the ETF's current technical indicators, including its position below key moving averages and a bearish RSI, suggest potential for further downside risk in the short term."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Net Assets (Market Cap)",
       "cells": [
        "14.27B"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Expense Ratio",
       "cells": [
        "0.0900%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.80%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$113.28"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$112.11"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "125.01"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "105.19"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Bearish RSI Bearish SMA Cross Neutral Price vs SMA Bearish MACD Bearish Price is trading below the 50-day SMA."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bearish",
    "SMA Cross": "Neutral",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bearish",
    "MACD": "Bearish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "30.32"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "-1.04"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "115.85"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "116.98"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "XLY Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Lower risk, wait for rally",
    "Higher risk, chasing the move",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (30.3) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$109.35",
    "TARGET 2": "$103.60",
    "TARGET 3": "$97.84",
    "STOP LOSS": "$118.56"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.81%",
    "Average Feb return": "-2.15%",
    "Average Mar return": "-1.78%",
    "Average Apr return": "+3.31%",
    "Average May return": "+1.16%",
    "Average Jun return": "+1.88%",
    "Average Jul return": "+3.04%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.68%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.64%",
    "Average Oct return": "-0.84%",
    "Average Nov return": "+4.16%",
    "Average Dec return": "-0.80%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "0.95%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in XLY in September 2016 would be worth about $28,577 today, compared with about $35,344 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in XLY today could grow to about $23,970 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $59,142 and a bear case around $9,715. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "XLY ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $160 for XLY by 2030 in the base case, from $113 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $90.43. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on XLY's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using XLY's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "XLY simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$92.56",
        "$123",
        "$164"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$89.75",
        "$134",
        "$201"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$89.45",
        "$147",
        "$241"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$90.43",
        "$160",
        "$283"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$92.26",
        "$175",
        "$331"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$94.73",
        "$191",
        "$384"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$97.75",
        "$208",
        "$443"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$101",
        "$227",
        "$509"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$105",
        "$248",
        "$584"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$110",
        "$271",
        "$667"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "people-also-watch",
   "title": "People Also Watch",
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  },
  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the XLY ETF and what does it cost per $10,000 invested?",
   "answer": "The XLY ETF has an expense ratio of 0.08%. This translates to a cost of $8.00 per $10,000 invested annually."
  },
  {
   "question": "What sectors does the XLY ETF hold and how concentrated is it?",
   "answer": "The XLY ETF is heavily concentrated in the Consumer Cyclical sector, representing 98.83% of its holdings. A small portion, 1.17%, is allocated to the Technology sector."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the distribution yield for the XLY ETF?",
   "answer": "The XLY ETF has a distribution yield of 0.78%."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has the XLY ETF performed against its category over different periods?",
   "answer": "In the year-to-date period, XLY returned -1.95% compared to its category's -1.29%. Over the past year, XLY returned 1.42% while its category returned 14.88%. The 3-year trailing return for XLY is 11.85% versus 13.04% for its category, and over 10 years, XLY has returned 12.37% compared to the category's 10.82%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the key technical levels for the XLY ETF?",
   "answer": "XLY is currently trading below its 50-day SMA of $115.85 and its 200-day SMA of $116.98. The 20-day EMA is at $115.04. The RSI is at 30.32, indicating bearish momentum, and the Stochastic Oscillator is at 24.24, suggesting oversold conditions."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the price prediction for the XLY ETF in 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price prediction for XLY in 2030 is $160.09. The downside scenario suggests a price of $90.43, while the upside scenario projects $283.42. These are statistical simulation outcomes, not price targets or guarantees."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current price and recent trading volume for XLY?",
   "answer": "As of September 15, 2026, XLY is trading at $112.85. The latest trading volume was 5,276,300, which is 7.3% below its average volume."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the insider and institutional activity for XLY?",
   "answer": "Data on insider and institutional activity for XLY is not provided in the current dataset."
  }
 ],
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   },
   {
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