{
 "@context": "https://clearank.com/llms.txt",
 "@type": "clearank:AssetAnalysis",
 "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/abrdn-physical-gold-sgol/",
 "dataUrl": "https://clearank.com/etf/abrdn-physical-gold-sgol/data.json",
 "title": "abrdn Physical (SGOL) ETF Forecast & Price Target (2026)",
 "description": "abrdn Physical Gold Shares (SGOL) ETF: 0.17% expense ratio. $7.7B net assets. Commodities Focused. Fund facts, AI rating, technicals and 2030 projection.",
 "headline": "abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL)",
 "published": "2026-07-26T09:52:46+00:00",
 "modified": "2026-09-11T13:12:28.751+00:00",
 "generated": "2026-09-11T20:43:37.692Z",
 "language": "en-US",
 "publisher": {
  "name": "CleaRank",
  "url": "https://clearank.com/"
 },
 "disclaimer": "Educational and informational only; not financial advice. AI-generated analysis reviewed by the CleaRank editorial team; prices delayed up to 15 minutes.",
 "asset": {
  "ticker": "SGOL",
  "name": "abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF",
  "type": "ETF",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "currency": "USD",
  "sector": null,
  "industry": null,
  "country": "United States",
  "website": null
 },
 "quote": {
  "price": 41.16,
  "previousClose": 41.88,
  "change": -0.72,
  "changePercent": -1.72,
  "open": 41.48,
  "high": 41.64,
  "low": 41.060001,
  "volume": 3210100,
  "averageVolume": 2757860,
  "marketCap": 0,
  "fiftyTwoWeekHigh": 52.84,
  "fiftyTwoWeekLow": 32.43,
  "marketOpen": false,
  "asOf": "2026-09-11T13:12:27.000Z"
 },
 "statistics": {
  "pe": null,
  "eps": null,
  "dividendYield": 0,
  "beta": null,
  "priceToSales": null,
  "priceToBook": null,
  "revenueTtm": 0,
  "grossMargin": null,
  "returnOnEquity": null
 },
 "technicals": {
  "rsi": 38.42,
  "macd": 0.24,
  "sma50": 40.55,
  "sma200": 43.13,
  "rsiSignal": "Bearish",
  "trend": "Bearish",
  "pricePosition": "Bullish",
  "macdSignal": "Bullish",
  "rating": "Neutral"
 },
 "analysis": {
  "rating": "Hold",
  "score": 55,
  "consensus": "Hold",
  "fairValue": null,
  "analystTarget": 42.39,
  "analystCount": null,
  "wallStreetConsensus": "",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T13:12:27.000Z",
  "priceAtAnalysis": 41.16,
  "volatility": {
   "daily": 1.73,
   "risk": "etf"
  }
 },
 "tradePlan": {
  "bias": "Neutral",
  "conservativeEntry": 40.75,
  "aggressiveEntry": 41.16,
  "stopLoss": 39.53,
  "stopLossPercent": 3,
  "targets": [
   41.97,
   42.79,
   44.01
  ]
 },
 "projections": {
  "basis": "Monte Carlo simulation on historical return distribution, re-run daily; not price targets",
  "years": [
   {
    "year": 2027,
    "downside10th": 36.61,
    "base": 45.15,
    "upside90th": 55.69
   },
   {
    "year": 2028,
    "downside10th": 36.83,
    "base": 49.54,
    "upside90th": 66.63
   },
   {
    "year": 2029,
    "downside10th": 37.79,
    "base": 54.34,
    "upside90th": 78.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2030,
    "downside10th": 39.2,
    "base": 59.62,
    "upside90th": 90.67
   },
   {
    "year": 2031,
    "downside10th": 40.92,
    "base": 65.4,
    "upside90th": 104.52
   },
   {
    "year": 2032,
    "downside10th": 42.93,
    "base": 71.75,
    "upside90th": 119.91
   },
   {
    "year": 2033,
    "downside10th": 45.2,
    "base": 78.71,
    "upside90th": 137.07
   },
   {
    "year": 2034,
    "downside10th": 47.72,
    "base": 86.35,
    "upside90th": 156.24
   },
   {
    "year": 2035,
    "downside10th": 50.5,
    "base": 94.72,
    "upside90th": 177.68
   },
   {
    "year": 2036,
    "downside10th": 53.55,
    "base": 103.92,
    "upside90th": 201.66
   }
