USAR Stock Forecast 2025: Why USA Rare Earth Could Be America’s Next Industrial Boom

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is a super interesting company that still hasn’t exploded compared to its sector. Throughout the year investors have been wary of trade restrictions with  China, which is the queen of rare earths and produces large scale critical materials used in fighter jets, missiles, electric cars, phones, basically almost anything you can think of.

Since April 2025, China has blocked the production of such materials for the U.S. and Europe because of the trade war. This created a huge shortage, and prices have skyrocketed several times, even up to as much as sixty times the original price.

The impact for the wider economy has been significant as without these materials, companies that manufacture drones or chips, for example, are in a bottleneck. The U.S. and the West have not been sitting back and looked for quick solutions since they can no longer rely on China.

Now this is where a company like USAR steps in to fill the void. It’s an American company mining rare earths in an expansive site in Texas. They’re also building a factory to produce magnets that are found in almost every advanced technological product.

What’s interesting is that unlike other companies whose stocks have already skyrocketed in this sector, USAR still hasn’t exploded, and the upside potential is significant.

USAR Upside Potential & Stock Price Forecast

According to Shaun David, senior market analyst at CleaRank, “USA Rare Earth (USAR), is priced well below its full potential.” In his full analysis he outlined three factors that could drive the stock price of USAR to explode upwards. 

Firstly, the Pentagon is pouring billions into companies that can produce rare earths, including 75 million dollars specifically for USAR. They basically see it as the key to reducing dependency on China.”

Second, their mine is unique as it has almost all types of rare earths.

Third, by 2026 they will already start producing magnets in the United States, something that hardly exists there today. They’ve already signed major agreements with big companies in the defense and tech industries.

In addition, the crisis with China is worsening, and the shortage is skyrocketing prices. USAR also recently announced a major acquisition of the British company LCM and a 125 million dollar fundraising, which shows they’re serious and moving fast. 

Shaud David summed up his bullish view, “The stock is still cheap. While companies like MP Materials jumped by 340% this year, USAR still hasn’t made that big leap.”

Stronger Supply Chain from Minerals to Microchips

While companies like SEALSQ (NASDAQ: LAES) are fortifying America’s digital security backbone with quantum-resistant semiconductors, USAR is rebuilding the physical foundation and securing the raw materials that power advanced defense systems.
Together, these firms highlight a growing U.S. industrial movement that is strengthening supply chains from minerals to microchips in response to China’s tightening export policies.

As Shaun David, puts it:

“If SEALSQ is securing our encryption layer, USAR is securing the materials that make that technology possible.”

Limited Downside Risks for USAR

Despite all signals indicating a strong bullish path for USAR, it’s not perfect. There could be delays in construction, increased competition, or China could reopen exports and lower prices. The last scenario is unlikely in the near term, however, it’s theoretically possible and should be factored in. But right now, the trend looks quite clear, the West needs companies like USAR, and the government is pushing them forward. As Beijing tightens control over exports, the Pentagon and U.S. industrial sector are moving fast to de-risk supply chains.

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Disclosure:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only. All prices, data, and forecasts reflect market conditions at the time of writing and the latest fact-check (as of the date specified above). Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.