  ]
 },
 "faqCount": 7,
 "sources": [
  "TwelveData",
  "Wall Street consensus"
 ],
 "sections": [
  {
   "id": "price",
   "title": "SGOL Price Analysis"
  },
  {
   "id": "market-metrics",
   "title": "Market Metrics",
   "facts": {
    "Open": "$41.48",
    "Day Range": "$41.06 to $41.64",
    "Prev Close": "$41.88",
    "Volume": "3.21M",
    "52-Week Range": "$32.43 to $52.84"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "mi-fund-facts",
   "title": "SGOL Fund Facts",
   "text": [
    "Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investors with a straightforward and efficient method to access the gold market. The primary function of this ETF is to track the price of gold bullion by holding physical gold bars in secured vaults, thus closely mirroring fluctuations in the metal's market prices.",
    "Fund reference data as of Sep 11, 2026. Expense ratio and net assets are reported by the fund; returns are total returns and can differ from price change."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [
      "Period",
      "SGOL",
      "Category"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "YTD",
       "cells": [
        "5.80%",
        "29.92%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 month",
       "cells": [
        "13.30%",
        "3.11%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 months",
       "cells": [
        "0.33%",
        "11.90%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "1 year",
       "cells": [
        "32.83%",
        "71.37%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "3 years",
       "cells": [
        "32.71%",
        "17.21%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "5 years",
       "cells": [
        "20.04%",
        "12.75%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "10 years",
       "cells": [
        "13.05%",
        "7.26%"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "analysis",
   "title": "SGOL Analysis",
   "text": [
    "As of September 2026, SGOL is trading above its 50-day SMA ($40.55) of $40.55 and its 200-day Simple Moving Average of $43.13. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average is at $41.98, also above the current price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 38.42, indicating bearish momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -99.19, further suggesting oversold conditions within a bearish trend. The MACD is slightly positive at 0.24, but the overall technical picture points to downward pressure.",
    "The outlook for SGOL is cautiously neutral to slightly bearish in the short term, given its current technical weakness. However, its long-term role as a gold hedge against inflation and market uncertainty provides a supportive fundamental thesis. Over the next 6-12 months, SGOL's performance will likely depend on macroeconomic conditions, inflation trends, and central bank policies. A sustained rise in inflation or increased geopolitical tensions could drive demand for gold, potentially lifting SGOL's price towards its 50-day SMA of $40.55 or even its 200-day SMA of $43.13. Conversely, a strengthening economy and falling inflation could lead to further price declines."
   ],
   "lists": {
    "ProTips": [
     "Consider SGOL as a tactical hedge against inflation or market turmoil rather than a primary growth investment.",
     "Monitor macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation rates and central bank interest rate decisions, as they heavily influence gold prices.",
     "Be aware of the ETF's low expense ratio and significant net assets, which are positive indicators of its efficiency and market acceptance."
    ]
   },
   "links": [
    {
     "text": "CCI",
     "url": "https://clearank.com/stock/cci-stock-analysis/"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "correlations",
   "title": "Market Correlations",
   "text": [
    "How this etf moves relative to other assets",
    "Based on 1 year of daily price data. Correlations may vary over different time periods."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Correlation with S&P 500 (SPY)": "+0.17",
    "Correlation with Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)": "+0.19",
    "Correlation with Bitcoin (BTC)": "+0.14",
    "Correlation with Gold (XAU)": "+0.98"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "key-statistics",
   "title": "Key Statistics",
   "text": [
    "The abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF, managed by Aberdeen Standard Investments, is a commodities-focused ETF with $7.75 billion in net assets and an expense ratio of 0.17%. It tracks the price of gold bullion by holding physical gold. The fund's primary sector exposure is to commodities, specifically gold, which is often sought for its role as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Its asset allocation is heavily concentrated in gold, with 'others' representing 1% of its allocation. The fund's strategy is to provide accessible exposure to gold without the need for direct physical possession, storage, or insurance.",
    "However, the performance of its underlying asset, gold, is influenced by global economic conditions, inflation expectations, and central bank policies. Recent earnings reports from major gold mining companies, such as those with EPS surprises and price changes around their earnings dates, can offer indirect insights into the broader gold sector's health and investor sentiment towards precious metals.",
    "The primary risk for SGOL lies in its direct correlation to the price of gold, which can be volatile and influenced by macroeconomic factors. Concentration risk is also significant, as the fund's performance is tied almost exclusively to a single commodity. Also, shifts in investor sentiment away from gold as a safe-haven asset or a hedge against inflation could negatively impact its price."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "Yield",
       "cells": [
        "0.00%"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day High",
       "cells": [
        "$41.64"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "Day Low",
       "cells": [
        "$41.06"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week High",
       "cells": [
        "52.84"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "52 Week Low",
       "cells": [
        "32.43"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "technical-indicators",
   "title": "Technical Indicators",
   "text": [
    "Technical Rating Neutral RSI Bearish SMA Cross Bearish Price vs SMA Bullish MACD Bullish Moving averages show a lagging Death Cross (50-day: $40.55, 200-day: $43.13), price sits above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA - a mixed posture."
   ],
   "facts": {
    "RSI": "Bearish",
    "SMA Cross": "Bearish",
    "Price vs SMA": "Bullish",
    "MACD": "Bullish"
   },
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "",
     "columns": [],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "RSI (14)",
       "cells": [
        "38.42"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "MACD",
       "cells": [
        "0.24"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 50",
       "cells": [
        "40.55"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "SMA 200",
       "cells": [
        "43.13"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "trade-plans",
   "title": "SGOL Trade Plans",
   "text": [
    "Specific entry, exit, and risk management levels",
    "Enter now if confident",
    "Volatility-Adjusted Stop Loss Calculated based on RSI (38.4) and current market volatility",
    "Consider scaling out: Take 50% profit at Target 1, 30% at Target 2, let 20% run to Target 3"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "TARGET 1": "$41.97",
    "TARGET 2": "$42.79",
    "TARGET 3": "$44.01",
    "STOP LOSS": "$39.53"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "seasonality",
   "title": "Seasonal Patterns",
   "text": [
    "Historical monthly performance trends",
    "Based on 3 years of historical monthly returns"
   ],
   "facts": {
    "Average Jan return": "+2.85%",
    "Average Feb return": "+0.72%",
    "Average Mar return": "+0.84%",
    "Average Apr return": "+1.09%",
    "Average May return": "+1.06%",
    "Average Jun return": "-2.24%",
    "Average Jul return": "+2.22%",
    "Average Aug return": "+1.78%",
    "Average Sep return": "-0.82%",
    "Average Oct return": "+1.31%",
    "Average Nov return": "-0.71%",
    "Average Dec return": "+1.76%"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "risk",
   "title": "Risk & Volatility",
   "facts": {
    "Daily Volatility": "1.73%"
   },
   "lists": {
    "Risk considerations": [
     "Monitor position sizing based on current volatility levels",
     "Consider stop-loss placement beyond recent price range",
     "Diversification helps mitigate single-stock risk exposure"
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "growth",
   "title": "Growth of $10,000",
   "text": [
    "A $10,000 investment in SGOL in September 2016 would be worth about $31,867 today, compared with about $35,030 for the same investment in the S&P 500 benchmark."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "monte-carlo",
   "title": "Monte Carlo Projection (10yr)",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's 10-year Monte Carlo simulation projects that a $10,000 investment in SGOL today could grow to about $25,247 by 2036 in the base case, with a bull case near $48,995 and a bear case around $13,010. Projections are statistical simulations, not guarantees."
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "price-prediction",
   "title": "SGOL ETF Price Prediction: 2030",
   "text": [
    "CleaRank's simulation projects a price near $59.62 for SGOL by 2030 in the base case, from $41.16 today (1.4x over 4 years). The downside path ends near $39.20. These are outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation run on SGOL's historical return distribution, not price targets, and they assume no dividends are reinvested.",
    "Method: 10,000 simulated price paths using SGOL's historical volatility and drift, re-run daily. The base case is the median path; the two outer columns are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, which widen with time because uncertainty compounds. Simulations are not guarantees, and past volatility does not predict future returns. This is analysis, not investment advice."
   ],
   "tables": [
    {
     "caption": "SGOL simulated price paths by year",
     "columns": [
      "Year",
      "Downside (10th pct)",
      "Base case",
      "Upside (90th pct)"
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "label": "2027",
       "cells": [
        "$36.61",
        "$45.15",
        "$55.69"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2028",
       "cells": [
        "$36.83",
        "$49.54",
        "$66.63"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2029",
       "cells": [
        "$37.79",
        "$54.34",
        "$78.14"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2030",
       "cells": [
        "$39.20",
        "$59.62",
        "$90.67"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2031",
       "cells": [
        "$40.92",
        "$65.40",
        "$105"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2032",
       "cells": [
        "$42.93",
        "$71.75",
        "$120"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2033",
       "cells": [
        "$45.20",
        "$78.71",
        "$137"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2034",
       "cells": [
        "$47.72",
        "$86.35",
        "$156"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2035",
       "cells": [
        "$50.50",
        "$94.72",
        "$178"
       ]
      },
      {
       "label": "2036",
       "cells": [
        "$53.55",
        "$104",
        "$202"
       ]
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
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  {
   "id": "faq",
   "title": "Frequently Asked Questions"
  }
 ],
 "faq": [
  {
   "question": "What is the expense ratio for the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL)?",
   "answer": "The expense ratio for SGOL is 0.17%. This means that for every $10,000 invested, $17 would be charged annually for fund expenses."
  },
  {
   "question": "What does the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) hold and what sectors is it concentrated in?",
   "answer": "SGOL holds physical gold bars in secured vaults, aiming to track the price of gold bullion. Its concentration is almost entirely within the commodities sector, specifically gold."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the distribution yield for the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL)?",
   "answer": "The abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) has a distribution yield of 0%."
  },
  {
   "question": "How has SGOL performed against its category over different timeframes?",
   "answer": "SGOL's year-to-date return is 5.80%, compared to its category's 29.92%. Over 1 year, SGOL returned 32.83% versus the category's 71.37%. However, over longer periods like 3, 5, and 10 years, SGOL has shown stronger relative performance against its category, with returns of 32.71%, 20.04%, and 13.05% respectively, compared to the category's 17.21%, 12.75%, and 7.26%."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the price prediction for SGOL ETF in 2030?",
   "answer": "Based on Monte Carlo simulations, the base case price projection for SGOL in 2030 is $59.62. The downside projection is $39.20, and the upside projection is $90.67. These figures represent statistical simulation outcomes, not guaranteed price targets."
  },
  {
   "question": "What are the main risks associated with investing in SGOL?",
   "answer": "The main risks include the inherent volatility of gold prices, significant concentration risk as the fund is tied to a single commodity, and potential shifts in investor sentiment away from gold as a safe-haven asset or inflation hedge."
  },
  {
   "question": "What is the current technical outlook for SGOL?",
   "answer": "SGOL is currently exhibiting bearish technical signals, trading below its key moving averages (50-day SMA, 200-day SMA, 20-day EMA) with a bearish RSI and CCI, indicating downward price momentum."
  }
 ],
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   {
    "ticker": "REPL",
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    "text": "United States Natural Gas Fund",
    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/us-natural-gas-fund-ung/"
   },
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    "ticker": "USO",
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    "url": "https://clearank.com/etf/us-oil-fund-uso/"
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